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Will There be a Triple Crown Winner in 2026?

by Joey House - 5/7/2026

Will there be a Triple Crown winner?

The Triple Crown in American horse racing remains one of the most elusive achievements in sports. Only 13 horses have swept the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes in a single season since the series was formalized in the 1930s. The last to do so was Justify in 2018, ending a thirty-seven-year drought that followed American Pharaoh's 2015 triumph. As the 2026 season unfolds, the prospects for a fourteenth Triple Crown winner have effectively vanished following the Kentucky Derby result and subsequent decisions by the top connections.

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The 2026 Kentucky Derby Sets the Stage

The 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby on May 2 at Churchill Downs delivered a stunning upset when Golden Tempo, sent off at 23-1, surged from last place to victory in one of the most dramatic finishes in recent memory. Trained by Cherie DeVaux, who became the first female trainer to win the race in its 152-year history, Golden Tempo was ridden by Jose Ortiz. His sweeping, come-from-behind rally underscored the volatility of a twenty-horse field over one and one-quarter miles.

Runner-up Renegade, the pre-race favorite at roughly 4-1 or 5-1 from post one and trained by Todd Pletcher, had been widely viewed as the most likely Triple Crown threat. Early nomination figures reflected strong interest in the series, with 367 horses made eligible in January, including thirty-one nominees from Pletcher's barn. Pre-Derby betting odds for any horse completing the Triple Crown sat at +450 for yes and -700 for no, a reminder of how improbable the sweep is even before the first leg is run.

Golden Tempo Bypasses the Preakness

Within days of the Derby, Golden Tempo's connections announced that the colt would skip the Preakness Stakes on May 16 at Laurel Park and instead target the Belmont Stakes on June 6 at Saratoga Race Course. This mirrors a growing trend among Derby winners who choose to rest between the first and third legs, prioritizing long-term performance over the grind of the five-week Triple Crown schedule.

Renegade will also bypass the Preakness to prepare for the Belmont, setting up a potential rematch between the Derby's top two finishers at Saratoga. With both the Derby winner and the strongest favorite absent from the middle jewel, no horse exiting the Kentucky Derby will enter the Preakness with a chance to complete the Triple Crown. Historically, every Triple Crown winner has captured the Derby, making a 2026 sweep impossible.

Preakness Field Lacks a Clear Path Forward

The Preakness Stakes will proceed without the Derby winner for the third time in five years. The field at Laurel Park is expected to feature fresh runners and a handful of Derby also-rans not pursuing a Triple Crown campaign. While the Preakness has produced its share of surprise winners, none of the 2026 entrants will carry the essential Derby victory required to keep the series alive.

 

Betting markets have already adjusted, with the Triple Crown "yes" proposition removed from boards following Golden Tempo's announcement. As a result, the 2026 Preakness becomes a standalone Grade 1 event rather than the pivotal second link in a potential championship run.

Belmont Stakes Offers Classic Distance but No Crown

The Belmont Stakes at Saratoga on June 6 will likely feature Golden Tempo and Renegade, both freshened and well-suited to the one-and-one-quarter-mile configuration. Saratoga's surface often rewards horses with strong finishing kicks, and both colts demonstrated stamina and late power in the Derby.

Yet even a dominant Belmont performance cannot revive a Triple Crown bid. The series demands consecutive victories across all three races within a tight five-week span, and skipping the Preakness permanently closes the door for 2026. This scenario echoes 2025, when the Derby winner also bypassed the Preakness, reinforcing a modern trend in which trainers prioritize horse welfare and targeted campaigns over the traditional pursuit of the Triple Crown.

Why the Triple Crown Remains So Difficult

Several structural and competitive factors make a Triple Crown sweep extraordinarily rare in the modern era. The three races span different distances and surfaces within a compressed schedule, testing a young horse's durability, adaptability, and recovery. Fields have grown deeper and more competitive, bolstered by international bloodlines and advanced training methods.

In 2026, early nominations reached 367 horses, yet the Derby alone demonstrated how quickly form can shift. Trainers now face heightened pressure from owners to protect valuable equine athletes rather than risk injury in back-to-back races. Golden Tempo's decision to bypass the Preakness reflects this philosophy, which has become increasingly common since Justify's 2018 sweep.

Pre-Derby estimates placed the probability of a Triple Crown near twenty percent at best. Post-Derby developments have reduced that number to zero for this season.

Looking Ahead to Future Seasons

The absence of a Triple Crown contender in 2026 does not diminish the excitement of the remaining classics. The Preakness at Laurel Park and the Belmont at Saratoga will still showcase elite three-year-olds in demanding tests of speed and stamina. Fans and bettors can still enjoy high-stakes competition and the emergence of future stars.

For the sport, the rarity of the Triple Crown continues to elevate its mystique. While 2026 will not produce a new series champion, the performances of Golden Tempo, Renegade, and their contemporaries highlight the immense challenge and enduring appeal of America's greatest racing tradition. The next opportunity for history arrives in 2027, when a new generation of three-year-olds begins the journey anew. Until then, the 2026 season stands as another reminder of just how difficult perfection across the Triple Crown's demanding legs truly is.

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