Friday, April 29, 2016
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Probable Pitchers: Aaron Blair vs. Jon Lester
The Atlanta Braves visit Wrigley Field on Friday to play the Chicago Cubs. The probable starters are Aaron Blair for the Braves and Jon Lester for the Cubs. The opening line for this matchup has Atlanta at +250 and Chicago at -275. The over/under was set at 8. The Braves have a 13-6-2 over/under record and a 9-12-0 run line mark, meaning they cover 43% of the time. The Cubs are 14-6-0 against the run line and have a 11-8-1 over/under record. They cover the spread 70% of the time.
The Braves head into this matchup with a 4-17 record, including 3-5 on the road. Starting pitcher Aaron Blair has a 0-1 record with an earned run average of 5.06 and a WHIP of 1.50. He has 1 strikeouts over his 5.1 innings pitched and he has given up 6 hits so far this season. He has allowed 10.1 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 3.86. The bullpen this year has an earned run average of 4.79 and they have given up 75 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .250 against the bullpen while being struck out 81 times and walking 43 times this season. As a team, Atlanta has allowed 9.24 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.04 batters per nine. They are 27th in the league in team earned run average at 5.07. The Braves pitchers have collectively given up 193 base hits and 106 earned runs. They have allowed 24 home runs this season and they allow 1.1 homers per nine innings as a staff. Atlanta as a pitching staff has walked 84 batters and struck out 168. They walk 4 men per 9 innings while striking out 8 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.47 and their FIP as a unit is 4.44.
As a team, Atlanta is batting .224, good for 29th in the league while putting together a .209 average away from home. The Braves hold a .282 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .297 which is good for 27th in baseball. They rank 26th in baseball with 7.57 hits per game. Nick Markakis comes into this game hitting .273 and his on-base percentage is at .391. He has 21 hits this season along with 9 runs scored and 16 runs batted in. He's struck out 14 times and has walked 13 times. Adonis Garcia is hitting .289 and he has an on-base percentage of .365. He has totaled 22 hits so far while scoring 7 runs and he's driven in 6. He has walked 7 times and has struck out 17 times. The Braves have 159 hits, including 29 doubles and 4 home runs. They've stolen 8 bases while they've been thrown out stealing 4 times. Atlanta has walked 66 times this season and they've struck out 184 times as a unit. They've left 151 men on base and have a team OPS of .579. They score 3.29 runs per contest and have scored a total of 69 runs so far this year.
Chicago comes into this matchup with a 5-2 home record and a 15-5 overall mark. With an earned run average of 1.98, Jon Lester has a 2-1 record and a 0.84 WHIP. He has 23 strikeouts over the 27.1 innings he's pitched during which he has given up 18 hits. He has allowed 5.9 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 3.4. So far this season the bullpen has an earned run average of 3.26 and they have given up 31 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .182 against the Cubs bullpen while being struck out 56 times and walking 15 times this season. As a team, Chicago has allowed 6.33 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.76 batters per nine. They are 3rd in the league in team earned run average at 2.58. The Cubs pitchers as a team have surrendered 125 base knocks and 51 earned runs so far this season. They have given up 14 home runs this year and they give up 0.7 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Chicago as a staff has walked 45 hitters and struck out 173. They give up a walk 2.3 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.8 per 9. Their team WHIP is 0.96 while their FIP as a staff is 2.98.
As a team, they are batting .255, good for 10th in the league while putting together a .209 average at home. The Cubs hold a .434 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .356 which is good for 3rd in baseball. They rank 11th in baseball with 8.65 hits per contest. Anthony Rizzo comes into this matchup batting .205 and he has an OBP of .356. He has 15 hits this year along with 14 runs scored and 22 RBI. He's struck out 13 times and has walked on 14 occasions. Kris Bryant is hitting .280 and he has an OBP of .352. He has collected 23 hits so far while he's scored 15 runs and drove in 15. He has earned a walk 9 times and has punched out 18 times. The Cubs as a unit have 173 base hits, including 37 doubles and 26 homers. They have 12 stolen bases while they've been thrown out 5 times. Chicago as a team has walked 103 times this year and they have struck out 159 times. They've had 153 men left on base and have an OPS of .790. They score 6.15 runs per game and have totaled 123 runs so far this season.
Atlanta Braves Betting Trends
The Atlanta Braves are 13-6-2 against the over/under so far this season
The Atlanta Braves are 9-12-0 against the run line so far this season
Chicago Cubs Betting Trends
The Chicago Cubs are 11-8-1 against the over/under so far this season
The Chicago Cubs are 14-6-0 against the run line so far this season
Injuries to Watch
04/18/16 3B Gordon Beckham Hamstring 15-day DL (4/17)
04/13/16 2B Hector Olivera Legal problems out indefinitely
04/12/16 P Daniel Winkler Elbow 15-day DL (4/11)
04/11/16 RF Ender Inciarte Hamstring 15-day DL (4/9)
04/04/16 P Andrew McKiraha Elbow 60-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 P Manuel Banuelos Elbow 15-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 P Paco Rodrigue Elbow out for season
04/04/16 P Shae Simmons Elbow 15-day DL (3/25)
04/28/16 C Miguel Montero Back 15-day DL (4/25)
04/08/16 C Kyle Schwarber Knee 60-day DL (4/8); out for season
04/04/16 P Aaron Brooks Hip 15-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 3B Christian Villanueva Fibula 15-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 P Dallas Beeler Shoulder 15-day DL (3/25)
03/31/16 P Zac Rosscup Shoulder 60-day DL (2/25)
Tony's Pick: Take the Braves
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