Saturday, June 18, 2016
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Probable Pitchers: Aaron Blair vs. Steven Matz
The Atlanta Braves visit Citi Field on Saturday to play the New York Mets. The probable starters are Aaron Blair for the Braves and Steven Matz for the Mets. The opening line for this matchup has Atlanta at +210 and New York at -235. The over/under was set at 8. The Braves have a 31-29-6 over/under record and a 27-39-0 run line mark, meaning they cover 41% of the time. The Mets are 28-37-0 against the run line and have a 32-32-1 over/under record. They cover the spread 43% of the time.
The Braves head into this matchup with a 20-46 record, including 11-19 on the road. Starting pitcher Aaron Blair has a 0-4 record with an earned run average of 7.59 and a WHIP of 1.81. He has 23 strikeouts over his 40.1 innings pitched and he has given up 48 hits so far this season. He has allowed 10.7 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 5.69. The bullpen this year has an earned run average of 4.56 and they have given up 225 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .252 against the bullpen while being struck out 241 times and walking 114 times this season. As a team, Atlanta has allowed 8.67 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.9 batters per nine. They are 25th in the league in team earned run average at 4.58. The Braves pitchers have collectively given up 576 base hits and 304 earned runs. They have allowed 73 home runs this season and they allow 1.1 homers per nine innings as a staff. Atlanta as a pitching staff has walked 237 batters and struck out 525. They walk 3.6 men per 9 innings while striking out 7.9 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.36 and their FIP as a unit is 4.28.
As a team, Atlanta is batting .234, good for 28th in the league while putting together a .237 average away from home. The Braves hold a .326 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .300 which is good for 27th in baseball. They rank 26th in baseball with 7.95 hits per game. Nick Markakis comes into this game hitting .243 and his on-base percentage is at .333. He has 59 hits this season along with 24 runs scored and 36 runs batted in. He's struck out 41 times and has walked 33 times. Freddie Freeman is hitting .265 and he has an on-base percentage of .355. He has totaled 65 hits so far while scoring 33 runs and he's driven in 24. He has walked 29 times and has struck out 72 times. The Braves have 525 hits, including 98 doubles and 29 home runs. They've stolen 37 bases while they've been thrown out stealing 16 times. Atlanta has walked 195 times this season and they've struck out 517 times as a unit. They've left 479 men on base and have a team OPS of .627. They score 3.29 runs per contest and have scored a total of 217 runs so far this year.
New York comes into this matchup with a 17-13 home record and a 36-29 overall mark. With an earned run average of 2.71, Steven Matz has a 7-3 record and a 1.15 WHIP. He has 66 strikeouts over the 66.1 innings he's pitched during which he has given up 63 hits. He has allowed 8.5 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 2.61. So far this season the bullpen has an earned run average of 3.12 and they have given up 155 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .216 against the Mets bullpen while being struck out 203 times and walking 74 times this season. As a team, New York has allowed 8.31 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.84 batters per nine. They are 2nd in the league in team earned run average at 3.17. The Mets pitchers as a team have surrendered 534 base knocks and 202 earned runs so far this season. They have given up 52 home runs this year and they give up 0.8 home runs per nine innings as a staff. New York as a staff has walked 159 hitters and struck out 569. They give up a walk 2.5 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.8 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.20 while their FIP as a staff is 3.21.
As a team, they are batting .237, good for 27th in the league while putting together a .227 average at home. The Mets hold a .413 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .311 which is good for 22nd in baseball. They rank 28th in baseball with 7.89 hits per contest. Asdrubal Cabrera comes into this matchup batting .265 and he has an OBP of .327. He has 63 hits this year along with 25 runs scored and 21 RBI. He's struck out 53 times and has walked on 16 occasions. Yoenis Cespedes is hitting .284 and he has an OBP of .355. He has collected 61 hits so far while he's scored 37 runs and drove in 41. He has earned a walk 23 times and has punched out 56 times. The Mets as a unit have 513 base hits, including 101 doubles and 88 homers. They have 13 stolen bases while they've been thrown out 9 times. New York as a team has walked 212 times this year and they have struck out 583 times. They've had 451 men left on base and have an OPS of .724. They score 3.78 runs per game and have totaled 246 runs so far this season.
Atlanta Braves Betting Trends
The Atlanta Braves are 31-29-6 against the over/under so far this season
The Atlanta Braves are 27-39-0 against the run line so far this season
New York Mets Betting Trends
The New York Mets are 32-32-1 against the over/under so far this season
The New York Mets are 28-37-0 against the run line so far this season
Injuries to Watch
06/16/16 3B Adonis Garcia Ankle injured last game, "?" Friday vs. New York Mets
06/08/16 P Williams Perez Rotator Cuff 15-day DL (6/7)
06/03/16 P Mike Foltynewicz Elbow 15-day DL (6/1)
06/02/16 3B Gordon Beckham Hamstring 15-day DL (6/2)
05/27/16 2B Hector Olivera Suspension 82 game suspension, eligible to return (8/1)
04/12/16 P Daniel Winkler Elbow 15-day DL (4/11)
04/04/16 P Andrew McKiraha Elbow 60-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 P Paco Rodrigue Elbow out for season
04/04/16 P Shae Simmons Elbow 15-day DL (3/25)
New York Mets
06/17/16 3B Wilmer Flores Hand injured last game, "?" Friday vs. Atlanta Braves
06/16/16 CF Juan Lagares Thumb 15-day DL (6/15)
06/03/16 3B David Wright Neck 15-day DL (5/30)
05/24/16 1B Lucas Duda Back 15-day DL (5/21)
04/26/16 C Travis d'Arnaud Shoulder 15-day DL (4/25)
04/04/16 P Zack Wheeler Elbow 60-day DL (3/25)
Tony's Pick: Take the Braves
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