Monday, July 4, 2016
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Probable Pitchers: Tom Koehler vs. Matt Harvey
The Miami Marlins visit Citi Field on Monday to play the New York Mets. The probable starters are Tom Koehler for the Marlins and Matt Harvey for the Mets. The opening line for this matchup has Miami at +142 and New York at -152. The over/under was set at 7.5. The Marlins have a 44-36-1 over/under record and a 40-41-0 run line mark, meaning they cover 49% of the time. The Mets are 32-48-0 against the run line and have a 36-42-2 over/under record. They cover the spread 40% of the time.
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The Marlins head into this matchup with a 42-39 record, including 21-20 on the road. Starting pitcher Tom Koehler has a 6-7 record with an earned run average of 4.45 and a WHIP of 1.54. He has 73 strikeouts over his 87 innings pitched and he has given up 87 hits so far this season. He has allowed 9 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 4.17. The bullpen this year has an earned run average of 3.75 and they have given up 234 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .233 against the bullpen while being struck out 277 times and walking 121 times this season. As a team, Miami has allowed 8.49 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.7 batters per nine. They are 14th in the league in team earned run average at 4.12. The Marlins pitchers have collectively given up 681 base hits and 330 earned runs. They have allowed 77 home runs this season and they allow 1.1 homers per nine innings as a staff. Miami as a pitching staff has walked 299 batters and struck out 698. They walk 3.7 men per 9 innings while striking out 8.7 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.36 and their FIP as a unit is 4.00.
As a team, Miami is batting .271, good for 5th in the league while putting together a .286 average away from home. The Marlins hold a .408 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .330 which is good for 9th in baseball. They rank 4th in baseball with 9.44 hits per game. Marcell Ozuna comes into this game hitting .316 and his on-base percentage is at .367. He has 94 hits this season along with 50 runs scored and 47 runs batted in. He's struck out 65 times and has walked 24 times. Martin Prado is hitting .316 and he has an on-base percentage of .361. He has totaled 96 hits so far while scoring 35 runs and he's driven in 27. He has walked 22 times and has struck out 38 times. The Marlins have 765 hits, including 132 doubles and 70 home runs. They've stolen 23 bases while they've been thrown out stealing 11 times. Miami has walked 234 times this season and they've struck out 617 times as a unit. They've left 622 men on base and have a team OPS of .738. They score 4.19 runs per contest and have scored a total of 339 runs so far this year.
New York comes into this matchup with a 22-16 home record and a 43-37 overall mark. With an earned run average of 4.55, Matt Harvey has a 4-10 record and a 1.40 WHIP. He has 72 strikeouts over the 89 innings he's pitched during which he has given up 100 hits. He has allowed 10.1 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 3.59. So far this season the bullpen has an earned run average of 3.34 and they have given up 209 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .224 against the Mets bullpen while being struck out 257 times and walking 94 times this season. As a team, New York has allowed 8.5 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.64 batters per nine. They are 3rd in the league in team earned run average at 3.34. The Mets pitchers as a team have surrendered 671 base knocks and 262 earned runs so far this season. They have given up 68 home runs this year and they give up 0.9 home runs per nine innings as a staff. New York as a staff has walked 203 hitters and struck out 683. They give up a walk 2.6 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.6 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.23 while their FIP as a staff is 3.40.
As a team, they are batting .234, good for 30th in the league while putting together a .224 average at home. The Mets hold a .404 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .306 which is good for 25th in baseball. They rank 30th in baseball with 7.75 hits per contest. Asdrubal Cabrera comes into this matchup batting .262 and he has an OBP of .320. He has 77 hits this year along with 33 runs scored and 27 RBI. He's struck out 63 times and has walked on 19 occasions. Yoenis Cespedes is hitting .291 and he has an OBP of .360. He has collected 78 hits so far while he's scored 43 runs and drove in 47. He has earned a walk 28 times and has punched out 73 times. The Mets as a unit have 620 base hits, including 119 doubles and 104 homers. They have 15 stolen bases while they've been thrown out 9 times. New York as a team has walked 250 times this year and they have struck out 696 times. They've had 540 men left on base and have an OPS of .710. They score 3.67 runs per game and have totaled 294 runs so far this season.
Miami Marlins Betting Trends
The Miami Marlins are 44-36-1 against the over/under so far this season
The Miami Marlins are 40-41-0 against the run line so far this season
New York Mets Betting Trends
The New York Mets are 36-42-2 against the over/under so far this season
The New York Mets are 32-48-0 against the run line so far this season
Injuries to Watch
07/03/16 1B Justin Bour Ankle is downgraded to not expected to be in the starting lineup Sunday vs. Atlanta Braves
07/01/16 P Bryan Morris Back 60-day DL (5/25)
05/15/16 P Kendry Flores Shoulder 15-day DL (5/15)
04/29/16 2B Dee Gordon Suspension expected to miss 80 games
04/04/16 P Raudel Lazo Shoulder 15-day DL (3/25)
04/03/16 P Carter Capps Arm 60-day DL; out for season
New York Mets
07/03/16 LF Michael Conforto Rest is not expected to be in the starting lineup Sunday vs. Chicago Cubs
07/03/16 SS Asdrubal Cabrera Knee is not expected to be in the starting lineup Sunday vs. Chicago Cubs
07/03/16 RF Curtis Granderson Calf is upgraded to expected to be in the starting lineup Sunday vs. Chicago Cubs
06/22/16 P Jim Henderson Bicep 15-day DL (6/19)
06/03/16 3B David Wright Neck 15-day DL (5/30), likely out for season
05/24/16 1B Lucas Duda Back 15-day DL (5/21)
04/04/16 P Zack Wheeler Elbow 60-day DL (3/25)
Josh's Pick: Take the Marlins
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