Docs Website

54 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

2026 Preakness Stakes Betting Trends and Expert Handicapping

by Spencer Toth - 5/13/2026

Preakness Stakes betting trends

The Kentucky Derby is now in the rearview mirror, and it is time to turn our attention to the 2026 Preakness Stakes. The second race of the Triple Crown holds plenty of intrigue, and there are some apparent betting trends we cannot ignore heading into this race. The race is now just days away, and a massive 14-horse field has been locked in for the race. There hasn’t been a full field of 14 horses since 2011, and there haven’t been more than 10 runners since 2020. 

Unfortunately, the Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo will not be racing at the event and is the third Derby winner in the last five years to forgo their chance at winning the elusive Triple Crown. There are still plenty of top contenders to comb over and betting trends to unpack. Before making a single pick at the 2026 Preakness Stakes, make sure you reference the Preakness Stakes trends listed below. 

Get expert sports picks for every league and nearly every matchup on Doc’s free picks page.

Speed Wins at Shorter Distances:
Unlike the Kentucky Derby, which is famous for late charges, the Preakness Stakes' shorter 1 3/16-mile track means that closers and mid-pack horses are at a disadvantage. Ten of the last 15 winners have been inside the top three at the halfway mark, and that trend is unlikely to change anytime soon. Additionally, 16 of the last 21 winners never trailed by more than four lengths, as front-end speed has been a focal point for recent Preakness Stakes winners. This means a horse that likes to hang at the back before making a late dash may run out of time to do so, but there are a few things working against this trend this year. 

First, the race will be held at Laurel Park in Maryland instead of the usual Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore. A hot, humid day is expected on Saturday, and this is also the first time Laurel Park has held a race longer than 1 1/8 miles. They will have to use an alternate finish line to lengthen the race by the extra 1/16 mile, and the traditionally narrow track will leave little space for the horses, especially immediately out of the gate. Getting off to a hot start has never been more crucial. Taj Mahal and Pretty Boy Miah are the two strongest pacesetters at the Preakness Stakes, and are horses to watch with this trend in mind. 

Value Beyond Favorites:
Don’t let Journalism’s win last year fool you; the Preakness Stakes is a race for the longshots, and that is even more the case with a full 14-horse field. Journalism’s win last year snapped a streak of four straight years in which a 6/1 or longer horse won the Preakness Stakes, and this trend has a real shot at getting back on track with an expanded field. Taj Mahal, Chip Honcho, Iron Honor, and Incredibolt are the four favorites with 5/1 odds or shorter, with Iron Honor’s 9/2 odds leading the way. Taking it a step further, Journalism’s win last year was the first time the outright favorite had won since 2018. Therefore, even if you prefer the favored horses, staying away from Iron Honor at 9/2 in favor of one of the other three listed horses at 4/1 or 5/1 is the way to go based on recent trends. 

The Best Derby Losers Often Bounce Back
The Kentucky Derby is the most-viewed horse race of the year, and the top Derby loser has done exceptionally well in recent races. This stat has been partially inflated by the lack of Triple Crown participants, and this year is another great example with Golden Tempo sitting out. Preakness Stakes winners have often been strong enough to make the Derby and do well, but not quite good enough to win. Six of the last 15 Preakness Stakes winners participated in the Kentucky Derby but did not win the event, which is a win rate of nearly 40%. Considering there are often only a select few horses that do both events, that is an excellent win rate. This year, only three horses are getting right back on the metaphorical horse two weeks after the Derby. Ocelli came third in the Derby after being a late addition, Incredibolt finished 6th, and Robusta finished 14th. Incredible and Ocelli are both among the favorites at 5/1 and 6/1, respectively, while Robusta is coming in with 30/1 odds

A Race for the Trainers:
There are a pair of trainers, Bob Baffert and Chad Brown, who have dominated this race. Five of the last 15 horses have been trained by one of the two, as they have been strategic with getting their horses ready for this specific race. Rather than going all out at the Kentucky Derby, Brown and Baffert have often elected to save their strongest horse for this race. Brown intentionally skipped the Derby with the odds-on favorite Iron Honor to stay fresh for the Preakness Stakes. Baffert’s top horse was forced to withdraw from the event. This leaves Brown unchallenged among previously victorious trainers. A fresh, forwardly placed colt trained by Brown deserves the respect it is getting on the odds. 

Inside Posts are Favored:

Post position isn’t everything, but it has a huge role to play in the Preakness Stakes. Every winner since 2012 has come from post positions between 1 and 7, and the wide draw could be an even bigger factor with the race moving to Laurel Park. The track is narrower than others, which may force outside horses into the back of the pack in the early stages. The middle posts have done exceptionally well, with posts 5 and 6 making up five of the last 11 Preakness Stakes winners. Chip Honcho at 5/1 odds is the only horse with odds shorter than 15/1 between posts 3 and 8, which instantly makes him a horse to watch if the early stages of this race play out like previous events. 

The True Longshots Rarely Deliver:
While the Preakness Stakes has been a race where underdogs have dominated, horses at the very bottom of the odds list have struggled. Since Master Derby won the 1975 Preakness Stakes at 23/1 odds, no horse with odds longer than 15/1 has won the Preakness Stakes. That makes it 50 straight races where a top contender with shorter odds has won the race. The full field of 14 horses means that there are currently 5 horses with odds of 20/1 or longer, making it hard to imagine them bucking this trend and winning the race. 

Get free expert sports picks on every game, or if you want our very best bets by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

Most Recent Preakness Stakes Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers