Free CFL Picks Week 12 from Expert Canadian Football Handicapper
One of the betting angles that is unique to the CFL is a home-and-home series where two teams play one another in consecutive weeks. Since there are only nine teams in this league playing an 18-game regular season, there is a much higher level of familiarity with one another, especially when playing two games in back-to-back weeks.
I went with a parlay play in last week's free pick for Doc's by taking Saskatchewan minus two points at home against Winnipeg with the backend play on the "over" 61 points. The Roughriders won with relative ease in a 38-24 victory to cover both bets. This week's pick focuses on the backend game of this home-and-home West Division clash.
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CFL Week 12 Betting Overview
Week 12 of the CFL regular season gets underway on Thursday night with an inter-division clash between the 3-7 Montreal Alouettes and the 5-5 British Columbia Lions. BC is listed as a 7.5-point home favorite with the total set at 49.5 points.
The Lions won the first meeting this season 23-16 as three-point road favorites, with the total staying under 50. BC has now won 15 of the last 17 meetings straight-up and it has a 7-1 edge against the spread in its last eight home games against Montreal.
Hamilton will try and win for just the second time this season SU against eight losses as a heavy 12-point road underdog in Saturday's East Division clash against the 4-6-1 Ottawa RedBlacks. The total line for this game is set at 54 points.
Ottawa is on the move in the East with three wins in a row both SU and ATS, including a 37-18 victory against Hamilton as a 3.5-point road favorite to get this run started. The RedBlacks are now 5-1 ATS in their last six games against the Tiger-Cats.
The final game on Saturday's CFL slate is the backend of a home-and-home series between 8-1-1 Calgary and 7-3 Edmonton. The Stampeders extended their current SU winning streak to six games with last week's 39-18 victory against the Eskimos as 10-point home favorites. They have been opened as six-point road favorites to complete the two-game sweep. The betting line for the total in this West Division tilt has been set at 56 points.
Calgary has dominated this rivalry in recent years with a SU 15-3 record in the last 18 meetings. The total has gone over in the last four games between the two.
CFL Free Pick of the Week: Saskatchewan Roughriders at Winnipeg Blue Bombers
The venue shifts to Investors Group Field for Saturday's rematch, and this time around the Blue Bombers are set as two-point home favorites with the betting line for the total sitting at 60 points.
Saskatchewan has overcome a slow 1-3 SU start to win four out of its last five games to move to 5-4 SU with a 6-3 record ATS. The total has gone over in three of its last five games behind an offense that has scored an average of 37.2 points during this same span. In last week's win at home against Winnipeg, Kevin Glenn completed 26 of his 36 passing attempts for 386 yards and three touchdowns in one of his best performances of the season. He spread the ball around to six different receivers led by Bakari Grant's seven receptions for 139 yards. Glenn has now thrown 19 touchdowns on the year, which is second-most in the CFL.
The one thing that Winnipeg has done extremely well in its run to a 7-3 record both SU and ATS is put points on the board on a consistent basis. This offense under the direction of Matt Nichols at quarterback is averaging 33.2 points per game, and last Sunday's loss was the first time it failed to cross the 30-point mark in its last eight games. Nichols has already thrown for more than 3,000 yards in 10 previous starts , and he is tied with Glenn for second in the CFL in touchdown passes. The one thing that the Blue Bombers have not been able to do is keep opposing teams out of the end zone with a points-allowed average of 31.6 PPG. It is easy to see why eight of their first 10 games have gone over.
With the total going over 61 in last week's game, it has gone over in seven of the last nine meetings between these two West Division foes. I really would have thought that the betting line for this game's total would have been around 63 to 64 points given the kind of numbers each of these teams have been putting up lately. The fact that it is still sitting at 60 points makes it easy to go with the over again as my top pick in Round 2 of this matchup.
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