Weekly Philadelphia Eagles Betting Picks: Week 10 vs. Dallas
by Dave Schwab - 11/7/2012
The Dallas Cowboys and the Philadelphia Eagles clash this Sunday at Lincoln Financial Field in a crucial NFC East showdown that will most likely mean the end of the line for one of these teams’ season. The game is set to get underway at 4:25 p.m. (ET) and it will be broadcast nationally by FOX.
This weekly betting preview is part of an ongoing series where I take a closer look at each week’s matchup and use my years of experience covering the Eagles to offer a free NFL pick utilizing Doc’s Sports Unit Betting System. When wagering on the NFL, you should always try and zero in on what you know best. Concentrating your handicapping efforts on a particular team is a great way to enhance your overall betting strategy.
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Betting Lines by BetOnline
Pointspread: Dallas -1
Total Line: 44.5
Game Overview: Dallas
The Cowboys have already lost one must-win game in November with a 19-13 setback to Atlanta last Sunday as four-point underdogs on the road. The loss dropped them to 3-5 on the year both straight up and against the spread. The total stayed “under” the 47-point line in that game and has now stayed under in five of their first eight games.
At the center of the storm in Big D is veteran quarterback Tony Romo. He has thrown only 10 touchdowns this season but has been picked off an NFL-high 13 times. Most of those miscues have been in the red zone or at crucial times of the game. The loss of running back DeMarco Murray, who is listed as doubtful for this game, has crippled the running game, and, as a whole, the offense is averaging 18.8 points a game. The Dallas defense has done a good job against the pass and in total yards allowed, but it is giving up an average of 22.6 points a game.
Game Overview: Philadelphia
You could basically plug in the same numbers as above and just change the names for Philadelphia. It is also 3-5 SU on the year but a costly 1-6-1 ATS. The total has stayed under in five of its first eight games, and the offense is averaging a paltry 16.6 points a game.
Most of the Eagles’ troubles have been pinned on their quarterback Michael Vick, who has chucked nine interceptions while tacking on five lost fumbles, but that is the end result of the problem not the cause. Philadelphia’s already sketchy offensive line has been further decimated with injuries, including right tackle Todd Herremans, who went down last week with an ankle injury. Vick has been running for his life all season long, and that should not change against Dallas. What has really been troubling is the play of the defense ever since head coach Andy Reid decided to fire his coordinator after a Week 6 loss to Detroit. It is every man for himself in Philly these days as nobody’s job on this team is safe at this point.
Game Betting Trends
The Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against the NFC East. The total has stayed under in seven of their last eight games on the road and in eight of their last 11 games overall.
The Eagles are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four home games. The total has stayed under in seven of their last eight games against the division and in seven of their last 10 games following an ATS loss.
Head-to-head, the underdog is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings. The total has stayed under in five of the last seven meetings overall and in the last three games played in Philadelphia.
If I would have gone against every one of my instincts with Philadelphia this season, I would be having an incredibly successful year. The painfully obvious reality is that this team is getting worse and worse with each passing week. You get the feeling that Reid has finally lost the locker room and there are no magical comebacks waiting to be pulled out of his sleeve like he has been able to do so many times before.
What makes handicapping the sides in this matchup so difficult is the fact that Dallas appears to be headed in the exact same direction. Somebody has to win this game (although a tie would be fitting given each team’s current form), but it will definitely not take a whole lot of points to get it done. Utilizing Doc’s Unit Betting System, I am going with my biggest play of the season on the Eagles with 6 units on the under.
Take the UNDER 44.5 in Dallas vs. Philadelphia for 6 Units
Year-to-Date Record: -17 Units (-$1900)
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