2025 San Diego Padres Predictions with World Series Odds and Season Win Total Picks
Last season, the San Diego Padres claimed the top wild card spot in the National League after finishing with a 93-69 record. They finished five games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers for first place in the NL West, and they actually finished two games better than their expected record of 91-71. The Padres dominated the Atlanta Braves in the first round of the playoffs, winning both games by a combined score of 9-4. Unfortunately, they would meet their big brother Los Angeles Dodgers and fall in the NLDS in five games.
Jackson Merrill led the team with a 4.4 WAR after finishing with 24 homeruns, 90 RBIs, and 16 stolen bases. Jurickson Profar finished second with a 3.7 WAR and he also hit 24 homeruns while pushing across 85 RBIs and leading the team with 94 runs. Manny Machado led the team with 29 homeruns and 105 RBIs while finishing with a 3.2 WAR. Fernando Tatis Jr. clubbed 21 homeruns despite appearing in just 102 games last season. Tatis Jr., Ha-Seong Kim, and Jake Cronenworth all recorded 2.0 WARs or better. Kim led the team with 22 stolen bases in limited action (121 games). As a team San Diego finished eighth in runs, 10th in homeruns, 14th in stolen bases, and sixth in OPS.
As for the pitching staff, they ranked 12th in ERA, sixth in WHIP, and sixth in strikeouts. The Padres had a solid 1-2 punch in the rotation last season with Dylan Cease, who finished with a 4.2 WAR, and Michael King, who finished with a 4.1 WAR. Cease led the team in innings pitched (189.1), strikeouts (224), and WHIP (1.07). King led the rotation with a 2.95 ERA while recording 201 strikeouts, 14 quality starts, and he finished with more than 170 innings. Matt Waldron was the only other Padres pitcher to reach the 100-inning mark, as he pitched 146.2 innings. Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish combined for just 181.1 innings last season and a 3.7 WAR. The bullpen was one of the best in the league, as Robert Suarez finished with 36 saves and a 2.77 ERA over 65 innings while Adrian Morejon and Jeremiah Estrada combined to pitch 124.2 innings and recorded a combined 2.5 WAR with a 2.89 ERA.
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San Diego Padres Key Additions/Losses
After the season’s end, Profar, Nick Ahmed, Tanner Scott, Kyle Higashioka, Martin Perez, Donovan Solano, and David Peralta all became free agents, while Kim declined his player option, and he also hit the free agent market.
They lost a lot of depth pieces and lost Profar and Kim, which leaves some holes in the lineup. The Padres added Jason Heyward and Connor Joe to add some depth to their big-league roster, while they also took fliers on Gavin Sheets, Niko Goodrum, Forrest Wall, Martin Maldonado, Yuli Gurriel, Jose Iglesias, and Mike Brosseau. They filled the holes in their pitching staff by adding Nick Pivetta, J.B. Wendelken, and Wes Benjamin.
San Diego Padres Prospect Outlook
The Padres have just two players ranked inside of MLB’s Top 100 Prospects Rankings. Their farm system ranks 26th in the league, as the franchise watches their aging core try and keep up with the likes of the Los Angeles Dodgers and the trio atop the NL East. Eighteen-year-old Leo De Vries is one of the best middle infield prospects in the league, as the youngster ranks 18th in the league and is the Padres highest rated prospect. He is joined by catcher Ethan Salas, who is the 33rd ranked prospect in the league and second internally. Both players will continue to develop in the minor leagues, but they will settle into the franchise’s next phase.
San Diego Padres X-Factors
Trade Deadline- The farm system is weak. The big-league roster is not on the same level as the Dodgers. The Padres are in some trouble. With limited resources, the Padres front office will need to get creative if they wish to add at the trade deadline and try and compete in the NL West and reach a wild card spot. A King/Cease/Darvish trio would still be a tough out in the playoffs, but the lineup is weaker, as their answers to losing Profar and Kim were Heyward and Joe. They need to find a bat and they need to figure out how to bring him to San Diego.
Fernando Tatis Jr.- We all know the tools Tatis possesses. However, he has struggled to stay on the field throughout his career. He has 30/30 potential, and this is the year he lives up to it with the San Diego lineup in a weakened state. Tatis and Machado are a dangerous 1-2 punch in the lineup, but the Tatis will need to live up to expectations to make the duo one of the best in the league.
San Diego Padres Expectations
San Diego is watching the Dodgers disappear into the sunset. Their offseason was underwhelming, And with trade talks surrounding Arraez and Cease, the internal direction of the franchise is up in the air. The fans want to keep up with the Dodgers, but the business side of the game is limiting the team’s ability to do so, as the Dodgers truly enter a league of their own. The Padres should still be in the mix for a wild card spot. However, with two of the wild cards likely being claimed by the Phillies, Mets, or Braves, and with the Cubs and Diamondbacks taking steps forward, the Padres may be on the outside looking in.
San Diego Padres Notable Odds:
Win Total: 85.5
World Series Champions- +2600
Pennant Winners- +1200
Division Winners- +1000
NL MVP- Fernando Tatis Jr. +800
NL MVP- Jackson Merrill +4000
NL MVP- Manny Machado +6000
NL Cy Young- Michael King +2000
NL Cy Young- Dylan Cease +2500
NL Rookie of the Year- Tirso Ornelas +2000
2025 San Diego Padres Predictions
I am staying away from all things Padres this season. They are going to take a big step back. And if they decide to move on from Cease and Arraez, as they discussed this offseason, then the Padres won’t be making the playoffs. The only reliable part of the Padres team is their bullpen. However, even then, reliever variability is a yearly concern for all teams. Tatis has MVP potential, but he hasn’t been able to put together a full season in his career. San Diego is in for a rude awakening this season. I am taking the under on the win total as they will be fighting to be .500.
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