Sunday, April 10, 2016
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Probable Pitchers: Jeremy Hellickson vs. Matt Harvey
The Philadelphia Phillies visit Citi Field on Sunday to play the New York Mets. The probable starters are Jeremy Hellickson for the Phillies and Matt Harvey for the Mets. The opening line for this matchup has Philadelphia at +237 and New York at -260. The over/under was set at 6.5. The Phillies had a 86-64-12 over/under record last season and a 85-77-0 run line mark, meaning they covered 53% of the time. The Mets were 91-84-0 against the run line and had a 92-77-7 over/under record. They covered the spread 52% of the time.
The Phillies head into this matchup coming off a 63 - 99 season, including 26-55 on the road. Starting pitcher Jeremy Hellickson had a 9 - 12 record with an earned run average of 4.62 and a WHIP of 1.33. He had 121 strikeouts over his 146 innings pitched and he also gave up 151 hits over that time period. He allowed 9.3 hits per 9 innings and he had a FIP of 4.44. The bullpen had an earned run average of 3.81 and they gave up 555 base hits on the year. Teams hit .258 against the bullpen while being struck out 518 times and walking 227 times last season. As a team, Philadelphia allowed 9.98 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.22 batters per nine. They were 29th in the league in team earned run average at 4.69. The Phillies pitchers collectively gave up 1,592 base hits and 749 earned runs last year. They allowed 191 home runs last season and they allowed 1.2 homers per nine innings as a staff. Philadelphia as a pitching staff walked 488 batters and struck out 1,153. They walked 3.1 men per 9 innings while striking out 7.2 per 9. They had a team WHIP of 1.45 and their FIP as a unit was 4.40.
As a team, Philadelphia batted .249, good for 24th in the league while putting together a .249 average away from home. The Phillies held a .382 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .303 which was good for 29th in baseball. They ranked 20th in baseball with 8.48 hits per game. Ryan Howard hit .229 last season and his on-base percentage was at .277. He had 107 hits last season along with 53 runs scored and 77 runs batted in. He struck out 138 times and walked 27 times. Maikel Franco hit .280 and he had an on-base percentage of .343 last year. He totaled 85 hits while scoring 45 runs and he drove in 50. He walked 26 times and struck out 52 times. The Phillies had 1,374 hits, including 272 doubles, 37 triples, and 130 home runs. They stole 88 bases while they were thrown out stealing 32 times. Philadelphia walked 387 times last season and they struck out 1,274 times as a unit. They left 1,066 men on base and had a team OPS of .684. They scored 3.86 runs per contest and scored a total of 626 runs last season.
New York comes into this matchup after having a 49-32 home record and a 90 - 72 overall mark last year. With an earned run average last season of 2.71, Matt Harvey will come into this game after holding a 13 - 8 record and a 1.02 WHIP. He had 188 strikeouts over the 189.1 innings he pitched during which he gave up 156 hits. He allowed 7.4 hits per nine innings and his FIP stood at 3.05. The bullpen had an earned run average of 3.48 and they gave up 398 base hits last year. Teams hit .230 against the Mets bullpen while being struck out 446 times and walking 170 times last season. As a team, New York allowed 8.19 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.27 batters per nine. They were 4th in the league in team earned run average at 3.44. The Mets pitchers as a team surrendered 1,341 base knocks and 557 earned runs last season. They gave up 152 home runs last year and they gave up 0.9 home runs per nine innings as a staff. New York as a staff walked 383 hitters and struck out 1,337. They gave up a walk 2.4 times per 9 innings while they struck out 8.2 per 9. Their team WHIP was 1.18 while their FIP as a staff was 3.53.
As a team, they hit .243, good for 28th in the league while putting together a .234 average at home. The Mets held a .400 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .310 which was good for 22nd in baseball. They ranked 27th in baseball with 8.29 hits per contest. Curtis Granderson batted .259 last season and he had an OBP of .364. He had 150 hits last year along with 98 runs scored and 70 RBI. He struck out 151 times and walked on 91 occasions. Yoenis Cespedes hit .291 and he had an OBP of .328. He collected 184 hits last year while he scored 101 runs and drove in 105. He earned a walk 33 times and punched out 141 times. The Mets as a unit had 1,351 base hits last year, including 295 doubles, 17 triples, and 177 homers. They had 51 stolen bases while they were thrown out 25 times. New York as a team walked 488 times last year and they struck out 1,290 times. They had 1,098 men left on base and had an OPS of .712. They scored 4.22 runs per game and totaled 683 runs last season.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends
The Philadelphia Phillies were 86-64-12 against the over/under last season
The Philadelphia Phillies were 85-77-0 against the run line last season
New York Mets Betting Trends
The New York Mets were 92-77-7 against the over/under last season
The New York Mets were 91-84-0 against the run line last season
Injuries to Watch
04/08/16 3B Maikel Franco Elbow "?" Saturday vs. New York Mets
04/04/16 P Michael Mariot Ankle Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
04/03/16 P Mario Hollands Elbow Injury is on the 60 day disabled list (4/2)
03/31/16 LF Aaron Altherr Wrist Injury is on the 60 day disabled list (4/2)
03/31/16 LF Cody Asche Ribs Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
03/31/16 P Matt Harrison Back Injury is on the 60 day disabled list (4/2)
New York Mets
04/08/16 P Jacob deGrom Oblique left last game, "?" next start
04/04/16 P Joshua Edgin Elbow Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
04/04/16 P Zack Wheeler Elbow Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
Guy's Pick: Take the Mets
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