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New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Weekend Series Predictions with Odds and Analysis

by Ryan Cobbett - 6/20/2025

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies series predictions Juan Soto

With All-Star festivities in less than a month and the Trade Deadline following close behind, teams are continuing to analyze their squads and find any weak links to improve upon before making the final playoff push in the fall. The Detroit Tigers have the best record in the MLB at 48-28, and their 10-game lead in the AL Central is the biggest gap between a division leader and second place. The NL has some surprise teams as well, as the San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals remain competitive throughout the month of June and have both reached the 40-win mark on the season. The NL East touts two elite squads, the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies, who are tied atop the division standings heading into their weekend set. With a division lead on the line, let’s dive in.

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Where They Stand

The New York Mets have squandered their division lead as they are in the midst of a six-game losing streak after getting swept in back-to-back series against the Tampa Bay Rays and the Atlanta Braves. Over the course of their losing skid, the Mets have given up an average of 6.8 runs per game while their lineup has been shutout twice and held to just a 2.3 runs per game average. Now they must travel to Philadelphia, who is the hottest team in the NL. To make matters worse, the Mets have a losing record on the road this season as they are 18-20 through their first 38 road games. The Mets lineup is not as deep as they would like, with just a quartet of consistently contributing bats. Juan Soto leads the team with a 2.9 WAR while Pete Alonso follows with a 2.8 mark and Francisco Lindor rounds out the top three with a 2.5 WAR. That trio is joined by Brandon Nimmo as the only Mets players to reach double digit homeruns at this point in the season. That quartet does also account for 41% of the team’s strikeouts this season. The pitching has leveled off as well as Tyler Megill and Griffin Canning’s strong starts have slowed as both have a 3.80 ERA or worse. David Peterson and Kodai Senga remain the two consistent arms in the rotation with Senga leading the pitching staff with a 2.8 WAR.

The Philadelphia Phillies are tied with the Boston Red Sox as the hottest teams in baseball over the last 10 games as they have posted an 8-2 record, while the Phillies have won seven of their last eight games. They will now host a struggling Mets team within the friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park where the Phillies are 24-13 this season. The Phillies rank seventh in runs scored at home, while also ranking seventh in hits and fifth in OPS in front of their home fans. However, as a whole this lineup is struggling compared to expectations. Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber are the only two high producing bats as Turner leads the team with a 2.3 WAR and Schwarber follows with a 2.1 mark. Nick Castellanos has a -0.5 WAR as he only has seven homeruns to this point in the season while Bryce Harper is hitting just .258. Schwarber’s 23 homeruns lead the team as he is the only Phillies player to reach the double-digit homerun mark this season, and he also ranks fourth in the league. As for the pitching, the starting rotation has been top notch even with Aaron Nola being out and struggling this season. Zack Wheeler is 7-2 with 11 quality starts through 14 starts this season and he has a 2.76 ERA through 88 innings. Despite those dominant numbers, Cristopher Sanchez is the leader in WAR (3.1) for the pitching staff. Ranger Suarez has also been dominant in his limited action this year as he has a 2.20 ERA through 57.1 innings.

Team Betting Notes:

New York Mets:

  • The New York Mets are 40-35 ATS this season which ranks ninth in the MLB, and they are 21-17 ATS on the road this season.
  • In regard to the game total, the Mets have seen the south side of the game total in 44 of their 75 games this season, which is the second most in the MLB.
  • The Mets have averaged 4.6 runs per game on the road this season while their pitching staff has recorded an MLB best 3.27 ERA on the road this season.

Philadelphia Phillies:

  • The Philadelphia Phillies are just 36-39 ATS this season and they have covered just 17 of their 37 home games this season.
  • In regard to the game total, the Phillies have hit the under in 40 of their 75 games this season.
  • The Phillies have averaged 5.1 runs per game at home this season while their pitching staff has recorded a 4.14 home ERA which ranks just 21st in the league.

Player Highlights:

New York Mets:

  • Lindor is hitting just .213 in the month of June, and his season average has dropped from .282 to .268. Lindor has not hit a homerun in his last 14 games.
  • Soto has been one of the few bright spots in the Mets lineup this month as he is hitting .310 this month and has hit five homeruns.
  • After keeping his ERA under 3.00 through his first 12 starts, Canning has five up 10 runs over his last 9.2 innings.

Philadelphia Phillies:

  • Wheeler has allowed just two earned runs over his last 12 innings while also recording 16 strikeouts during that span.
  • Turner continues to find his way on base as he is hitting .300 this month while also recording a .364 OBP.
  • Castellanos continues to underperform this season as he is hitting just .246 with two homeruns and six RBIs over his last 16 games.

Game 1 Preview – Blade Tidwell (0-1, 14.73 ERA) vs. Zack Wheeler (7-2, 2.76 ERA)

Game 1 Analysis: It doesn’t take a baseball genius to know the opening matchup of the series heavily favors the Phillies with their Cy Young caliber pitcher on the bump. Wheeler has been dominating the opposition in his two starts this month and will look to do so here to open the series and propel his team into first place in the NL East. Lindor and Alonso have combined for just one homerun in 73 career at-bats against Wheeler while Soto is the only hitter in the Mets lineup to really have Wheeler’s number. The Phillies have a lot of momentum heading into this weekend as they look to overtake the Mets in the division standings. Everything is pointing to the Phillies getting the win here in the opener.

My Pick: Philadelphia Phillies to Win -210, Under 8.5 -105

Game 2 – Griffin Canning (6-3, 3.80 ERA) vs. Mick Abel (2-0, 2.21 ERA)

Game 3 – David Peterson (5-2, 2.60 ERA) vs. Jesus Luzardo (6-3, 4.41 ERA)

Series Picks:

The series may not go any differently. With Cannings struggles lately, the Phillies should once again be favored to win the second game of the series. The Mets will surely end their losing streak at some point in the series, but it may not be until the Sunday set where they will finally have the favorable pitching matchup with Peterson taking on Luzardo. Expect this series to foreshadow some late September/October days ahead with these two foes clashing. The Mets have had the Phillies number this season as they previously swept Philadelphia, but these teams are trending in two totally different directions here and the Phillies should show out this weekend.

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