MLB Divisional Winner Odds: NL East Betting Prediction
We are still several contests shy of MLB's 81-game halfway mark, yet the online sportsbooks are telling us that all but one of their six divisions are essentially locked up. The Cubs, Tigers, Yankees, Dodgers, and Astros are all, at the least, 3-1 betting favorites to win their respective divisions.
Growing up an Atlanta Braves fan, the NL East was always the most interesting to me. So, while it's disappointing that my team is struggling in 2025, the battle for first place still looks like it will be fun, and maybe the only division winner in baseball that's still in question come September.
While the Florida Marlins and Washington Nationals are competing at a higher level this year than the last, they’re still 13 and 14.5 games outside of first place, respectively.
Sitting atop the NL East, albeit just by a limb, are the Philadelphia Phillies. After taking two out of three over the New York Mets over the weekend to snatch the top spot, Philly lost in Houston 1-0 and 2-0, while the Mets dropped two out of three to the Braves.
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Betting Odds to Win the NL East
Washington Nationals: +40000
Miami Marlins: +40000
Atlanta Braves: +1200
Forgive me for skipping over the Nationals and Marlins, and I had to include a quick plug for the Atlanta Braves. They're currently 9.5 games out of first place. While it's hard to imagine they'll catch both the Mets and the Phillies, I don't think they'll be nearly ten games behind by season's end. I project them to get within five or maybe three games, but both Philly and New York are too well-balanced and talented to let that happen.
Even with Ronald Acuna’s remarkable return, the broken rib of ace Chris Sale was the dagger for a potential Atlanta NL East title. A play on the Braves to make the postseason isn’t a bad one, though, at nearly 3-1 betting odds.
New York Mets: +100
Less than two weeks ago, the New York Mets were (250) betting favorites to win the NL East. Yes, that was ridiculous, and I hope someone jumped on that. We, however, appear to be a little late to that foray, but are we really?
Sometimes, it's better to show up fashionably late. If you like the Mets to take the division, even money is a lot more attractive than the ballooned betting odds of 2.5-1.
Speaking of being tardy to the fiesta, right fielder Juan Soto became the highest-paid player in the history of baseball when he left the Bronx for greener pastures in Queens to sign with the Mets. You're probably well aware of his early-season struggles not only in the field but also at the plate.
The Dominican superstar has recently turned it on, though. He's now leading the majors in walks again, which is a good sign. He has eight homers this month.
He just needed to settle in a bit. That contract is a lot of pressure.
The Mets' pitching staff, from the starting rotation to Edwin Diaz closing it out, have been outstanding. The hold-up for me right now on betting New York is mostly the team that stands in their way.
It appears that after a 2-8 skid, the time is right to put some money on the Mets here, but their starters have all put in a significant amount of innings, which is a good sign and, at the same time, a red flag for potential injuries or endurance concerns down the stretch.
They also have a losing record on the road, which is another red flag when picking a champion, even at the division level.
Philadelphia Phillies: -125
Have the Philadelphia Phillies overachieved the past few years? Have they played up to their potential or, perhaps, even underachieved? I would say they choked before I would give them the underachievement badge.
With every starting pitcher in the prime of their mid-late 20s and 35-year-old Zack Wheeler leading the way. He's on pace this season for a career-low in ERA and WHIP, as well as a career-high WAR.
Bryce Harper is currently on the IL, but it's nothing serious, and the Las Vegas native should be back on the field soon. Kyle Schwarber has trimmed down, yet is still on track to hit 50 home runs.
The Phillies' pitching staff as a whole has a lower WHIP than the Mets, fewer walks given, and more strikeouts; the latter stat is good enough for first in the National League.
NL East Winner Betting Pick
Philadelphia Phillies: -125
Philly was (-150) just a couple of days ago, and this number will likely continue to fluctuate, but I don't mind where it is at the moment. Getting Harper back will rejuvenate this team. They had a hard push to get to first place. Then, they laid a couple of eggs against the Astros, but the pitching was stellar in a hitter's park.
It may appear that they're taking a breath, but they have the All-Star break for that. I would bet the Phillies now at (125) to win the NL East.
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