Free CFL Picks Week 6 from Expert Canadian Football Handicapper
I went with Saskatchewan and the 10 points on the road against Calgary last week in my free weekly CFL pick for Doc's Sports, and once again the Stampeders went on to prove that they are still the team to beat in this league with a 27-10 victory that more than covered the spread.
This week, I am switching gears for my top free pick with a play of the total line for one of the top inter-division battles on the slate.
CFL Week 6 Betting Overview
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Friday night's action in the CFL features a huge West Division showdown between the 4-1 British Columbia Lions and the 4-0 Edmonton Eskimos in a 9:30 p.m. (ET) kickoff at Commonwealth Stadium. The Eskimos are favored by three-points at home after beating the Lions 30-27 back in Week 1 as four-point underdogs on the road. The total stayed "under" the closing 60.5-point line in that first meeting and it has been set at 54.5 points for Friday night.
While Edmonton has a straight-up 4-1 edge in the last five meetings, BC has been able to cover against the spread in four of the last six games in this heated rivalry. The total has stayed under in the last three meetings.
In the first of two Saturday night CFL matchups, the 3-2 Toronto Argonauts will go on the road to face 1-3 Saskatchewan as 2.5-point underdogs with the total set at 52.5 points for this 6:30 p.m. start at Mosaic Stadium.
Going back over the last 10 meetings in this inter-division clash, the home team has won the last seven games SU. The Roughriders have been able to cover ATS in three of the last five meetings and the total has stayed under in all three of those covers.
Later Saturday night in a 9:30 p.m. start at McMahon Stadium in Calgary, the 0-4 Hamilton Tiger-Cats will try and snap their current winless streak against the 3-1-1 Stampeders as heavy 12.5-point underdogs. The total line for this inter-division tilt has been set at 55.
Calgary has dominated this matchup over the years with 10 SU victories in a row going all the way back to the 2012 season. In more recent years, the Stamps have also covered the spread in four of their last six games against Hamilton. The total has stayed under the closing line in the last nine games between the two.
CFL Free Pick of the Week: Montreal Alouettes at Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Week 6 in the CFL gets started on Thursday night with Montreal going on the road to square off against Winnipeg at Investors Group Field in a 7:30 p.m. start. The current betting lines have the Blue Bombers favored by four points at home with the total set at 51.
Montreal has lost three of its first five games both SU and ATS, but one of the two victories was a stunning 30-23 upset of Calgary at home in Week 4 as a four-point underdog. The total in that game went over the 49.5-point closing line after staying under in its other four games. The Alouettes are only averaging 20.2 points per game this season, but Darian Durant has shown some flashes of brilliance as the fourth-leading passer in the CFL with 1,392 yards. He has also tossed six touchdowns against six interceptions this year so turnovers could also be a factor in this game.
The Blue Bombers have battled their way to a SU 2-2 start while going 3-1 ATS. They lost a wild one against BC last week 45-42 but still covered as four-point road underdogs. The total easily went "over" the closing 54.5-point closing line in that game and it has gone over in three of their first four contests. With Matt Nichols throwing the ball and Andrew Harris running it, Winnipeg has been able to average 32 points a game on offense. The main reason for the early .500 record is a defense that has allowed 34.8 PPG to its opponents.
The Alouettes are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a SU loss, and the total has gone over in two of their last three road games. Winnipeg is 4-1 ATS in its last five games coming off a SU loss, and the total has gone over in 13 of its last 16 games overall. Head-to-head in this matchup, the Blue Bombers have won six of the last eight games SU and the total has gone over in two of the last three meetings.
With 1,080 passing yards and eight passing touchdowns on the year, Nichols should have another big night against Montreal. I also see the Alouettes putting some points on the board against a very soft Bombers' defense. While I have Winnipeg winning this game with relative ease, the top pick in this one is the over on the current 51-point total line.
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