Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, 10/6/2020 MLB Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves

Date: Tuesday, October 6, 2020

Location: Truist Park in Cumberland, GA

TV: FS1

Odds/Point Spread: Marlins (+170) Braves (-185)

Miguel Rojas and the Miami Marlins (31-29, 2nd in NL East) go to Truist Park on Tuesday where they'll take on the Atlanta Braves (35-25, 1st in NL East) in Game 1 of the NLDS. Miami advanced by sweeping the Cubs and Atlanta got here by sweeping the Reds.  The Marlins open this contest at +170 while the Braves are coming in at -185. The over/under is set at 7.5. The pitchers taking the mound will be Sandy Alcantara and Max Fried.

Key Miami Marlins Injuries

10/4/2020 Brandon Leibrandt RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
10/4/2020 Logan Forsythe 2B Oblique Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
10/4/2020 Mike Morin RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
10/4/2020 Josh Smith RP Finger Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
10/3/2020 Starling Marte CF Hand Out for the season
9/27/2020 Jordan Holloway RP Undisclosed Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/27/2020 Brian Moran RP Kneecap Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/27/2020 Pat Venditte RP Oblique Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/27/2020 Jeff Brigham RP Undisclosed Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/23/2020 Drew Steckenrider RP Triceps Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/15/2020 Isan Diaz 2B Groin Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/7/2020 Harold Ramirez RF Hamstring Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/5/2020 Elieser Hernandez SP Lat Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021

Key Atlanta Braves Injuries

9/27/2020 Cole Hamels SP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/27/2020 Jeremy Walker RP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/27/2020 Phil Pfeifer RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
8/27/2020 Mike Soroka SP Achilles Expected to be out until at least Mar 25, 2021

Useful Pitching Statistics

The Marlins had a 31-29 overall record this season. Alcantara (11-19 career record) has earned a FIP of 4.49 and he has faced 1,195 opposing batters during his time in the majors. His ERA is 3.70 (116 earned runs allowed) and his WHIP is 1.323. He has conceded 248 base hits (7.9 hits per 9 innings) with 125 free passes. Alcantara has taken the mound for 282 frames and is sitting with 230 K's in his MLB career. The bullpen has an earned run average of 5.50 and they have given up 239 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .231 against the bullpen and they've struck out 187 hitters and walked 118 batters. As a team, Miami allows 9 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.1 batters per nine innings. They are 21st in the league in team earned run average at 4.86. The Marlins pitchers collectively have given up 506 base hits and 272 earned runs. They have allowed 82 home runs this season, ranking them 8th in the league. Miami as a pitching staff has walked 226 batters and struck out 451. They have walked 4 men per 9 innings while striking out 8.1 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.45 and their FIP as a unit is 5.02.

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Hitting Statistics

As a team Miami is hitting .244, good for 17th in the league. The Marlins hold a .384 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .319, which is good for 17th in baseball. They rank 19th in MLB with 7.9 hits per game. Miguel Rojas is hitting .304 with an on-base percentage of .392. He has 38 hits this season in 125 at bats with 20 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .496 and an OPS+ of 141. Brian Anderson is hitting .255 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .345. He has totaled 51 hits and he has driven in 38 men in 200 at bats. His OPS+ is 119 while his slugging percentage is at .465. The Marlins have 472 hits, including 82 doubles and 60 home runs. Miami has walked 191 times so far this season and they have struck out 537 times as a unit. They have left 396 men on base and have a team OPS of .703. They score 4.38 runs per contest and have scored a total of 263 runs this year.

Useful Pitching Statistics

Thus far in his career, Fried has conceded 272 hits while he has accumulated 289 strikeouts in 281 innings pitched. He has surrendered a total of 110 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.316 and a FIP of 3.7. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.95 and he has faced 1,189 opposing hitters in his MLB career. Fried (26-11 career mark) has earned a 3.52 earned run average while surrendering 8.7 hits per nine innings. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.50 and they have given up 242 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .208 against the Braves bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 282 batters and walked 107 opposing hitters. As a team, Atlanta allows 8.5 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.7 batters per nine innings. They are 15th in the league in team earned run average at 4.41. The Braves pitchers as a team have surrendered 494 base knocks and 257 earned runs this season. They have given up 69 home runs this year, which ranks 23rd in Major League Baseball. Atlanta as a staff has walked 220 hitters and struck out 506 batters. They give up a walk 3.8 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.7 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.36 while their FIP as a staff is 4.42.

Hitting Statistics

As a team, they are batting .268, good for 2nd in the league. The Braves hold a .483 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .349, which is good for 1st in baseball. They rank 1st in MLB with 9.3 hits per contest. Ronald Acuna Jr comes into this matchup batting .250 with an OBP of .406. He has 40 hits this year along with 29 RBI in 160 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .581 with an OPS+ of 155. Marcell Ozuna is hitting .338 this season and he has an OBP of .431. He has collected 77 hits in 228 at bats while driving in 56 runs. He has an OPS+ of 175 and a slugging percentage of .636. The Braves as a unit have 556 base hits, including 130 doubles and 103 homers. Atlanta has walked 239 times this year and they have struck out on 573 occasions. They have had 437 men left on base and have an OPS of .832. They have scored 5.8 runs per game and totaled 348 runs this season.

Who will win tonight's Marlins/Braves MLB game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Marlins (+170)

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