Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, 9/30/2020 MLB Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves

Date: Wednesday, September 30, 2020

Location: Truist Park in Cumberland, GA

TV: ESPN

Odds/Point Spread: Reds (+132) Braves (-143)

Mike Moustakas and the Cincinnati Reds (31-29, 3rd in NL Central) head to Truist Park on Wednesday where they'll take on the Atlanta Braves (35-25, 1st in NL East) in Game 1 of their NL Wild Card series. The Braves open this contest at -143 while the Reds are priced at +132. The total has been set at 7.5. The pitchers who are expected to start will be Trevor Bauer and Max Fried.

Key Cincinnati Reds Injuries

9/27/2020 Jesse Biddle RP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/19/2020 Tyler Thornburg RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2022
9/15/2020 Leon Jose De Leon RP Groin Expected to be out until at least Oct 15
9/14/2020 Matt Bowman RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2022

Key Atlanta Braves Injuries

9/27/2020 Ronald Acuna RF Wrist Out for the season
9/27/2020 Phil Pfeifer RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/27/2020 Jeremy Walker RP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/27/2020 Cole Hamels SP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/27/2020 Chris Martin RP Groin Out for the season
9/26/2020 Austin Riley 3B Quadriceps Out for the season
9/10/2020 Tommy Milone SP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Oct 1
8/27/2020 Mike Soroka SP Achilles Expected to be out until at least Mar 25, 2021

Useful Pitching Statistics

The Reds have a 31-29 overall record this season. Bauer has taken the hill for 1,190 innings and has earned 1,279 punchouts so far in his career. His ERA is 3.90 (516 ER's allowed) and his WHIP is 1.265. He has allowed 1,051 base knocks (7.9 hits per 9 innings) with 454 walks. Bauer (75-64 win-loss mark in his career) holds a FIP of 3.89 while he has gone up against 5,031 hitters during his time in the major leagues. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.53 and they have given up 152 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .184 against the bullpen and they've struck out 234 hitters and walked 93 batters. As a team, Cincinnati allows 7.2 hits per nine innings while striking out 11 batters per nine innings. They are 7th in the league in team earned run average at 3.84. The Reds pitchers collectively have given up 401 base hits and 215 earned runs. They have allowed 67 home runs this season, ranking them 27th in the league. Cincinnati as a pitching staff has walked 213 batters and struck out 615. They have walked 3.8 men per 9 innings while striking out 11 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.22 and their FIP as a unit is 3.92.

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Hitting Statistics

As a team Cincinnati is hitting .212, good for 30th in the league. The Reds hold a .403 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .312, which is good for 23rd in baseball. They rank 30th in MLB with 6.5 hits per game. Mike Moustakas is hitting .230 with an on-base percentage of .331. He has 32 hits this season in 139 at bats with 27 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .468 and an OPS+ of 108. Joey Votto is hitting .226 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .354. He has totaled 42 hits and he has driven in 22 men in 186 at bats. His OPS+ is 110 while his slugging percentage is at .446. The Reds have 390 hits, including 76 doubles and 90 home runs. Cincinnati has walked 239 times so far this season and they have struck out 534 times as a unit. They have left 369 men on base and have a team OPS of .715. They score 4.05 runs per contest and have scored a total of 243 runs this year.

Useful Pitching Statistics

Fried (26-11 win-loss record in his career) holds a 3.52 earned run average and has surrendered 8.7 hits per nine innings. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.95 and he has faced 1,189 hitters in his career. In his MLB career, Fried has surrendered 272 hits while he has totaled 289 punchouts in 281 innings. He has conceded a total of 110 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.316 and having a FIP of 3.7. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.50 and they have given up 242 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .208 against the Braves bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 282 batters and walked 107 opposing hitters. As a team, Atlanta allows 8.5 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.7 batters per nine innings. They are 15th in the league in team earned run average at 4.41. The Braves pitchers as a team have surrendered 494 base knocks and 257 earned runs this season. They have given up 69 home runs this year, which ranks 23rd in Major League Baseball. Atlanta as a staff has walked 220 hitters and struck out 506 batters. They give up a walk 3.8 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.7 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.36 while their FIP as a staff is 4.42.

Hitting Statistics

As a team, they are batting .268, good for 2nd in the league. The Braves hold a .483 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .349, which is good for 1st in baseball. They rank 1st in MLB with 9.3 hits per contest. Dansby Swanson comes into this matchup batting .274 with an OBP of .345. He has 65 hits this year along with 35 RBI in 237 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .464 with an OPS+ of 110. Freddie Freeman is hitting .341 this season and he has an OBP of .462. He has collected 73 hits in 214 at bats while driving in 53 runs. He has an OPS+ of 186 and a slugging percentage of .640. The Braves as a unit have 556 base hits, including 130 doubles and 103 homers. Atlanta has walked 239 times this year and they have struck out on 573 occasions. They have had 437 men left on base and have an OPS of .832. They have scored 5.8 runs per game and totaled 348 runs this season.

Who will win tonight's Reds/Braves MLB game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Reds (+132)

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