Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Game 3 Picks & Predictions 10/7/2019

Monday, October 7, 2019

Tropicana Field

Get todays MLB odds and lines on this game.

Probable Pitchers: Zack Greinke vs. Charlie Morton

Tommy Pham and the Tampa Bay Rays play the Houston Astros at Tropicana Field on Monday in Game 3 of the ALDS. Houston leads the series 2-0 after a dominating 3-1 victory behind Gerrit Cole. Cole fanned 15 Rays in 7.2 innings of work. Alex Bregman finished 2-4 at the plate including a 4th inning home run off Blake Snell. The line on this matchup has the Astros coming in at -142 and the Rays are at +132. The over/under is set at 7.5.

The Astros have been an excellent choice for baseball bettors, having gone 109-55-0 SU. The Rays are covering 58.8% of the time, going 97-68-0 straight up.

Valuable Houston Astros Betting Trends

The Astros have been a less than ideal Under play for O/U bettors, having gone 73-85-6.

Houston is covering 57.0% of the time away from home, having gone 45-34-0 straight up.

Important Tampa Bay Rays Betting Trends

Tampa Bay is covering 59.3% of the time at Tropicana Field, going 48-33-0 SU.

The Rays have been a less than ideal Under play for O/U bettors, having gone 79-77-9.

Related: Gambling 101 - MLB Betting Tips - Tony George of Doc's Sports

Key Houston Astros Injuries

9/27/2019 Aaron Sanchez SP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Jul 1, 2020
9/17/2019 Collin McHugh RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2020
6/9/2019 Lance McCullers SP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2020

Key Tampa Bay Rays Injuries

10/5/2019 Eric Sogard 2B Foot Expected to be out until at least Oct 7
9/11/2019 Hoby Milner RP Neck Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2020
9/5/2019 Jose Alvarado RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Nov 1
4/2/2019 Jose Mujica SP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Mar 1, 2020

Useful Pitching Statistics

The Astros have a 107-55 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Zack Greinke has a 18-5 record with an earned run average of 2.93 and a WHIP of 0.98 this season. He has 187 strikeouts over his 208.2 innings pitched and he's given up 175 hits. He's allowed 7.5 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 3.22. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.75 and they have given up 470 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .224 against the bullpen and they've struck out 608 hitters and walked 197 batters. As a team, Houston allows 7.4 hits per nine innings while striking out 10.3 batters per nine innings. They are 3rd in the league in team earned run average at 3.66. The Astros pitchers collectively have given up 1,205 base hits and 595 earned runs. They have allowed 230 home runs this season, ranking them 12th in the league. Houston as a pitching staff has walked 448 batters and struck out 1,671. They have walked 2.8 men per 9 innings while striking out 10.3 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.13 and their FIP as a unit is 3.98.

Related: Get MLB tips & picks on all of today's games

Hitting Statistics

As a team Houston is hitting .274, good for 1st in the league. The Astros hold a .495 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .352, which is good for 1st in baseball. They rank 3rd in MLB with 9.5 hits per game. Yuli Gurriel is hitting .298 with an on-base percentage of .343. He has 168 hits this season in 564 at bats with 104 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .541 and an OPS+ of 126. Alex Bregman is hitting .296 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .423. He has totaled 164 hits and he has driven in 112 men in 554 at bats. His OPS+ is 162 while his slugging percentage is at .592. The Astros have 1,538 hits, including 323 doubles and 288 home runs. Houston has walked 645 times so far this season and they have struck out 1,166 times as a unit. They have left 1,168 men on base and have a team OPS of .848. They score 5.68 runs per contest and have scored a total of 920 runs this year.

Useful Pitching Statistics

Tampa Bay has a 96-66 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 3.05, Charlie Morton has a 16-6 record and a 1.08 WHIP. He has 240 strikeouts over the 194.2 innings he's pitched. He also has given up 154 hits. He's allowing 7.1 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 2.81. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.71 and they have given up 668 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .228 against the Rays bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 825 batters and walked 262 opposing hitters. As a team, Tampa Bay allows 7.8 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.9 batters per nine innings. They are 2nd in the league in team earned run average at 3.65. The Rays pitchers as a team have surrendered 1,274 base knocks and 598 earned runs this season. They have given up 181 home runs this year, which ranks 30th in Major League Baseball. Tampa Bay as a staff has walked 453 hitters and struck out 1,621 batters. They give up a walk 2.8 times per 9 innings while they strike out 9.9 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.17 while their FIP as a staff is 3.65.

Hitting Statistics

As a team, they are batting .254, good for 12th in the league. The Rays hold a .431 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .325, which is good for 13th in baseball. They rank 11th in MLB with 8.8 hits per contest. Tommy Pham comes into this matchup batting .273 with an OBP of .369. He has 155 hits this year along with 68 RBI in 567 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .450 with an OPS+ of 119. Austin Meadows is hitting .291 this season and he has an OBP of .364. He has collected 154 hits in 530 at bats while driving in 89 runs. He has an OPS+ of 143 and a slugging percentage of .558. The Rays as a unit have 1,427 base hits, including 291 doubles and 217 homers. Tampa Bay has walked 542 times this year and they have struck out on 1,493 occasions. They have had 1,130 men left on base and have an OPS of .757. They have scored 4.75 runs per game and totaled 769 runs this season.

Who will win tonight's Astros/Rays MLB game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Astros (-142)

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