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Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Weekend Series Predictions with Odds and Analysis

by Ryan Cobbett - 5/9/2025

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets series predictions Kyle Tucker

As we head into another great weekend full of some intriguing matchups on the diamond, there is one that stands above the rest. Though teams are just now approaching the first quarter mark on the season, it is always interesting to see future playoff teams clash as we get a sneak peek as to what awaits us this fall. The 22-16 Chicago Cubs will travel to New York to take on the 24-14 Mets. Both teams sit atop their respected division standings as they try and keep pace with the strong NL West trio.

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Where They Stand

The visiting Chicago Cubs are currently leading the NL Central with a three-game lead over the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers. The Cubs have a +58-run differential which is the second-best mark in the NL behind their weekend series opponents. They have played better on the road this season as they have posted a 12-7 record and have won four of their last six road contests, taking back-to-back road series against Milwaukee and Pittsburgh. However, the Cubs are on a bit of a cold spell as they have gone just 1-3 over their last four games, though their pitching has been solid. The Cubs pitching staff has a 3.95 ERA which ranks 16th in the league while their 1.31 WHIP ranks in the lower third. Colin Rea has been solid as Justin Steele’s replacement as he has posted a 2.43 ERA across five 29.2 innings, while allowing just two homeruns. Shota Imanaga leads the pitching staff with a 1.1 WAR. As for the Cubs lineup, Kyle Tucker has quickly proven to be a nice addition to the team as he has nine homeruns and 10 stolen bases while posting a .943 OPS. Pete Crow-Armstrong continues to excite Cubs fans as he has nine homeruns and 12 stolen bases, and he leads the team with a 2.3 WAR.

As for the Mets, they are trying to pull away from the Philadelphia Phillies in the division’s standings. They currently have a 1.5 game lead in the NL East and their +59-run differential is the best mark in the NL. The Mets have dominated at home this season, going 13-3, though they lost their last home series to Arizona. After a six-game road trip, the Mets will look to settle in back at home with a six game homestand. The Mets will look to their pitching to continue to dominate the opposition. They lead the league with a team ERA of 2.89 and they have allowed just 21 homeruns which is the lowest amount in the league. The Cubs will miss Kodai Senga this weekend, who has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season as he has posted a 1.16 ERA and has allowed just one homerun through 38.2 innings of work. Huascar Brazoban and Reed Garrett have emerged as elite arms out of the Mets bullpen, to start the year, as they have combined to post a 0.90 ERA across 37.2 innings. The Mets rank 10th in the league in runs scored and seventh in OPS. Pete Alonso has been their best hitter as he is hitting .328 and leads the team with nine homeruns and 34 RBIs.

Team Betting Notes:

Chicago Cubs:

  • The Cubs are 20-18 ATS this season and they have covered 11 of their 19 road games this season.
  • The Cubs have hit the over 22 times this season, which is the second most behind the Miami Marlins (24). They have an Over% of 58%.
  • The Cubs have averaged six runs per game over their last six road games, and they have a 4-2 record over that span.

New York Mets:

  • Overall, the Mets are 21-17 ATS this season, but they have covered 10 of their 16 home games this season.
  • The Mets have seen the over hit in just 37% of their games this season, one of the lowest marks in the league, and they have just five overs in 16 home games this season.
  • The Mets are 8-2 over their last 10 home games and they have allowed just 28 runs during that span.

Player Highlights:

Chicago Cubs:

  • Crow-Armstrong has the fourth best WAR in the league at 2.3 and he ranks inside the Top 10 in stolen bases and homeruns.
  • Carson Kelly has been an unsung hero for the Cubs. He has a 1.7 WAR in just 22 games and has been averaging a homerun every 8.25 at-bats.
  • Dansby Swanson has been contributing at the plate as the veteran shortstop has seven homeruns, 20 RBIs this season.

New York Mets:

  • The Mets have done this well without Brandon Nimmo contributing much. He has just 29 hits in 137 at-bats, though he does have seven homeruns.
  • Luisangel Acuna has shown off his speed this season as he has nine stolen bases though 32 games.
  • Francisco Lindor has 71 total bases through 150 at-bats this season.

Game 1 Preview – Jameson Taillon (2-1, 3.86 ERA) vs. Clay Holmes (4-1, 2.95 ERA)

My Pick: Both pitchers have dominated their next opponents’ hitters throughout their careers. Taillon has seen Lindor, Soto, and Tyrone Taylor a combined 34 times and has held the trio to just four hits. Alonso and Nimmo both have one career homerun off Taillon but are hitting near the Mendoza line in 17 plate appearances. As for the Cubs, Justin Turner has had the most success against Holmes as he has three hits in seven career at-bats, but current Cubs hitters (including Turner) are just 8/40 against him with just two homeruns. Expect this to be a low scoring game due to the lack of success against these starters. As for the result of the game, it is hard to go against the Mets at home. Holmes is dealing so far this season, and I expect the bats to find a way to get the win to start the series.

My Pick: New York Mets to Win -155, Under 7.5 +105

Game 2 – Undecided vs. Tylor Megill (3-2, 2.50 ERA)

Game 3 – Matthew Boyd (3-2, 2.75 ERA) vs. Griffin Canning (5-1, 2.50 ERA)

Series Picks: Staying consistent with my pick for the series opener, give me the Mets to win this series and potentially pick up a big sweep over the Cubs here. It is the best pitching staff against the highest producing lineup in the league right now which will certainly provide some exciting games. However, the Mets have more stardom at the plate and pairing that with their solid pitching, I am going to lean their way for a big series win and possible sweep.

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