Weekly Philadelphia Eagles Betting Picks: Week 8 vs. Falcons
by Dave Schwab - 10/25/2012
The undefeated Atlanta Falcons will look to pick up where they left off before last week’s bye when they head to Lincoln Financial Field this Sunday afternoon for a NFC tilt against the Philadelphia Eagles. The game is set to get underway at 1 p.m. (EST) and it will be broadcast nationally by FOX.
This weekly betting preview is part of an ongoing series where I analyze each Eagles matchup and use my years of experience covering the team to offer a free NFL pick utilizing Doc’s Sports Unit Betting System. You should always try and zero in on what you know best when it comes to wagering on the NFL, and concentration on a particular team has proven itself to be a profitable part on any betting strategy.
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Betting Lines by BetOnline
Pointspread: Philadelphia -1
Total Line: 46
Game Overview: Atlanta
Atlanta has stormed its way through the first six games with a perfect record straight up and a profitable 4-2 record against the spread. The total has stayed “under” in four of its last five games. Before heading into their bye week, the Falcons snuck by Oakland 23-20 at home as 9.5-point favorites. After relatively easy victories in their first three games, the bullseye on their back has gotten wider with the margin of victory in their last three games just a combined 12 points.
“Balance” has to be the key word when describing this team. With fifth-year vet Matt Ryan at the helm, Atlanta’s passing game is averaging 274.8 yards a game to pace an offense that is ranked sixth in the NFL in scoring with an average of 28.5 points a game. The only wrinkle has been a rushing attack that is averaging just 86.5 yards per game. Complementing this performance is a rock-solid defense that has held its opponents to an average of just 18.8 points a game.
Game Overview: Philadelphia
The Eagles’ bye week could not have come at a better time after their defense blew two straight fourth quarter leads to drop the team to 3-3 SU on the year. This team has been murder to wager on this season with a 1-4-1 record ATS. The total has stayed “under” in three of its last four games. The breakdown on defense led to the firing of defensive coordinator Juan Castillo, who has been under fire right from the start after coming over from the offensive side of the ball at the start of last season. The talent is certainly there, so it will now be up to Todd Bowles to shape this unit back into one of the best in the NFL.
Offensively, this season has been all about Michael Vick’s inability to take care of the ball, especially in the red zone where his numerous turnovers have been costly. If he gets off to another shaky start this Sunday expect to hear Philly’s famous “Boo Birds” out in full force only to be followed by chants for rookie quarterback Nick Foles to take his place. You cannot help but get the feeling that everyone’s job is on the line heading into this game, so it will be interesting to see how the team responds.
Game Betting Trends
The Falcons are 36-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games following an ATS loss. The total has stayed under in five of their last six games following a SU win and in 11 of their last 16 games following a bye.
The Eagles are a perfect 13-0 SU in their last 13 games following a bye and 5-1 ATS in their last six games after a bye week. The total has stayed under in 13 of their last 16 games following a bye.
Head-to-head, the home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. The total has stayed under in six of the last nine meetings overall and in three of the last five games in Philadelphia.
The bye week will hopefully do wonders for both the Eagles and my picks after burying myself the first six weeks trying to figure this team out. I think the time off will serve Philadelphia well as Andy Reid ends up extending his winning streak to 14 straight after a bye as head coach of the team. Current form has shaken my confidence to the core to wager on it, so I am going in a different direction for this game.
One thing I do know for sure is the Eagles’ defense will be far more aggressive under Bowles and should be able to rattle Ryan right from the start. The result will be a low-scoring affair in which neither offense ever gets fully on track. Utilizing Doc’s Sports Service Unit Betting System, I am going with the under in this game for 3 Units.
Take the UNDER 46 in Atlanta vs. Philadelphia for 3 Units
YTD Record: -12 Units (-$1350)
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