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2023 Preakness Stakes Predictions + Recommended $100 Wager

by Dave Schwab - 5/18/2023

Preakness Stakes predictions Mage

Two weeks after the Kentucky Derby the next Triple Crown event is the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore. The Preakness Stakes is 1 3/16 miles on dirt and the race has a prize purse of $1.5 million. There are eight entries in the morning line odds.

Five of those horses are my legitimate contenders to win from the 8/5 favorite for the longshot that has 10/1 odds. I have listed them with their morning line and their percentage to win the race. As a bonus prediction, I have also listed the Win, Place and Show positions of the 2023 Preakness Stakes

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Mage (8/5)

As a son of Good Magic, this three-year colt won the 2023 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 6. He finished second to Forte in the Grade 1 Florida Derby as the final major prep race for the Triple Crown on April 1. Mage is trained by Gustavo Delgado and ridden by jockey Javier Castellano in gate No. 3.

Mage is a Kentucky-bred colt and he has competed at Gulf Stream Park in his early races in his career. He has races over a mile on dirt in his last three major stakes this year.

Percent to Win: 40%

First Mission (5/2)

Starting outside at the No. 8 gate for this race, First Mission won the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on April 15 as a prep race for the Preakness Stakes. Trained by Brad Cox, he finished first or second in his races as a three-year old. Ridden by jockey Luis Saez, First Mission earned a 103 Brisnet Speed Rating for his victory at Lexington.

Sired by Street Sense, he went 1 1/16 miles on dirt in his last two wins at Fair Grounds and Keeneland. First Mission is stepping up in distance and grade in the Preakness Stakes, but he has a high rating from Horse Racing Nation at 6.78.

Percent to Win: 20%

National Treasure (4/1)

Ridden by jockey John Velasquez, he is starting inside at No. 1 for the Preakness Stakes. With Bob Baffert as his trainer, National Treasure finished in the money in four of five races early in his career. The only event was a fourth-place finish in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby with Practical Move, Mandarin Hero and Skinner placing first, second and third.

As a son of Quality Road, he has gone one mile and further in his last four races at Keeneland Race Course and Santa Anita Park. National Treasure should be able to handle the extra distance in the Preakness Stakes on Saturday.

Percent to Win: 15%

Blazing Sevens (6/1)

This Kentucky-bred colt is trained by Chad Brown and has raced at Saratoga, Aqueduct, Keeneland and Gulfstream Park. Blazing Sevens finished third in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keenland on April 8 of this year. He is ridden by jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. out of the No. 7 gate in the Preakness Stakes.

Blazing Sevens is also a son of Good Magic. He has crossed a mile on dirt in his last two graded events as a three-year old. Stepping up in distance and grade in the Preakness Stakes, his strength is hanging around the leading horse in the backstretch of the race.

Percent to Win: 10%

Red Route One (10/1)

Trained by Steven Asmussen, he raced at Oaklawn Park his entire three-year career. Red Route One finished first in the Bath House Row Stakes on April 22 after placing second in two of three major graded events that this horse track in Arkansas. He has Joel Rosario has his jockey at the No. 5 gate in the Preakness Stakes.

As a live longshot for this race, Red Route One can finish in the money if the right breaks fall his way. He has cleared more than a mile on dirt in his last seven races going back to October of 2022.

Percent to Win: 15%

The Preakness Stakes Bonus Pick:

$50 on First Mission to Win

$25 on Mage to Place

$25 on Red Route One to Show

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