2023 Preakness Stakes Betting Trends
Following the illustrious Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, the prestigious $1.5 million Preakness Stakes at Pimlico serves as the second stage of the Triple Crown. Occurring a mere fortnight after the legendary initial jewel at Churchill Downs, this timeframe significantly alters the strategies employed by horseplayers when analyzing these two races.
While the Derby has a plethora of trends and angles to follow, because of the desire to set up a potential Triple Crown winner, there is seemingly only one for the Preakness: How often does the Kentucky Derby winner cross the finish line first at the Preakness? While this may be the most popular trend, it is by far not the only important one (In almost 150 years, 36 horses have won the first two legs of the Triple Crown and 26 more Derby winners have finished in the money at the Preakness).
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New shooters are winning more
From 1984 to 2005, only one Preakness winner, 2000's Red Bullet, had not run in the Kentucky Derby. However, since 2006, the "new shooters" (horses that enter the Preakness not having run in the Kentucky Derby) have won the second jewel of the Triple Crown five times. Of those five, only 2009's Rachel Alexandra, who had won the 2009 Kentucky Oaks the day before the Kentucky Derby, had run less than three weeks prior to the Preakness. Mage has his work cut out for him as EVERY contender for the 2023 Preakness is a new shooter, as Confidence Game was pulled out.
Tight turns vs. Inside Trips
Myths are widely held beliefs that simply aren't true. One long-held myth is that Pimlico has "tighter turns" than other racetracks, thereby making the inside position unfavorable. Pimlico's turns appear tighter in comparison to Churchill Downs because Pimlico's are not banked as much. Four of the last six winners saved considerable ground by traveling on the inside for significant portions of the race.
Inside is where it's at
A trend that works in synergy with the previous one is that six of the last eight winners have started on the inner half of the post positions. Two of those, American Pharoah (2015) and War of Will (2019), broke from the rail. Post position number one isn't the kiss of death here like it is in the Preakness.
Speed Rules
In the past 12 years, there have been four Preakness winners who led the race from start to finish, resulting in a 33% success rate for frontrunners. Rachel Alexandra (2009), Oxbow (2013), American Pharoah (2015), and Justify (2018) all achieved wire-to-wire victories. However, other horses like Shackleford (2011), I'll Have Another (2012), California Chrome (2014), Cloud Computing (2017), War of Will (2019), and even Swiss Skydiver (2020) utilized various pace-tracking strategies to different extents. Similar to most dirt races in North America, having tactical speed is advantageous in the Preakness. Unless one can emulate Exaggerator's (2016) success by capitalizing on a fast pace on a sloppy track, it's challenging to win the Preakness with deep-closing tactics.
Competition Matters
Winning the Preakness without prior success in graded stakes races is a rarity, as evidenced by the fact that 23 out of the last 26 winners had previously triumphed in such competitions. Among them, 17 had proven their mettle at the Grade 1 level before prevailing at Pimlico. The only exceptions to this trend were Shackleford (2011), Cloud Computing (2017), and Rombauer (2021), who all achieved second-place finishes in graded stakes races. Notably, Shackleford narrowly missed victory in the Grade 1 Florida Derby, while Rombauer secured a runner-up position in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes.
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