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Expert NHL Handicapping Roundup + Saturday Free Pick for 4/6/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 4/5/2024

Expert NHL handicapping roundup and Saturday free pick Pierre Engvall NY Islanders

The season is winding down, and it’s crunch time for teams around the league. Division and wild card races are tightening up, as teams try and crack the 16-team playoff bracket. As of now, Boston, Florida, New York (Rangers), Carolina, Dallas, Colorado, Winnipeg, and Vancouver have all clinched the playoffs. The Stars are the hottest team in the league right now, while the Flyers and Capitals have picked the worst time to go on a four- and five-game losing streak. As always, the work week is ending, and now it’s time to find out how to spend our money this weekend so let’s get into the numbers.

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Eastern Conference Wild Card Race

As it stands now, there are six teams vying for one spot in the Eastern Conference. The New York Islanders currently have the final wild card spot in the conference, but there are five other teams within seven points, with six or seven games remaining. Not only that, but the Philadelphia Flyers are in the last guaranteed spot thanks to a tiebreaker with the Isles as they too sit with 82 points with six games remaining. Below are the odds of the team making the playoffs and remaining games for each of these six teams:

Philadelphia Flyers: -130 / Games Remaining- @ Buffalo, @ Colombus, @ Montreal, @ New York (Rangers), New Jersey, Washington

The Flyers are not in a good situation. They have lost five straight and are set to begin a four-game road trip. Add the five-game skid to a 3-9 record in their last 12 road games and you may begin to doubt the Flyers ability to close out the season. They will get their best from Buffalo, New Jersey, and Washington, and they are 0-3 against the Rangers this season. Philadelphia is ahead of schedule, but they will fail to close it out.

My Pick- Out, completely.

New York Islanders: +126 / Games Remaining- Nashville, h/a New York (Rangers), Montreal, @ New Jersey, Pittsburgh

If the Islanders can win the ones they are supposed to, against Montreal, New Jersey, and Pittsburgh, and steal one win against the Rangers or Predators then this team should be in the playoffs as the last wild card. It is worth noting that they could end up leapfrogging the Flyers and laying claim to the last guaranteed spot in the Metro Division.

My Pick- They are in as the last guaranteed spot in the Metro Division.

Washington Capitals- +180 / Games Remaining- @ Carolina, Ottawa, @ Detroit, @ Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Boston, @ Philadelphia

The Caps have lost their last four contests and have been usurped by the Isles for the last wild card spot, for now. Unfortunately for Washington, their remaining schedule is the hardest among the teams on this list and they have little room for error now that they have to play catch-up to the Islanders. The offense just won’t get it done.

My Pick- Out.

Detroit Red Wings: -115 / Games Remaining- New York (Rangers), Buffalo, Washington, @ Pittsburgh, @ Toronto, h/a Montreal

With perhaps the easiest schedule of the list, the Red Wings have the best odds of making the playoffs. They also benefit from having one less game played than the Islanders and Penguins and will therefore have an extra chance at getting some points. The Red Wings also benefit from having gone 2-1 against the Islanders this season, in the event of a tie.

My Pick- They are in as the last wild card.

Pittsburgh Penguins: +350 / Games Remaining- Tampa Bay, @ Toronto, Detroit, Boston, Nashville, @ New York (Islanders)

It is worth noting the tremendous value that the Penguins have with the +350 number on their sleeve. They are just three points of the final guaranteed spot in the Metro Division and the last wild card. Their remaining schedule is not easy as they are all against playoff or playoff hopeful opponents. It isn’t likely, but at +350 it might be an option.

My Pick- Out, but there is a chance.

The New Jersey Devils and Buffalo Sabres are also within seven points and not out of the race yet, but their playoff hopes are minimal.

Dallas Doubling Down

The Stars have been at or near the top of the Western Conference standings for the whole campaign, but they are now taking it to another level and at the right time. Between March 12th and March 14th, the Stars allowed 10 goals and lost back-to-back home games against New Jersey and Florida. In the eight games since then, Dallas has allowed just 11 goals, Jake Oettinger has posted back-to-back shutout performances, and they have won all eight contests. Since the back-to-back losses, Dallas is 8-0 with a +23-goal differential. Thanks to the hot streak, Dallas now sits alone at the top of the Central Division with 105 points while Colorado (102) and Winnipeg (98) follow. They still have to go to Colorado and host Winnipeg, but at -750, they are the heavy favorites to win the Central this season and with a three-point lead and tiebreaker over Vancouver, the Stars are likely to finish as the conference’s top seed.

The roster is loaded. On a roster that showcases Jason Robertson, Joe Pavelski, Matt Duchene, Roope Hintz, and Jamie Benn it is 20-year-old Wyatt Johnston who is the teams leading goal scorer. Robertson leads the club with 77 points, while four other Stars have recorded more than 60 points, and three more tallying 50 or more points. Dallas is deep and primed for a deep playoff run.

Dallas sits at +850 to win the Stanley Cup, +450 to represent the Western Conference, and +180 to win the Presidents Trophy.

Boston Beauties

Boston is getting no love. Yes, they only have five games remaining on the schedule which makes the Presidents Trophy unlikely as they trail the Rangers who also have one more game to play. However, the playoff odds are where it gets beautiful if you are a Boston fan. They seemingly have the division locked up at -600, but they sit at +550 to be the Eastern Conference representative and are +1300 to hoist the Stanley Cup. The third best team in the league, based on points, has the eighth best odds of winning it all. Perhaps a little recency bias in Vegas? The path won’t be easy, but this roster has the goalie tandem, veteran presence, and the star to get it done. Let the books keep doubting the Bruins, it just puts more money in your pocket… if they win.

Saturday Free Pick: Florida Panthers @ Boston Bruins- BOS – 120

A win in this one almost cements the Bruins as Atlantic Division winners. They would find themselves a point or two more ahead of Florida with a win and they control the tiebreaker as a win here would give Boston the season sweep. Against the Panthers this season, the Bruins are 3-0 with a +4-goal differential. Florida has gotten a bit cold down the stretch here and with the injuries to Aaron Ekblad and Carter Verhaeghe, things do not look good for them in this matchup.

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