Saturday, May 7, 2016
Great American Ball Park
For Updated Odds on This Game Click Here
Probable Pitchers: Jimmy Nelson vs. Brandon Finnegan
The Milwaukee Brewers visit Great American Ball Park on Saturday to play the Cincinnati Reds. The probable starters are Jimmy Nelson for the Brewers and Brandon Finnegan for the Reds. The opening line for this matchup has Milwaukee at +110 and Cincinnati at -120. The over/under was set at 8.5. The Brewers have a 19-7-2 over/under record and a 13-15-0 run line mark, meaning they cover 46% of the time. The Reds are 12-17-0 against the run line and have a 17-10-2 over/under record. They cover the spread 41% of the time.
The Brewers head into this matchup with a 11-17 record, including 3-8 on the road. Starting pitcher Jimmy Nelson has a 4-2 record with an earned run average of 3.05 and a WHIP of 1.17. He has 31 strikeouts over his 38.1 innings pitched and he has given up 28 hits so far this season. He has allowed 6.6 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 5.17. The bullpen this year has an earned run average of 5.03 and they have given up 115 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .290 against the bullpen while being struck out 84 times and walking 54 times this season. As a team, Milwaukee has allowed 10.86 hits per nine innings while striking out 6.88 batters per nine. They are 30th in the league in team earned run average at 5.69. The Brewers pitchers have collectively given up 292 base hits and 153 earned runs. They have allowed 44 home runs this season and they allow 1.6 homers per nine innings as a staff. Milwaukee as a pitching staff has walked 120 batters and struck out 185. They walk 4.5 men per 9 innings while striking out 6.9 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.70 and their FIP as a unit is 5.50.
As a team, Milwaukee is batting .246, good for 17th in the league while putting together a .208 average away from home. The Brewers hold a .406 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .325 which is good for 9th in baseball. They rank 23rd in baseball with 7.86 hits per game. Ryan Braun comes into this game hitting .368 and his on-base percentage is at .434. He has 35 hits this season along with 15 runs scored and 22 runs batted in. He's struck out 15 times and has walked 11 times. Domingo Santana is hitting .244 and he has an on-base percentage of .327. He has totaled 22 hits so far while scoring 11 runs and he's driven in 11. He has walked 11 times and has struck out 31 times. The Brewers have 220 hits, including 52 doubles and 30 home runs. They've stolen 17 bases while they've been thrown out stealing 6 times. Milwaukee has walked 107 times this season and they've struck out 251 times as a unit. They've left 175 men on base and have a team OPS of .732. They score 4.43 runs per contest and have scored a total of 124 runs so far this year.
Cincinnati comes into this matchup with a 10-7 home record and a 12-17 overall mark. With an earned run average of 3.97, Brandon Finnegan has a 1-1 record and a 1.29 WHIP. He has 27 strikeouts over the 34 innings he's pitched during which he has given up 26 hits. He has allowed 6.9 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 5.17. So far this season the bullpen has an earned run average of 6.53 and they have given up 109 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .269 against the Reds bullpen while being struck out 84 times and walking 56 times this season. As a team, Cincinnati has allowed 9.25 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.29 batters per nine. They are 29th in the league in team earned run average at 5.34. The Reds pitchers as a team have surrendered 260 base knocks and 150 earned runs so far this season. They have given up 50 home runs this year and they give up 1.8 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Cincinnati as a staff has walked 127 hitters and struck out 205. They give up a walk 4.5 times per 9 innings while they strike out 7.3 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.53 while their FIP as a staff is 5.72.
As a team, they are batting .235, good for 25th in the league while putting together a .236 average at home. The Reds hold a .394 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .290 which is good for 28th in baseball. They rank 26th in baseball with 7.59 hits per contest. Joey Votto comes into this matchup batting .224 and he has an OBP of .345. He has 22 hits this year along with 11 runs scored and 15 RBI. He's struck out 28 times and has walked on 17 occasions. Jay Bruce is hitting .245 and he has an OBP of .301. He has collected 23 hits so far while he's scored 12 runs and drove in 21. He has earned a walk 6 times and has punched out 25 times. The Reds as a unit have 220 base hits, including 55 doubles and 28 homers. They have 20 stolen bases while they've been thrown out 9 times. Cincinnati as a team has walked 69 times this year and they have struck out 228 times. They've had 152 men left on base and have an OPS of .684. They score 4 runs per game and have totaled 116 runs so far this season.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends
The Milwaukee Brewers are 19-7-2 against the over/under so far this season
The Milwaukee Brewers are 13-15-0 against the run line so far this season
Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends
The Cincinnati Reds are 17-10-2 against the over/under so far this season
The Cincinnati Reds are 12-17-0 against the run line so far this season
Injuries to Watch
05/05/16 RF Domingo Santana Shoulder "?" Friday vs. Cincinnati Reds
05/05/16 P Wily Peralta Personal expected to miss start Friday vs. Cincinnati Reds
04/28/16 P Matt Garza Shoulder 60-day DL (4/2)
04/28/16 2B Scooter Gennett Oblique 15-day DL (4/28)
04/04/16 P Corey Knebel Oblique 15-day DL (4/1)
04/04/16 LF Rymer Liriano Facial 60-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 P Zach Jones Shoulder 60-day DL (3/31)
04/02/16 P Yhonathan Barrios Shoulder 60-day DL (3/25)
04/01/16 P Sean Nolin Elbow 60-day DL (3/25)
03/30/16 P Will Smith Knee 15-day DL (3/25)
05/06/16 P Jon Moscot Shoulder "?" for next scheduled start
05/03/16 P Brandon Finnegan Hamstring "?" for next scheduled start
05/02/16 C Devin Mesoraco Shoulder 15-day DL (5/1)
05/01/16 P Raisel Iglesias Shoulder 15-day DL (4/26)
04/10/16 CF Yorman Rodriguez Hamstring 15-day DL (3/27)
04/04/16 P Anthony DeSclafa Oblique 15-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 P Homer Bailey Elbow 15-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 C Kyle Skipworth Ankle 60-day DL (3/31)
04/03/16 P John Lamb Back 15-day DL (3/25)
03/31/16 P Michael Lorenzen Elbow 60-day DL (3/25)
Tony's Pick: Take the Reds
Get $60 worth of FREE premium member picks. No Obligation. No Salesman. No Credit Card. Fast Sign up with Instant Access Click Here
Read more articles by Tony Sink
Get all of Today's Free MLB Picks
Get all of Today's Expert MLB Picks