Astros at Red Sox ALCS Game 1 Free MLB Picks and Predictions

Saturday, October 13, 2018

Fenway Park

Get todays MLB odds and lines on this game.

Probable Pitchers: Justin Verlander vs. Chris Sale

The Houston Astros head to Fenway Park on Saturday to take on the Boston Red Sox in Game 1 of the ALCS. This should be a tightly contested series as both teams have had fantastic seasons. The expected starting pitchers are Justin Verlander for the Astros and Chris Sale for the Red Sox.

The odds for this matchup have Houston at -109 and Boston at -110. The Astros have a 71-85-9 over/under mark and a 86-79-0 run line record. The Red Sox are 94-72-0 against the run line and have a 79-78-9 over/under record.

Valuable Houston Astros Betting Trends

The Houston Astros are 71-85-9 against the over/under

The Houston Astros are 86-79-0 against the run line

Important Boston Red Sox Betting Trends

The Boston Red Sox are 79-78-9 against the over/under

The Boston Red Sox are 94-72-0 against the run line

Key Houston Astros Injuries

05/21/18 LF Derek Fisher Intestinal 10-day DL (05/20)
03/30/18 P Brady Rodgers Elbow 10-day DL (03/26)
03/26/18 P Jandel Gustave Elbow 60-day DL (03/26)

Key Boston Red Sox Injuries

10/09/18 1B Mitch Moreland Hamstring is questionable Thursday vs New York Yankees
10/07/18 P Steven Wright Knee is out indefinitely
09/27/18 P Tyler Thornburg Shoulder is out for season
06/02/18 2B Dustin Pedroia Knee 60-day DL (05/30); is out for season
05/15/18 P Carson Smith Shoulder 60-day DL (05/15)
03/30/18 P Austin Maddox Shoulder 60-day DL (03/29)
03/26/18 SS Marco Hernandez Shoulder 60-day DL (03/29)

Useful Pitching Statistics

Starting pitcher Justin Verlander has a 16-9 record with an earned run average of 2.52 and a WHIP of 0.90 this year. He has 290 strikeouts over his 214 innings pitched and he's given up 156 hits. He allows 6.6 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 2.78. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.03 and they have given up 393 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .212 against the bullpen and they've struck out 586 hitters and walked 137 batters. As a team, Houston allows 7.2 hits per nine innings while striking out 10.4 batters per nine innings. They are 1st in the league in team earned run average at 3.11. The Astros pitchers collectively have given up 1,164 base hits and 503 earned runs. They have allowed 152 home runs this season, ranking them 29th in the league. Houston as a pitching staff has walked 435 batters and struck out 1,687. They have walked 2.7 men per 9 innings while striking out 10.4 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.10 and their FIP as a unit is 3.24.

Hitting Statistics

As a team Houston is hitting .255, good for 7th in the league. The Astros hold a .425 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .329, which is good for 8th in baseball. They rank 12th in MLB with 8.6 hits per game. Carlos Correa is hitting .239 with an on-base percentage of .323. He has 96 hits this season in 402 at bats with 65 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .405 and an OPS+ of 102. Jose Altuve is hitting .315 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .384. He has totaled 168 hits and he has driven in 61 men in 534 at bats. His OPS+ is 132 while his slugging percentage is at .449. The Astros have 1,389 hits, including 278 doubles and 205 home runs. Houston has walked 565 times so far this season and they have struck out 1,197 times as a unit. They have left 1,052 men on base and have a team OPS of .754. They score 4.92 runs per contest and have scored a total of 797 runs this year.

Useful Pitching Statistics

With an earned run average of 2.11, Chris Sale has a 12-4 record and a 0.86 WHIP this season. He has 237 strikeouts over the 158 innings he's pitched. He also has given up 102 hits. He allows 5.8 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 1.98. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.72 and they have given up 515 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .232 against the Red Sox bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 628 batters and walked 245 opposing hitters. As a team, Boston allows 8.1 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.6 batters per nine innings. They are 8th in the league in team earned run average at 3.76. The Red Sox pitchers as a team have surrendered 1,306 base knocks and 609 earned runs this season. They have given up 176 home runs this year, which ranks 20th in Major League Baseball. Boston as a staff has walked 512 hitters and struck out 1,558 batters. They give up a walk 3.2 times per 9 innings while they strike out 9.6 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.25 while their FIP as a staff is 3.82.

Hitting Statistics

As a team, they are batting .268, good for 1st in the league. The Red Sox hold a .453 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .339, which is good for 1st in baseball. They rank 1st in MLB with 9.3 hits per contest. J.D. Martinez comes into this matchup batting .330 with an OBP of .402. He has 188 hits this year along with 130 RBI in 569 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .629 with an OPS+ of 173. Mookie Betts is hitting .346 this season and he has an OBP of .438. He has collected 180 hits in 520 at bats while driving in 80 runs. He has an OPS+ of 186 and a slugging percentage of .640. The Red Sox as a unit have 1,509 base hits, including 355 doubles and 208 homers. Boston has walked 569 times this year and they have struck out on 1,253 occasions. They have had 1,124 men left on base and have an OPS of .792. They have scored 5.41 runs per game and totaled 876 runs this season.

Who will win tonight's Astros/Red Sox MLB game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Red Sox -110

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