Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

2025 Preakness Stakes Betting Trends with Expert Wagering Analysis

by Spencer Toth - 5/14/2025

Preakness Stakes betting trends

The 2025 edition of the Preakness Stakes promises to be an action-packed affair, with nine horses locked in for Saturday night. The betting trends could not be more apparent heading into the race, and examining the recent trends is the best way to come out on top on Saturday. There will be no Triple Crown winner this year, as Sovereignty will not be racing, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty of money to be made in Baltimore.

Get sports picks for every league and nearly every matchup on Doc’s free picks page.

This is a Sprint:

The Preakness Stakes is a very different race compared to the famous Kentucky Derby. Unlike the marathon race at Churchill Downs, the Preakness Stakes is a sprint to the finish. There will be far fewer late race-winning dashes up the outside, and whichever horse gets off to a hot start usually prevails. Ten of the last 15 race winners were inside the top three at the half-mile mark, as getting off to a strong start is crucial to race success. Pay attention to who usually starts strong, as this is a great indicator of where you can find value on the morning odds list.

However, while this trend will likely remain relevant with the 1 3/16 mile race length, the sloppy conditions will undoubtedly play a huge role. The racers will exert more energy with each step the wetter the conditions get, and this could make stamina more of a factor than usual at the Preakness Stakes.

Favorites are Faltering: 

The favorite at the Preakness Stakes, this year Journalism, is the favorite for a reason, but that doesn’t mean you should blindly tail him at 8-5 odds. Journalism finished second in the Kentucky Derby as the outright favorite, and Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty is not racing at the Preakness Stakes. This probably means Journalism is a great pick to make, right? Wrong.

The outright favorite has not won at the Preakness Stakes since 2018, which is a truly remarkable trend. This has proven to be one of the most unpredictable races on the calendar, and staying away from the favorite has been a surefire way to line your pocket. The next four horses after Journalism are coming in between 4-1 and 6-1, and it would not be surprising to see one of those four take home the victory. The favorite is sometimes a good play to make, but the recent trends at the Preakness Stakes say otherwise.

Skip the Kentucky Derby Competitors:

The Kentucky Derby participants used to have a leg up at the Preakness Stakes, but that appears to no longer be the case. Kentucky Derby winner, Sovereignty, will not compete at the Preakness Stakes, but there are still three horses that competed at the Derby registered for this weekend. Journalism is coming in as the odds-on favorite, while Sandman is not far behind. While it may seem intuitive that a Kentucky Derby participant will thrive at the Preakness Stakes, it has been the complete opposite in recent years. The last five Preakness Stakes winners did not participate at the Kentucky Derby, and this is the trend you cannot ignore. Whether it is the fact that the horses are fresher having not competed, or they specialize in shorter distances, this new trend has emerged in recent years and has no indications it will slow down now.

Chase that Big Payout:

Double-digit underdogs have done surprisingly well at the Preakness Stakes in recent years. The outright favorite has won six of the last 30 races, while a double-digit longshot has also won six of the last 30 Preakness Stakes. The shorter field compared to the Kentucky Derby makes it easier for a surprise winner to emerge, and this is the race you must put aside your fear and take a big swing with some long odds.

Prep Races have Little Meaning:

Prep race success is a huge indicator for who might win in the Kentucky Derby, but the opposite is the case in the Preakness Stakes. Seven of the last ten Preakness Stakes winners lost their previous race before bouncing back in the second leg of the Triple Crown. The 2024 Preakness Stakes winner, Seize the Grey, snapped a streak of five straight years where the Preakness Stakes winner was coming off a defeat. 

Get expert sports picks on every game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

Most Recent Preakness Stakes Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers