Current Top MLB Pitchers to Bet on in 2022
We are now officially two-plus weeks into the baseball regular season. With the shorted spring training, a majority of pitchers came out slow, with velocity down and missing their spots. Now that each starter has had at least 2-3 games played this season, we can look at who the standout pitchers are, and guys you can confidently bet on (moneyline) based on their early season success.
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Joe Musgrove – San Diego Padres
Betting on San Diego anytime is probably a decent idea. The Padres sit at 9-5 this season and are 3-0 when Musgrove is pitching, with a total run differential of +18 runs. Either the Padres love to hit the ball with Joe on the mound, or there’s just some good luck. Musgrove helps his own case, though, allowing 2,1 and 2 runs, a total of 5 runs in 3 games. Only 4 are ER against Musgrove. He sits with a solid 1.89 ERA and 21/1 K/BB ratio. His exit velocity was down during the first two starts of the season but is back up to last season’s average at 87.9. With a WHIP of 0.74 on the season, Joe Musgrove is cruising to W’s. His fastball spin rate is in the top 2% of the league, and he has one of the best chase rates in 2022. I don’t see many teams putting up more than 3 runs against Musgrove, especially if he continues to pitch this way. His next scheduled start is tonight, Tuesday April 26 vs Cincinnati again, where he should repeat the same performance.
Kevin Gausman – Toronto Blue Jays
Sitting 1-1 on the year, the Toronto Blue Jays have won 2/3 games Gausman has pitched. Having arguably the best hitting lineup in the American League also allows the W column to pile up for any pitcher on the Jays. Gausman recently went 8 strong vs The Boston Red Sox on April 21st, he had a shutout going when he was lifted after giving up a leadoff single in the ninth. The Red Sox wound up scoring twice, but it wasn't enough and Gausman was credited with his first win of the year. He struck out eight and walked none. He gave up seven hits, but only once did two come in the same inning and those were broken up by a double play. His splitter was the main concern this year, as early season success happened last year, but as the season went on and that splitter simmered down, he started to fall off. This year there’s a reason he has one of the best chase rates in the league. His splitter is nasty, and it has a life of its own. I think the Jays can win any game, and with Kevin Gausman on the mound posting a 22/0 K/BB rate, and his splitter working wonders, it’s a good bet. His next scheduled start is also tonight, Tuesday April 26th vs Boston again, this time at home in Toronto.
Max Scherzer – New York Mets
With a 3-0 start to the year, Mad Max still has it. Last night vs St. Louis he had 10ks and only gave up 2 hits. He didn’t get the W, as it was a 0-0 game when his night was finished, but the Mets did win 5-2. With an ERA of 1.80 and an impressive WHIP of 0.76, he’s looking sharp on his new team. The Mets are 13-5 on the season and both offensively and defensively they have it right now. His BAA (Batter Average Against) is at the lowest of his career at .131, and his K% is in the top 10% of the league. If the Mets continue to play well defensively, and Scherzer keeps his command and velocity up, he could be looking at another Cy Young year. His next scheduled start is Sunday May 1st vs Philadelphia.
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