Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Prediction, 10/8/2020 MLB Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins

Date: Thursday, October 8, 2020

Location: Marlins Park in Miami, FL

TV: FS1

Odds/Point Spread: Braves (-131) Marlins (+121)

Jesus Aguilar and the Miami Marlins (31-29, 2nd in NL East) host the Atlanta Braves (35-25, 1st in NL East) at Marlins Park on Thursday in Game 3 of the NLDS. Atlanta leads the series 2-0. The Braves open this game at -131 while the Marlins are coming in at +121. The O/U is set at 8.5. The starting pitchers will be Kyle Wright and Sixto Sanchez.

Key Atlanta Braves Injuries

9/27/2020 Cole Hamels SP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/27/2020 Jeremy Walker RP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/27/2020 Phil Pfeifer RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
8/27/2020 Mike Soroka SP Achilles Expected to be out until at least Mar 25, 2021

Key Miami Marlins Injuries

10/7/2020 Josh Smith RP Finger Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
10/4/2020 Logan Forsythe 2B Oblique Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
10/4/2020 Mike Morin RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
10/4/2020 Brandon Leibrandt RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/27/2020 Jeff Brigham RP Undisclosed Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/27/2020 Pat Venditte RP Oblique Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/27/2020 Brian Moran RP Kneecap Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/27/2020 Jordan Holloway RP Undisclosed Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/23/2020 Drew Steckenrider RP Triceps Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/15/2020 Isan Diaz 2B Groin Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/7/2020 Harold Ramirez RF Hamstring Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/5/2020 Elieser Hernandez SP Lat Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021

Useful Pitching Statistics

The Braves had a 35-25 overall record this season. Wright (2-7 career record) sits with a FIP of 6.29 while facing 289 hitters in the majors. His ERA is 6.27 (44 ER's allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.677. He has allowed 63 hits (9.0 hits per nine innings) and has 43 free passes. Wright has thrown 63 innings and has 53 K's so far in his career. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.50 and they have given up 242 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .208 against the bullpen and they've struck out 282 hitters and walked 107 batters. As a team, Atlanta allows 8.5 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.7 batters per nine innings. They are 15th in the league in team earned run average at 4.41. The Braves pitchers collectively have given up 494 base hits and 257 earned runs. They have allowed 69 home runs this season, ranking them 23rd in the league. Atlanta as a pitching staff has walked 220 batters and struck out 506. They have walked 3.8 men per 9 innings while striking out 8.7 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.36 and their FIP as a unit is 4.42.

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Hitting Statistics

As a team Atlanta is hitting .268, good for 2nd in the league. The Braves hold a .483 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .349, which is good for 1st in baseball. They rank 1st in MLB with 9.3 hits per game. Dansby Swanson is hitting .274 with an on-base percentage of .345. He has 65 hits this season in 237 at bats with 35 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .464 and an OPS+ of 110. Freddie Freeman is hitting .341 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .462. He has totaled 73 hits and he has driven in 53 men in 214 at bats. His OPS+ is 186 while his slugging percentage is at .640. The Braves have 556 hits, including 130 doubles and 103 home runs. Atlanta has walked 239 times so far this season and they have struck out 573 times as a unit. They have left 437 men on base and have a team OPS of .832. They score 5.8 runs per contest and have scored a total of 348 runs this year.

Useful Pitching Statistics

Sanchez has conceded 36 hits while he has earned 33 strikeouts in 39 innings. He has given up a total of 15 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.205 and a FIP of 3.5. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.00 and he has faced 158 hitters during his career. Sanchez (3-2 mark) has a 3.46 ERA while surrendering 8.3 hits per nine innings. The bullpen has an earned run average of 5.50 and they have given up 239 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .231 against the Marlins bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 187 batters and walked 118 opposing hitters. As a team, Miami allows 9 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.1 batters per nine innings. They are 21st in the league in team earned run average at 4.86. The Marlins pitchers as a team have surrendered 506 base knocks and 272 earned runs this season. They have given up 82 home runs this year, which ranks 8th in Major League Baseball. Miami as a staff has walked 226 hitters and struck out 451 batters. They give up a walk 4 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.1 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.45 while their FIP as a staff is 5.02.

Hitting Statistics

As a team, they are batting .244, good for 17th in the league. The Marlins hold a .384 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .319, which is good for 17th in baseball. They rank 19th in MLB with 7.9 hits per contest. Jesus Aguilar comes into this matchup batting .277 with an OBP of .352. He has 52 hits this year along with 34 RBI in 188 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .457 with an OPS+ of 120. Jon Berti is hitting .258 this season and he has an OBP of .388. He has collected 31 hits in 120 at bats while driving in 14 runs. He has an OPS+ of 105 and a slugging percentage of .350. The Marlins as a unit have 472 base hits, including 82 doubles and 60 homers. Miami has walked 191 times this year and they have struck out on 537 occasions. They have had 396 men left on base and have an OPS of .703. They have scored 4.38 runs per game and totaled 263 runs this season.

Who will win tonight's Braves/Marlins MLB game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Braves (-131)

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