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2024 Preakness Stakes Predictions and Recommended $100 Wager

by Spencer Toth - 5/17/2024

Preakness Stakes jockeys Joel Rosario

The Preakness Stakes goes down tomorrow, and it’s time to place our bets for the big race. The second race of the Triple Crown can often be forgotten between the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes. However, even with a reduced field in this year’s event, there is still plenty of money to be made.

There are a trio of horses that are worth your hard-earned cash this weekend, with plenty of opportunities to produce a solid return. Here are your best bets for the Preakness Stakes, with a recommendation of how to spread out a $100 wager. If you are betting more or less, you can adjust as necessary, but stick to these ratios as it will maximize your chances for a profitable Saturday.

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Imagination: (6-1)

We will be skipping over outright favorite Mystik Dan, as the 5-2 payout doesn’t offer a big enough return considering his expected fatigue. After Muth pulled out of the race, Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan emerged as the new favorite. However, with Imagination equally as likely to pull out the win, he is the clear bet to make at this year’s event at 6-1 odds.

Trainer Bob Baffert was distraught when he was forced to withdraw Muth, but he is still in search of an astonishing 9th Preakness Stakes victory. With all his attention on Imagination, there is plenty of upside on this bet. Imagination has been able to cruise to victories in recent races, but it was mainly due to a lack of stiff competition. He’s finished in the top two in his last 6 appearances and will be looking for the biggest win of his young career at this weekend’s race. He has the speed out of the gate to take an early lead, and the leader at the half-mile point has gone on to win five of the last 15 Preakness Stakes. The stamina is certainly a concern, but it’s hard to argue with the upside available with one of the fastest horses on the grid. A reduced field will help Imagination maintain his lead, and he has struggled in crowded races throughout his career. Baffert will have made Imagination his sole focus over the last week, and the legendary trainer brings so many intangibles to the table. Mystik Dan’s win at the Kentucky Derby was impressive, and his inclusion at this race has kept these odds sky-high.

Percent to win: 65%

Tuscan Gold: (8-1)

Tuscan Gold offers plenty of upside and will be extremely fresh heading into this race. Tuscan Gold sat out the Kentucky Derby and will have no shortage of energy for another long race.  He is by far the least experienced horse in the field. However, not having to navigate a crowded track will play into his strengths. He has no shortage of straight-line speed, posting a 96 speed rating at the 2024 Louisiana Derby, finishing third in that race. Jockey Tylar Gaffalione rode the back of Sierra Leone at the Kentucky Derby, and these odds would be much shorter had he pulled out the win. It wasn’t for a lack of effort from Gaffalione, as he lost in a photo finish, coming in second. The lengthy course shouldn’t give Gaffalione or Tuscan Gold too many issues, as they have both shown the ability to control early speed, before making a late dash to the front of the pack. His only other race this year was an easy win at GP MSW, and it really feels as though we haven’t seen Tuscan Gold reach his full potential. The straight-line speed cannot be questioned, and this is exactly the type of Preakness Stakes longshot you want to tail. He is very ‘boom or bust’ and we won’t be taking any Place or Show bets at worse odds. Tuscan Gold either lives up to his muted hype and takes home the crown, or gasses out down the stretch and fades off the podium. With no real upside for taking Place or Show bets, we will be swinging for the fences with a big victory at this juicy price tag.

Percent to win: 30%

Uncle Heavy: (20-1)

Uncle Heavy is the joint biggest underdog at this year’s race. However, with only 8 horses in the running, all the competitors will have a fighting chance. Uncle Heavy has 3 wins in his 5 career races, including a victory at the lowly Grade 3 Withers Stakes in February of this year. He is racing from the 2nd post position, which has resulted in 12 wins, with the most recent coming back in 2017. Uncle Heavy has performed well with sloppy conditions, going a perfect 2/2 compared to 1/3 with dry conditions. His ability to persevere through less-than-ideal conditions is among the best at the Preakness Stakes, making a positive result well within his capabilities. He is the slowest horse with a straight-line speed of just 85, but has the stamina to make a late push if the conditions are horrendous. His solid post position will allow him to stay in the pack through the first turn and offers plenty of upside at this price.

We won’t be taking Uncle Heavy to pull off the outright victory, but we will look for him to Show by coming inside the top 3. Uncle Heavy has the grit, and previous results to expect a good showing from him as the track conditions worsen, and there will still be a solid payout left for him to finish in the top 3 of this narrow field.

Preakness Stakes Recommended Wagers:

$20 Imagination to Win 

$30 Imagination to Place 

$30 Tuscan Gold to Win

$20 Uncle Heavy to Show

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