Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins Expert MLB Picks 6/18/2019

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Target Field

Get todays MLB odds and lines on this game.

Probable Pitchers: David Price vs. Michael Pineda

J.D. Martinez and the Boston Red Sox (39-34, 3rd in AL East) head to Target Field on Tuesday where they'll take on the Minnesota Twins (47-23, 1st in AL Central). The Twins open this contest at -103 while the Red Sox are coming in at -107. The O/U has been set at 10.

The Red Sox have been less than ideal for oddsmakers, having gone 39-34-0 SU. Minnesota covers 67.1% of the time, going 47-23-0 straight up. The Red Sox have been bad for Las Vegas oddsmakers as a favorite, going 35-27-0 SU. Minnesota covers 61.5% of the time as an underdog, having gone 16-10-0 straight up.

Valuable Boston Red Sox Betting Trends

The Red Sox have been a great Over bet for over/under MLB bettors, having gone 40-30-3.

The Red Sox cover 56.4% of the time away from home, having gone 22-17-0 straight up.

Important Minnesota Twins Betting Trends

Minnesota covers 67.7% of the time at Target Field, going 23-11-0 SU.

The Twins have been a great Over bet for over/under MLB bettors, having gone 38-28-4.

Related: Launch Angle Stat: Advice for MLB Handicapping and Betting

Key Boston Red Sox Injuries

6/16/2019 Andrew Benintendi LF Quadriceps Probable for Jun 17
6/15/2019 Nathan Eovaldi SP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Jul 7
6/15/2019 Blake Swihart C Oblique Expected to be out until at least Jun 28
6/15/2019 Tzu-Wei Lin 2B Knee Expected to be out until at least Jun 17
6/14/2019 Heath Hembree RP Forearm Expected to be out until at least Jun 21
6/13/2019 Steve Pearce 1B Back Expected to be out until at least Jun 17
6/9/2019 Tyler Thornburg RP Hip Expected to be out until at least Jun 22
6/8/2019 Mitch Moreland 1B Quadriceps Expected to be out until at least Jul 12
6/8/2019 Hector Velazquez RP Back Expected to be out until at least Jun 17
5/28/2019 Dustin Pedroia 2B Knee Expected to be out until at least Sep 1
11/1/2019 Austin Maddox RP Shoulder Out for the season

Key Minnesota Twins Injuries

6/16/2019 Byron Buxton CF Wrist Probable for Jun 17
6/1/2019 Adalberto Mejia RP Calf Expected to be out until at least Jun 20

Useful Pitching Statistics

The Red Sox have a 39-34 overall record this season. Starting pitcher David Price has a 4-2 record with an earned run average of 3.52 and a WHIP of 1.13 this season. He has 71 strikeouts over his 61.1 innings pitched and he's given up 54 hits. He's allowed 7.9 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 3.18. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.00 and they have given up 242 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .227 against the bullpen and they've struck out 326 hitters and walked 120 batters. As a team, Boston allows 8.3 hits per nine innings while striking out 10 batters per nine innings. They are 13th in the league in team earned run average at 4.34. The Red Sox pitchers collectively have given up 605 base hits and 316 earned runs. They have allowed 90 home runs this season, ranking them 19th in the league. Boston as a pitching staff has walked 236 batters and struck out 730. They have walked 3.2 men per 9 innings while striking out 10 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.28 and their FIP as a unit is 3.99.

Related: Get MLB predictions on all of today's games

Hitting Statistics

As a team Boston is hitting .262, good for 6th in the league. The Red Sox hold a .450 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .340, which is good for 4th in baseball. They rank 6th in MLB with 9.1 hits per game. J.D. Martinez is hitting .298 with an on-base percentage of .376. He has 73 hits this season in 245 at bats with 39 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .559 and an OPS+ of 142. Mookie Betts is hitting .266 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .387. He has totaled 73 hits and he has driven in 33 men in 274 at bats. His OPS+ is 122 while his slugging percentage is at .456. The Red Sox have 667 hits, including 138 doubles and 107 home runs. Boston has walked 290 times so far this season and they have struck out 610 times as a unit. They have left 529 men on base and have a team OPS of .790. They score 5.4 runs per contest and have scored a total of 394 runs this year.

Useful Pitching Statistics

Minnesota has a 47-23 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 5.04, Michael Pineda has a 4-3 record and a 1.21 WHIP. He has 57 strikeouts over the 69.2 innings he's pitched. He also has given up 71 hits. He's allowing 9.2 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 4.85. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.69 and they have given up 220 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .256 against the Twins bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 230 batters and walked 94 opposing hitters. As a team, Minnesota allows 8.5 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.8 batters per nine innings. They are 7th in the league in team earned run average at 3.95. The Twins pitchers as a team have surrendered 583 base knocks and 272 earned runs this season. They have given up 85 home runs this year, which ranks 24th in Major League Baseball. Minnesota as a staff has walked 198 hitters and struck out 607 batters. They give up a walk 2.9 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.8 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.26 while their FIP as a staff is 4.08.

Hitting Statistics

As a team, they are batting .275, good for 1st in the league. The Twins hold a .515 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .342, which is good for 3rd in baseball. They rank 2nd in MLB with 9.5 hits per contest. Eddie Rosario comes into this matchup batting .262 with an OBP of .297. He has 70 hits this year along with 52 RBI in 267 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .517 with an OPS+ of 113. Jorge Polanco is hitting .332 this season and he has an OBP of .395. He has collected 90 hits in 271 at bats while driving in 37 runs. He has an OPS+ of 153 and a slugging percentage of .557. The Twins as a unit have 666 base hits, including 152 doubles and 137 homers. Minnesota has walked 221 times this year and they have struck out on 542 occasions. They have had 469 men left on base and have an OPS of .857. They have scored 5.96 runs per game and totaled 417 runs this season.

Who will win tonight's Red Sox/Twins MLB game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Twins -103

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