Free MLB Picks Friday 9/25/2020 and Opening Line Report
We’re seeing less aces and more subpar pitchers as we lead up to the MLB postseason. The subpar pitchers are the pitchers we’ll look to fade before the MLB playoffs begins. Most of the playoff teams won’t be pitching subpar pitchers, and that’s why they’ll be in the playoffs. Here are the leans for September 25 in the MLB.
Red Sox vs Braves 9/25/20 (-161, 10)
The Red Sox and Braves will more than likely score plenty of runs in this game.
Chris Mazza will take the hill for the Red Sox with a 1-2 record in five starts and eight games along with a 5.40 ERA and a 4.06 FIP on the season. Mazza is walking 4.68 batters per nine innings and has an extremely high BABIP. Mazza lacks ground balls and is average with his strikeouts.
Meanwhile, the Braves will send out Kyle Wright, who is 2-4 in seven starts with a 5.74 ERA and a 6.02 FIP. Wright is walking 6.03 batters per nine innings and allowing 1.72 home runs per nine innings.
The over is the play in this one behind two solid offenses.
Key trends: Over is 6-1 in Red Sox last 7 Friday games.
Early lean: Braves, Over
Pirates vs Indians 9/25/20 (-251, 7.5)
When looking at the ERA’s between Mitch Keller and Carlos Carrasco, this game seems like an under game. However, the Pirates offense is starting to get hot, and the team has won three straight games.
Mitch Keller is 1-1 in four starts with a 3.24 ERA but a 6.72 FIP. Keller has been lucky as he’s walking 5.4 batters per nine innings and allowing 2.16 batters per nine innings. He’s left 97.2 percent of runners on base this season (through just four games).
For the Indians, they’ll pitch Carlos Carrasco, who has had a solid year all around. Carrasco is 3-4 in 11 starts with a high strikeout rate and average walk rate. He’s limiting the home runs and has a 2.90 ERA and a 3.51 FIP.
The Indians rarely give run support, but they should score a couple runs against Keller in this one, at home.
Key trends: Under is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 overall.
Early Lean: Indians, Under
Astros vs Rangers 9/25/20 (+151, 8.5)
In this match-up, we’ve got two pitchers who aren’t well known in Kyle Cody of the Rangers and Jose Urquidy of the Astros.
Cody has a 1.53 ERA but a 3.69 FIP for the Rangers in seven games and four starts. Cody has a solid strikeout rate but is walking 5.09 batters per nine innings. He’s also struggling to get a high ground ball rate but has limited home runs this season.
Urquidy gets very limited strikeouts and walks 3.18 batters per nine innings with a low ground ball rate but somehow still has a 2.78 ERA with a 4.32 FIP. The Rangers bats don’t have much power or really anything special at the plate.
If the Astros can take advantage of Cody’s walks, they’ll win this game on the road.
Key trends: Under is 5-0 in Astros last 5 games as a favorite.
Early Lean: Astros, Under
Tigers vs Royals 9/25/20 (-161, 8.5)
The Royals will send out Brad Keller, who has been getting no love this season, even with a 2.77 ERA.
Keller gets a high ground ball rate but low strikeouts and doesn’t allow home runs. That’s why his FIP is 3.65 and above average.
He’ll go up against Spencer Turnbull of the Tigers. He is walking 4.7 batters per nine innings but also has 8.01 strikeouts per nine innings. Turnbull also limits the long ball and gets over 50 percent of ground balls.
The Royals offense seems healthy and prepared. They’re not making the playoffs. However, if the Royals get some walks and get on base, there should be some runs batted in on the box score.
Key trends: Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
Early lean: Royals, Under
Reds vs Twins 9/25/20 (-161, 8.5)
The Reds and Twins will have a solid showdown between their two pitchers.
Jose Berrios of the Twins will take the hill for his 12th and final start of the regular season. Berrios has a high strikeout rate and below average walk rate, and he has limited home runs well. He’s got a 3.72 ERA and a 3.81 FIP on the season. His stats basically mirror his advanced metrics.
Tyler Mahle will give it a go for the Reds for his 9th start of the season. Mahle is 2-2 with a 3.57 ERA and a 3.95 FIP. He’s got a very high strikeout rate and is below average when it comes to walks. Mahle has struggled to get ground balls this season at just 30.9 percent but has limited batting average of balls in play to .240, which is very solid.
The Twins bats have an edge with Berrios on the mound, but it’s closer than some would expect.
Key trends: Under is 6-1 in Twins last 7 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Early lean: Twins, Under
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