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Dallas Stars vs. Vegas Golden Knights Series Predictions and Betting Odds

by Matt Zitt - 5/18/2023

Dallas Stars vs. Vegas Golden Knights series predictions Adin Hill

The Vegas Golden Knights will go to battle with the Dallas Stars in the NHL’s 2023 Western Conference Final. The series will begin Friday night in Sin City as Vegas is the higher seed and receives home ice advantage. The VGK are priced as small favorites in the Western Conference Final series despite Dallas winning the regular season series. The Knights are priced at -135 to win the series, while bettors can grab Dallas at +115.

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Vegas defeated Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers in Round 2, while Dallas survived the Kraken in seven games. The Knights will be playing in the Western Conference Final for the fourth time in their six years since joining the NHL. Dallas is playing in their second Western Conference Final in the past four seasons.

The Stars had the edge head-to-head in 2023 winning two out of the three regular season games. The last two meetings were decided by only one goal, including a 2-1 shootout victory for the Stars on April 8th. Dallas goalie Jake Oettinger started all three games vs Vegas in the regular season and posted a .967 save percentage and one shutout.

Vegas and Dallas have played once before in the playoffs. The Stars defeated the VGK in the 2020 Western Conference Final in five games. It was a tight and low scoring series, with Dallas outscoring Vegas 9-8 and winning each game by only one goal. Two games also went into overtime with Dallas winning both.

Series Prediction:

The Golden Knights are led by center Jack Eichel, who has tallied six goals and eight assists so far in the playoffs. Chandler Stephenson has also registered six goals, while captain Mark Stone and winger Jonathan Marchessault each have five goals. Between the posts, Adin Hill has taken over starting duties with Lauren Brossoit going down with injury. Hill has started the past three games, giving up 2.19 goals against average and a .934 save percentage. Vegas’ special teams is a real concern as their penalty kill is only operating at 60% while their own power play is clicking at 17.5%.

The Stars are led by Finn Roope Hintz, who has developed into a superstar. He has a league-high 19 points in 13 playoff games in 2023. Oettinger commands the crease and really has not played his best hockey in the postseason despite advancing. Regarded as one of the best current NHL goalies, he is 13-5 in the postseason with a .900 save percentage. The Stars also possess a very dynamic blueline. Their top pairing of Miro Heiskanen and Ryan Suter are the key reason their penalty kill is operating at 83.3% efficiency. When these two are on the ice, Dallas has only given up six goals all postseason.

I look at two key pieces of information when predicting who is going to win. Dallas has the better special team’s units, which will be crucial in tight games. I will also take Oettinger over a back up goalie any day of the week. It is fair to assume if Oettinger was playing more consistently than Dallas would be favored in this series. Even with Vegas having home ice advantage, there are too many question marks heading into the conference finals. I am confident Dallas will take care of business and march into the Stanley Cup Finals.

Pick: Dallas Stars in seven games

Best Bets:

The Vegas Golden Knights are at -135 to advance to the Stanley Cup Finals and bettors can grab Dallas at +115. I will be taking the plus money as I believe the Stars have the better goalie and power kill. I think Vegas still finds a way to force this series into seven games and love the plus money for the Stars to win in seven. Dallas winning in seven games is priced at +550. Also grab the +200 odds of the series heading into a final Game 7.

Pick: Dallas Stars to win series +115

Pick: Series to go seven games +200

Pick: Dallas to win in 7 games +550

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