Sunday, April 10, 2016
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Probable Pitchers: Jake Odorizzi vs. Vance Worley
The Tampa Bay Rays visit Oriole Park on Sunday to play the Baltimore Orioles. The probable starters are Jake Odorizzi for the Rays and Vance Worley for the Orioles. The opening line for this matchup has Tampa Bay at -120 and Baltimore at +110. The over/under was set at 8.5. The Rays had a 73-76-13 over/under record last season and a 90-72-0 run line mark, meaning they covered 56% of the time. The Orioles were 81-81-0 against the run line and had a 73-80-9 over/under record. They covered the spread 50% of the time.
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The Rays head into this matchup coming off a 80 - 82 season, including 38-40 on the road. Starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi had a 9 - 9 record with an earned run average of 3.35 and a WHIP of 1.15. He had 150 strikeouts over his 169.1 innings pitched and he also gave up 149 hits over that time period. He allowed 7.9 hits per 9 innings and he had a FIP of 3.61. The bullpen had an earned run average of 3.93 and they gave up 484 base hits on the year. Teams hit .236 against the bullpen while being struck out 504 times and walking 196 times last season. As a team, Tampa Bay allowed 8.14 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.39 batters per nine. They were 10th in the league in team earned run average at 3.74. The Rays pitchers collectively gave up 1,314 base hits and 604 earned runs last year. They allowed 175 home runs last season and they allowed 1.1 homers per nine innings as a staff. Tampa Bay as a pitching staff walked 477 batters and struck out 1,355. They walked 3 men per 9 innings while striking out 8.4 per 9. They had a team WHIP of 1.23 and their FIP as a unit was 3.91.
As a team, Tampa Bay batted .252, good for 12th in the league while putting together a .256 average away from home. The Rays held a .406 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .314 which was good for 18th in baseball. They ranked 14th in baseball with 8.54 hits per game. Evan Longoria hit .270 last season and his on-base percentage was at .328. He had 163 hits last season along with 74 runs scored and 73 runs batted in. He struck out 132 times and walked 51 times. Logan Forsythe hit .281 and he had an on-base percentage of .359 last year. He totaled 152 hits while scoring 69 runs and he drove in 68. He walked 55 times and struck out 111 times. The Rays had 1,383 hits, including 278 doubles, 32 triples, and 167 home runs. They stole 87 bases while they were thrown out stealing 45 times. Tampa Bay walked 436 times last season and they struck out 1,310 times as a unit. They left 1,075 men on base and had a team OPS of .720. They scored 3.98 runs per contest and scored a total of 644 runs last season.
Baltimore comes into this matchup after having a 47-31 home record and a 81 - 81 overall mark last year. With an earned run average last season of 4.02, Vance Worley will come into this game after holding a 4 - 6 record and a 1.42 WHIP. He had 49 strikeouts over the 71.2 innings he pitched during which he gave up 81 hits. He allowed 10.2 hits per nine innings and his FIP stood at 3.82. The bullpen had an earned run average of 3.21 and they gave up 463 base hits last year. Teams hit .235 against the Orioles bullpen while being struck out 518 times and walking 192 times last season. As a team, Baltimore allowed 8.82 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.73 batters per nine. They were 18th in the league in team earned run average at 4.05. The Orioles pitchers as a team surrendered 1,406 base knocks and 646 earned runs last season. They gave up 174 home runs last year and they gave up 1.1 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Baltimore as a staff walked 483 hitters and struck out 1,233. They gave up a walk 3 times per 9 innings while they struck out 7.7 per 9. Their team WHIP was 1.32 while their FIP as a staff was 4.11.
As a team, they hit .250, good for 19th in the league while putting together a .269 average at home. The Orioles held a .421 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .307 which was good for 24th in baseball. They ranked 21st in baseball with 8.46 hits per contest. Chris Davis batted .262 last season and he had an OBP of .361. He had 150 hits last year along with 100 runs scored and 117 RBI. He struck out 208 times and walked on 84 occasions. Manny Machado hit .286 and he had an OBP of .359. He collected 181 hits last year while he scored 102 runs and drove in 86. He earned a walk 70 times and punched out 111 times. The Orioles as a unit had 1,370 base hits last year, including 246 doubles, 20 triples, and 217 homers. They had 44 stolen bases while they were thrown out 25 times. Baltimore as a team walked 418 times last year and they struck out 1,331 times. They had 990 men left on base and had an OPS of .728. They scored 4.4 runs per game and totaled 713 runs last season.
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Trends
The Tampa Bay Rays were 73-76-13 against the over/under last season
The Tampa Bay Rays were 90-72-0 against the run line last season
Baltimore Orioles Betting Trends
The Baltimore Orioles were 73-80-9 against the over/under last season
The Baltimore Orioles were 81-81-0 against the run line last season
Injuries to Watch
Tampa Bay Rays
04/04/16 P Brad Boxberge Abdominal Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
04/01/16 P Alex Cobb Elbow Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
04/09/16 SS J.J. Hardy Calf is upgraded to probable Saturday vs. Tampa Bay Rays
04/08/16 CF Adam Jones Ribs "?" Saturday vs. Tampa Bay Rays
04/01/16 P Brian Matusz Back Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
03/31/16 3B Jimmy Paredes Wrist Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
03/30/16 P Kevin Gausman Shoulder Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
Tony's Pick: Take the Orioles
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