Cincinnati Reds vs Minnesota Twins Prediction, 9/26/2020 MLB Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Cincinnati Reds vs Minnesota Twins

Date: Saturday, September 26, 2020

Location: Target Field in Minneapolis, MN

TV: FSN/FSOH

Odds/Point Spread: Reds (+118) Twins (-128)

Mike Moustakas and the Cincinnati Reds (29-28, 3rd in NL Central) head to Target Field on Saturday where they'll take on the Minnesota Twins (35-22, 1st in AL Central). The moneyline on this contest has the Reds priced at +118 and the Twins are at -128. The total opens at 8. The starting pitchers will be Luis Castillo and Michael Pineda.

Key Cincinnati Reds Injuries

9/21/2020 Jesse Biddle RP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Sep 25
9/19/2020 Tyler Thornburg RP Elbow Out for the season
9/15/2020 Leon Jose De Leon RP Groin Out for the season
9/14/2020 Matt Bowman RP Elbow Out for the season

Key Minnesota Twins Injuries

9/22/2020 Luis Arraez 2B Knee Expected to be out until at least Sep 25
9/22/2020 Jake Odorizzi SP Finger Out for the season
9/13/2020 Brent Rooker RF Forearm Out for the season

Useful Pitching Statistics

The Reds have a 29-28 overall record this season. Castillo (32-32 career win-loss mark) is the owner of a FIP of 3.80 and he has faced 2,122 hitters during his time in the major leagues. His ERA is 3.58 (205 earned runs allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.167. He has surrendered 417 base knocks (7.3 hits per 9 innings) with 184 walks. Castillo has pitched in 515 innings and has 574 strikeouts so far in his pro baseball career. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.72 and they have given up 140 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .183 against the bullpen and they've struck out 212 hitters and walked 90 batters. As a team, Cincinnati allows 7.1 hits per nine innings while striking out 11 batters per nine innings. They are 8th in the league in team earned run average at 3.85. The Reds pitchers collectively have given up 378 base hits and 204 earned runs. They have allowed 67 home runs this season, ranking them 19th in the league. Cincinnati as a pitching staff has walked 204 batters and struck out 581. They have walked 3.8 men per 9 innings while striking out 11 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.22 and their FIP as a unit is 4.03.

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Hitting Statistics

As a team Cincinnati is hitting .211, good for 30th in the league. The Reds hold a .406 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .312, which is good for 23rd in baseball. They rank 30th in MLB with 6.4 hits per game. Mike Moustakas is hitting .228 with an on-base percentage of .340. He has 29 hits this season in 127 at bats with 23 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .441 and an OPS+ of 104. Joey Votto is hitting .227 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .349. He has totaled 40 hits and he has driven in 20 men in 176 at bats. His OPS+ is 110 while his slugging percentage is at .455. The Reds have 366 hits, including 72 doubles and 87 home runs. Cincinnati has walked 227 times so far this season and they have struck out 506 times as a unit. They have left 350 men on base and have a team OPS of .718. They score 4 runs per contest and have scored a total of 228 runs this year.

Useful Pitching Statistics

Pineda (53-46 career mark) has a 4.02 earned run average while allowing 8.6 hits per nine innings. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 4.49 and he has faced 3,513 hitters so far in his pro baseball career. So far in his MLB career, Pineda has given up 814 hits while earning 848 punchouts in 848 innings. He has allowed 379 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.183 and having a FIP of 3.7. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.56 and they have given up 200 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .219 against the Twins bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 253 batters and walked 76 opposing hitters. As a team, Minnesota allows 7.9 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.4 batters per nine innings. They are 3rd in the league in team earned run average at 3.52. The Twins pitchers as a team have surrendered 424 base knocks and 190 earned runs this season. They have given up 59 home runs this year, which ranks 30th in Major League Baseball. Minnesota as a staff has walked 158 hitters and struck out 507 batters. They give up a walk 2.9 times per 9 innings while they strike out 9.4 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.20 while their FIP as a staff is 3.78.

Hitting Statistics

As a team, they are batting .242, good for 18th in the league. The Twins hold a .431 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .316, which is good for 18th in baseball. They rank 21st in MLB with 7.8 hits per contest. Eddie Rosario comes into this matchup batting .256 with an OBP of .321. He has 51 hits this year along with 39 RBI in 199 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .482 with an OPS+ of 118. Max Kepler is hitting .225 this season and he has an OBP of .313. He has collected 36 hits in 160 at bats while driving in 23 runs. He has an OPS+ of 105 and a slugging percentage of .438. The Twins as a unit have 445 base hits, including 69 doubles and 91 homers. Minnesota has walked 177 times this year and they have struck out on 494 occasions. They have had 353 men left on base and have an OPS of .747. They have scored 4.51 runs per game and totaled 257 runs this season.

Who will win tonight's Reds/Twins MLB game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Twins (-128)

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