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MLB Season Awards with Updated Odds and Predictions

by Ryan Cobbett - 5/21/2025

MLB season awards update with odds and predictions Aaron Judge New York Yankees

As teams move towards the end of the first two months of the season, we have enough of a sample size to really start investing in some player award futures. The AL MVP race seems to have already been decided and the NL MVP race has another familiar name in front. The NL Rookie of the Year race showcases an incredible dark horse candidate with tremendous odds. With all this and more, let’s dive into each league’s MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year races.

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MVP

AL

Aaron Judge is the heavy favorite through the first two months of the season to reclaim AL MVP honors at -3000. He leads the league in AVG (.403), total bases (138), OPS (1.253), and WAR (3.9) while he is tied for the league lead with 43 RBIs and he is second in runs (45) and homeruns (16). Bobby Witt Jr. is the only other player who is relatively close, in odds, to catching Judge. He sits at +1500 as he ranks inside the Top 10 in AVG (.301), runs (28), WAR (2.7), and total bases (97). He also ranks third in the league in stolen bases (16) while also leading the league in doubles (18). Witt Jr. seems like the only one who can catch Judge, and his odds are not favorable. Barring any injury, Judge seems poised to add another MVP Trophy to his bookshelf.

My Pick: Aaron Judge -3000

NL

The NL MVP race is much closer than its AL counterparts. Shohei Ohtani is once again the favorite at -110 to win the MVP, and that is without any contributions on the mound which are sure to boost his chances. Ohtani is tied for the league lead in homeruns (17) while also picking up 12 steals. He is one of just three players this season to record double digit homeruns and steals. Trailing Ohtani is Fernando Tatis Jr. (+440) and Corbin Carroll (+700). Tatis Jr. is hitting .303 with 12 homeruns, 27 RBIs, and a 3.0 WAR while Carroll is hitting .277 with 15 homeruns, 34 RBIs, nine steals, and a 2.1 WAR. Kyle Tucker is a dark horse candidate at +1500 as he is one of the three aforementioned players with double digit homeruns and steals (11 HR, 13 SB). However, once Ohtani pitches again, even at an average level, the odds should continue to favor him.

My Pick: Shohei Ohtani -110

Cy Young

AL

Tarik Skubal is the favorite to bring home the AL Cy Young at +195. Hunter Brown (+480), Max Fried (+480), and Garrett Crochet (+600) round out the top four. Skubal leads the AL in strikeouts (79) and has five quality starts through 10 outings. Fried has had an incredible season thus far for the Yankees as he has stepped up to fill in for Gerrit Cole. Fried is 6-2 through 10 starts and has an MLB best 1.29 ERA. Brown has the best numbers though as he has eight quality starts in nine outings, while also ranking second in ERA (1.43), 10th in strikeouts (67), third in WHIP (0.83), and he is third in WAR (2.5). Fried and Brown look like true contenders to dethrone Skubal, but given Fried’s longer experience, I am taking the new Yankees southpaw to win this award.

My Pick: Max Fried +480

NL

Jesus Luzardo has the sixth best odds at +1600 despite leading the NL in WAR (2.9) while also posting a 1.95 ERA, a 10.1 K/9 ratio, and allowing just two homeruns in 60 innings of work. Despite these incredible numbers, his competition’s longevity keeps his odds juiced. His teammate Zack Wheeler is second in the NL in WAR (2.3) as he is second in the MLB in strikeouts (80) and has a 2.67 ERA through 10 starts. His +370 odds are third for the award. Paul Skenes leads the way at +240 while Yoshinobu Yamamoto trails at +310. Skenes’ overwhelming strikeout ability has yet to show itself this season as he has an 8.9 K/9 ratio, though he does have a 2.44 ERA. He just doesn’t get any help from his lineup. Wheeler at +370 is the best pick here.

My Pick: Zack Wheeler +370

Rookie of the Year

AL

Similarly to the league’s MVP race, the AL Rookie of the Year has one candidate who has stood far above all the rest. Shortstop Jacob Wilson is the favorite at -160 as he ranks second in the AL in AVG (.341) while he has also recorded five homeruns, four stolen bases, tallied 26 RBIs and has posted a 1.5 WAR. Outfielder Jasson Dominguez is second at +500 while his Yankees teammate Will Warren is behind him at +850. He has five homeruns, 21 RBIs, four stolen bases, though he is hitting just .241. It’s early, but the way Wilson has been reaching base at will makes him the choice here.

My Pick Jacob Wilson, -160

NL

Two Atlanta Braves players lead the pack for the tight NL edition race. AJ Smith-Shawver leads the way at +350 with his backstop teammate Drake Baldwin right behind him at +400. Smith-Shawver has done well this season and has emerged as a long-term candidate for the Braves rotation. He has a 2.33 ERA through seven starts and he has allowed just two homeruns in 38.2 innings. He also has a 9.3 K/9 ratio and leads his pitching staff with a 0.8 WAR. Baldwin found playing time early when Sean Murphy went down with an injury and he made the most of his time. He has five homeruns, 15 RBIs, and is hitting .357 with a 1.1 WAR. However, Baldwin is in a true platoon with Murphy and he won’t get enough plate appearances throughout the course of the season to be a true contender for this award. Dylan Crews (+1300) will emerge as the favorite soon enough. He already has seven homeruns and 11 stolen bases and that’s with a .196 AVG. Once he figures it out at the plate and lowers his strikeout numbers, which will happen with more AB’s, his numbers will skyrocket. Take the value for the best NL rookie and future MVP candidate.

My Pick: Dylan Crews +1300

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