Thursday, May 12, 2016
For Updated Odds on This Game Click Here
Probable Pitchers: Vincent Velasquez vs. Aaron Blair
The Philadelphia Phillies visit Turner Field on Thursday to play the Atlanta Braves. The probable starters are Vincent Velasquez for the Phillies and Aaron Blair for the Braves. The opening line for this matchup has Philadelphia at -110 and Atlanta at +100. The over/under was set at 7. The Phillies have a 14-17-2 over/under record and a 19-14-0 run line mark, meaning they cover 58% of the time. The Braves are 12-19-0 against the run line and have a 16-11-4 over/under record. They cover the spread 39% of the time.
The Phillies head into this matchup with a 19-14 record, including 11-9 on the road. Starting pitcher Vincent Velasquez has a 4-1 record with an earned run average of 2.17 and a WHIP of 0.96. He has 44 strikeouts over his 37.1 innings pitched and he has given up 25 hits so far this season. He has allowed 6 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 2.75. The bullpen this year has an earned run average of 4.31 and they have given up 98 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .244 against the bullpen while being struck out 107 times and walking 43 times this season. As a team, Philadelphia has allowed 7.93 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.28 batters per nine. They are 12th in the league in team earned run average at 3.89. The Phillies pitchers have collectively given up 259 base hits and 127 earned runs. They have allowed 42 home runs this season and they allow 1.3 homers per nine innings as a staff. Philadelphia as a pitching staff has walked 92 batters and struck out 303. They walk 2.8 men per 9 innings while striking out 9.3 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.19 and their FIP as a unit is 3.87.
As a team, Philadelphia is batting .228, good for 28th in the league while putting together a .240 average away from home. The Phillies hold a .361 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .284 which is good for 30th in baseball. They rank 29th in baseball with 7.42 hits per game. Odubel Herrera comes into this game hitting .319 and his on-base percentage is at .437. He has 37 hits this season along with 20 runs scored and 11 runs batted in. He's struck out 24 times and has walked 25 times. Maikel Franco is hitting .256 and he has an on-base percentage of .300. He has totaled 31 hits so far while scoring 11 runs and he's driven in 18. He has walked 7 times and has struck out 24 times. The Phillies have 245 hits, including 49 doubles and 26 home runs. They've stolen 12 bases while they've been thrown out stealing 12 times. Philadelphia has walked 81 times this season and they've struck out 259 times as a unit. They've left 189 men on base and have a team OPS of .645. They score 3.24 runs per contest and have scored a total of 107 runs so far this year.
Atlanta comes into this matchup with a 1-16 home record and a 7-24 overall mark. With an earned run average of 3.31, Aaron Blair has a 0-2 record and a 1.35 WHIP. He has 5 strikeouts over the 16.1 innings he's pitched during which he has given up 13 hits. He has allowed 7.2 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 4.14. So far this season the bullpen has an earned run average of 4.68 and they have given up 104 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .249 against the Braves bullpen while being struck out 112 times and walking 60 times this season. As a team, Atlanta has allowed 8.77 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.87 batters per nine. They are 25th in the league in team earned run average at 4.66. The Braves pitchers as a team have surrendered 271 base knocks and 144 earned runs so far this season. They have given up 36 home runs this year and they give up 1.2 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Atlanta as a staff has walked 123 hitters and struck out 243. They give up a walk 4 times per 9 innings while they strike out 7.9 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.42 while their FIP as a staff is 4.47.
As a team, they are batting .225, good for 29th in the league while putting together a .233 average at home. The Braves hold a .289 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .293 which is good for 28th in baseball. They rank 28th in baseball with 7.55 hits per contest. Nick Markakis comes into this matchup batting .286 and he has an OBP of .391. He has 32 hits this year along with 12 runs scored and 20 RBI. He's struck out 19 times and has walked on 18 occasions. Freddie Freeman is hitting .273 and he has an OBP of .380. He has collected 30 hits so far while he's scored 12 runs and drove in 9. He has earned a walk 16 times and has punched out 31 times. The Braves as a unit have 234 base hits, including 43 doubles and 8 homers. They have 14 stolen bases while they've been thrown out 8 times. Atlanta as a team has walked 91 times this year and they have struck out 254 times. They've had 217 men left on base and have an OPS of .581. They score 2.97 runs per game and have totaled 92 runs so far this season.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends
The Philadelphia Phillies are 14-17-2 against the over/under so far this season
The Philadelphia Phillies are 19-14-0 against the run line so far this season
Atlanta Braves Betting Trends
The Atlanta Braves are 16-11-4 against the over/under so far this season
The Atlanta Braves are 12-19-0 against the run line so far this season
Injuries to Watch
05/01/16 P Dalier Hinojosa Hand 15-day DL (4/29)
04/24/16 P Charlie Morton Hamstring 15-day DL (4/24); out for season
04/14/16 P Daniel Stumpf Suspension 80-game suspension
04/04/16 P Michael Mariot Ankle 15-day DL (3/25)
04/03/16 P Mario Hollands Elbow 60-day DL (4/2)
03/31/16 LF Aaron Altherr Wrist 60-day DL (4/2)
03/31/16 LF Cody Asche Ribs 15-day DL (3/25)
03/31/16 P Matt Harrison Back 60-day DL (4/2)
05/11/16 P Jim Johnson Groin 15-day DL (5/9)
04/13/16 2B Hector Olivera Legal problems out indefinitely
04/12/16 P Daniel Winkler Elbow 15-day DL (4/11)
04/04/16 P Andrew McKiraha Elbow 60-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 P Manuel Banuelos Elbow 15-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 P Paco Rodrigue Elbow out for season
04/04/16 P Shae Simmons Elbow 15-day DL (3/25)
Josh's Pick: Take the Braves
Get $60 worth of FREE premium member picks. No Obligation. No Salesman. No Credit Card. Fast Sign up with Instant Access Click Here
Read more articles by Josh Schonwald
Get all of Today's MLB Picks
Get all of Today's Guaranteed Expert MLB Picks