Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, 4/1/2021 MLB Pick, Tips and Odds
Game: Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox
Date: Thursday, April 1, 2021
Location: Fenway Park in Boston, MA
Odds/Point Spread: Baltimore (+162) Boston (-172)
Fenway Park is the site where Nathan Eovaldi and the Boston Red Sox (24-36, 5th in AL East last year) will take on the Baltimore Orioles (25-35, 4th in AL East last season) on Thursday. The Orioles open this contest at +162 while the Red Sox are coming in at -172. The over/under has been set at 9. The pitchers taking the mound will be John Means and Nathan Eovaldi.
As a squad last year, the Baltimore Orioles knocked in 4.6 runs per outing, which ranked them 16th in the league. They were sitting with 274 runs scored while holding a team on-base percentage of .321. The Orioles earned 102 doubles as a team and hit 77 baseballs out of the park. They compiled 264 RBI's and 523 base knocks for the prior year, while their average at the plate was at .258. Baltimore had a slugging % of .429 and struck out 514 times, while taking a walk on 164 occasions.
The Orioles held a team ERA of 4.52 over the course of last season (16th in baseball), and they rung up 487 hitters. They walked 192 opposing batters and their FIP came in at 4.60 as a team during the previous year. Their strikeout to walk ratio was 2.54 and the pitching staff finished with a WHIP of 1.31. Orioles pitchers surrendered 79 long balls in addition to 294 total runs (15th in MLB). The Orioles dispatched 207 relief pitchers to the hill for the previous season. The relievers inherited 139 base runners in the prior season with 30.9% of those runners earned a run for their team. They earned 11 saves last season and blew 7 of 18 save opportunities. The Orioles relief pitchers accumulated a save percentage of 61.1% and stepped onto the mound in 50 save situations. The relievers notched 32 holds in the previous season (11th in the league). Orioles bullpen pitchers entered the game with opponents on base in 85 games as well as 69 outings with high leverage.
John Means gave up 36 base knocks in 43.2 innings in which he pitched last year. His earned run average was 4.53 and he struck out 42 batters. He allowed 22 earned runs last season and had a K/BB ratio of 6.0. He gave up 7.4 H/9 and he had a WHIP of 0.985. Means held a FIP of 5.6 and an ERA+ of 100. Means (14-15 mark in his career) is the owner of a FIP of 4.67 and he has gone up against 829 hitters during his time in the major leagues. He has allowed 180 base knocks (8.0 hits per nine innings) with 45 walks. His earned run average is 3.97 (89 ER's allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.114. Means has taken the mound for 202 innings and has earned 167 strikeouts during his pro baseball career.
Boston hit 81 home runs last year as well as 278 runs batted in. They notched 118 two-baggers, while getting a free base 187 times and putting up 292 runs. The Boston Red Sox tallied an OBP of .330 and a batting average of .265 in the previous season. The Red Sox had a team slugging percentage of .445 and they earned 4.87 runs per game (11th in the league). They struck out on 545 occasions (8th in MLB) and had 552 base knocks.
The Boston pitching staff allowed 351 runs in the previous season while holding an ERA of 5.58 (325 earned runs conceded). They gave up 98 long balls and they conceded 6.03 runs per 9 innings (29th in baseball). The Red Sox had a team WHIP of 1.601 and had a FIP of 5.19 as a unit for the previous season. They had a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.13 (537 strikeouts against 252 bases on balls). They were ranked 1st in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits given up with 587. Boston relievers held an inherited score percentage of 29.0% out of 96 inherited base runners. Their relievers took the field in 60 games with high leverage and also 55 contests with base runners. Wrapping up the year with 27 save opportunities, the Red Sox had 40 holds in addition to 13 blown saves. They were ranked 27th in MLB with a save rate of 51.9%, and they dispatched 232 bullpen pitchers onto the diamond this season. Boston called on relievers to step onto the hill in 69 save situations and they came away with 14 saves.
Eovaldi had a strikeout to walk ratio of 7.4 with 52 total K's and an ERA+ of 127. His WHIP was at 1.20 and he had a FIP of 3.87 last season. He threw 48.1 innings last season while conceding 9.5 H/9. Eovaldi allowed 51 total base hits while conceding 20 earned runs (3.72 ERA). During his career, Eovaldi has allowed 1,010 hits while he has accumulated 762 strikeouts in 966 innings. Eovaldi (50-56 career record) holds a 4.27 earned run average while allowing 9.4 hits per nine innings. He has conceded a total of 458 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.357 and a FIP of 4.0. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.53 and he has gone up against 4,131 batters so far in his pro baseball career.
Who will win tonight's MLB game ATS?
Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Boston (-172)
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