NFL Totals Betting: Week 7 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 10/17/2012
The “over” on the total line was the strong play last week in the NFL with 10 of the 14 games on the slate going over the closing line. A perfect 3-0 showing in Week 6 raised my three-week record to a profitable 7-2 on my top three total line plays and finally took me over .500 for the season at 10-8.
Each week of the NFL regular season, my goal is to uncover a few golden opportunities to cash in on the “over/under” bet by uncovering the value in the total lines. The following are my top three football picks for Week 7 in the NFL with lines provided by BetOnline. (All times EST)
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Cleveland Browns vs. Indianapolis Colts (1 p.m. CBS)
Total Line: 45
Cleveland ran up 34 points against Cincinnati last Sunday to finally notch its first win of the season, but the Browns’ offense is far from potent overall. It is still struggling with some major growing pains behind rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden and is ranked 25th in the NFL in total yards per game.
The Colts are another team trying to find their way behind rookie quarterback Andrew Luck. He has already shown some glimpses of greatness in his first five starts. However, overall Indianapolis’s offense is averaging just 20 points a game. It looked especially bad last week in a 35-9 loss to the New York Jets. The Colts’ defense is ranked third against the pass, which should also help to keep the overall score down in this game.
Game Betting Trends
The total line for this matchup opened at 45 and has held steady throughout the week. I am in love with number considering that the total has stayed under in six of Cleveland’s last eight games against the AFC and in seven of the Colts last eight games at home. It has also stayed under in three of the last four meetings between the two.
Game Pick: UNDER
New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 p.m. FOX)
Total Line: 49.5
The Saints are always a threat to put a ton of points on the board with Drew Brees still running the show, but they have had their issues in the past scoring points against Tampa Bay. In the last five meetings they have failed to score more than 20 points in three of the games. The possible return of linebacker Jonathan Vilma might also spark a New Orleans’ defense that has been less than stellar so far.
Tampa Bay snapped a three-game losing streak by posting 38 points on Kansas City last Sunday, but it is still struggling with consistency on the offensive side of the ball. The Buccaneers are ranked 27th in the NFL in total yards per game and 25th in passing. Their defense has done a good job at keeping opponents out the end zone; giving up an average of just 20.2 points a game.
Game Betting Trends
The total has crept up to 50 with some other books but remains at 49.5 with BetOnline. The majority of the experts are leaning heavy towards the over, but the past trends in this matchup are pushing me in the opposite direction. The total has stayed under in the last seven meetings between the two with the average closing line hovering right around the 50-point mark. This is going to be much more of a defensive battle than people expect, which will work to keep the scoring down.
Game Pick: UNDER
Green Bay Packers vs. St. Louis Rams (1 p.m. FOX)
Total Line: 44.5
We have been waiting for the real Packers offense to show up all season long, but last Sunday night’s 42-24 beatdown of previously undefeated Houston could be a glimpse of what’s to come. Since being held to just 12 points in Week 3 against Seattle, Green Bay has scored at least 27 points in each of its last three games. The problem is a defense that has given up an average of 27 points in the same three games.
Nobody is going to refer to St. Louis as an offensive juggernaut, but it still finds a way to score points when it needs to the most. The Rams are only averaging 18.3 points a game, which has been good enough for a 3-3 start. They should be able to eclipse that average this week against Green Bay’s defense after facing much tougher tests against Miami, Arizona, and Chicago over the past few weeks.
Game Betting Trends
The total line opened at 44.5 and has actually slid down a half a point with a couple of books, which means we are pointed in the right direction. The total has gone over in seven of the Packers last nine games overall and in nine of their last 12 games against the NFC. Head-to-head, it has gone over in five of the last seven meetings and in the last four games played in St. Louis. As long as the Rams hit their season average, the Packers will take care of the rest.
Game Pick: OVER
Year-to-Date Record: 10-8
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