The first eight games of the new CFL regular season are in the books, and the underdogs are boasting a perfect 8-0 record against the spread. I was able to cash in on Ottawa as a road underdog in last week's free CFL pick for Doc's, but this time around a solid play on the total line has caught my eye for my top free CFL play in Week 3.
CFL Week 3 Betting Overview
Thursday night's inter-division matchup between the British Columbia Lions and the Montreal Alouettes get things going in Week 3, and the Lions come in as slight 2.5-point road favorites. The total for this game has been set at 49.5 . BC is 5-1 ATS in its last six games when favored by three or fewer points and Montreal has failed to cover in 10 of their last 13 home games.
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The Lions have an overall 26-9 edge ATS in the last 35 meetings, and the total has gone "over" in seven of the last 10 meetings in Montreal.
In the first of two games this Saturday, the Toronto Argonauts will go on the road to face the Ottawa RedBlacks in an early-season tilt in the East Division. Ottawa is currently listed as a 5.5-point favorite with the total set at 56. The Argonauts were one quarter away from a 2-0 start, but they ended up losing to BC last week 28-15 as slight 1.5-point home favorites. They are now just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games.
The RedBlacks came away from a home-and-home series against Calgary 0-1-1 SU (2-0 ATS) to start the new season and they open up division play with an 8-3 mark ATS in their last 11 games against a team from the East. Ottawa is 2-1 both SU and ATS in its last three games against Toronto with the total staying under in all three contests.
Wrapping things up on Saturday night is another inter-division tilt between the Hamilton Tiger-Cats and the Saskatchewan Roughriders. Both teams are still looking for its first SU victory of the year, and the Roughriders have been listed as slight 1.5-point home favorites to come out on top. The total for this game has been set at 53, and it has stayed under in seven of the last nine games between the two.
Hamilton is coming off a Week 2 bye after losing its season opener 32-15 against Toronto as a 3.5-point road favorite. The Tiger-Cats are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games and the Roughriders are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games played on Saturday.
CFL Free Pick of the Week: Calgary Stampeders at Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Calgary failed to cover two of the bigger CFL spreads so far, and it has been listed as a 3.5-point road favorite for this Friday's trip to Investor Group Field to face the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. The betting line for the total in this game has been set at 56.
The Stampeders closed out the 2016 CFL season as the highest-scoring team in the league with an average of 32.6 points a game. They also boasted a stout defense that led the CFL in points allowed (20.5). This year's offense picked up right where it left off with 74 points scored the first two games, but defensively Calgary allowed 70 total points while getting burnt for 725 passing yards and five touchdowns through the air.
Winnipeg came off a Week 1 bye to get past Saskatchewan 43-40 in overtime last week as a slight 1.5-point road underdog. Matt Nichols put the ball up 36 times and he connected on 23 completions for 331 yards and four scores. Weston Dressler caught six balls for 124 yards and two of those scoring strikes. Much like Calgary, the Blue Bombers' defensive secondary remains suspect after allowing 377 yards and four touchdowns through the air.
I am expecting both of these offenses to continue to have success moving the ball through the air on Friday night. Going back to last year's games, the winning team scored at least 30 points in each contest to help take the total over in two games with the other ending as a push. Going back over the last 10 meetings in Winnipeg, eight of the games went over or ended as a push. Stick with the over in this one against a very favorable 56-point line.
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