Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, 5/1/2021 MLB Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds

Date: Saturday, May 1, 2021

Location: Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH

TV: Bally Sports Ohio

Odds/Point Spread: Chicago (+115) Cincinnati (-125)

Luis Castillo and the Cincinnati Reds (11-13, 4th in NL Central) host the Chicago Cubs (11-14, 5th in NL Central) at Great American Ball Park on Saturday. The line on this game has the Cubs priced at +115 and the Reds are at -125. The total is set at 9. The expected starting pitchers are Zach Davies and Luis Castillo.

The Cubs have earned 30 doubles as a unit and have hit 31 balls out of the stadium. Chicago owns a slugging percentage of .385 and have been rung up 253 times, while being walked on 92 occasions. As a team, the Chicago Cubs are notching 4.3 runs per outing, which ranks them 13th in the league. They have earned 104 RBI's in addition to 170 hits on the campaign, and their average at the plate is at .213. They are sitting with 108 runs scored and hold an OBP of .305.

The Cubs hold a team earned run average of 4.79 on the season (28th in the league), and the staff has struck out 231 batters. They have accumulated a K/BB ratio of 2.01 and the pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.46. Cubs pitchers have surrendered 32 home runs in addition to 120 runs in total (25th in the league). They have walked 115 batters and their FIP comes in at 4.75 as a team so far this year.

Cubs pitchers have come into the game with players on base 31 times as well as having 23 appearances in high leverage situations. The relief pitchers have notched 13 holds for the year (13th in the league). The Cubs relievers have compiled a save rate of 71.4% and has come into the game in 21 save situations. They have recorded 5 saves on the campaign and have blown 2 of 7 chances to get a save. The relief pitchers have inherited 55 base runners this season and 29.1% of those players ended up scoring. The Cubs have dispatched 101 relievers to the hill this year.

The Cubs have turned 69.3% of balls in play into outs in their 1,980 innings on the field, ranking them 21st in baseball. The Chicago Cubs have 660 putouts thus far, as well as 228 assists and 9 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding at .990 which is 2nd in baseball, and have a total of 158 double plays.

Davies (51-38 career win-loss record) is the owner of a FIP of 4.24 and he has faced 2,966 opposing hitters in the majors. He has surrendered 700 hits (9.0 hits per 9 innings) and has 214 walks. His earned run average is 3.94 (308 earned runs allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.301. Davies has thrown 702 innings and has totaled 511 punch outs in his MLB career.

Cincinnati has 35 HRs for the season as well as 122 runs batted in. They have notched 42 two-baggers, while getting a free base 78 times as well as putting up 128 runs. The Cincinnati Reds hold a team on-base percentage of .323 and a team batting average of .247 this year. The Reds hold a slugging percentage of .437 and they earn 5.33 runs per game (1st in the league). They have been rung up on 228 instances (12th in baseball) and have earned 202 hits.

The Reds have a WHIP of 1.347 with a FIP of 4.64 as a unit this year. Their K/BB ratio comes in at 2.21 (234 strikeouts against 106 free passes). They come in at 12th in the league as a pitching staff in total hits conceded with 181. They have given up 34 long balls and they surrender 5.15 runs per 9 innings (29th in the league). The Cincinnati pitching staff have relinquished 122 runs for the season while having an ERA of 4.73 (112 earned runs surrendered).

Cincinnati has had bullpen pitchers enter the contest in 9 save opportunities and they have recorded 4 saves. They are ranked 25th in the league with a save rate of 44.4%, and they have sent 86 bullpen pitchers to the hill on the season. Their relievers have stepped onto the hill 24 times in high leverage situations and on 27 occasions with runners on. Cincinnati relievers hold an inherited score percentage of 46.2% out of 39 inherited base runners. Sitting with 17 save situations, the Reds have tallied 8 holds and 5 blown saves.

In their 1,917 innings on the diamond, the Reds have a defensive efficiency of 70.7% (12th in MLB). The Cincinnati Reds have turned 21 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .983 (22nd in pro baseball). The Reds have racked up 204 assists, 15 errors and have amassed 639 putouts during this campaign.

So far in his pro baseball career, Castillo has allowed 455 base knocks while totaling 597 K's in 544 innings. He has given up a total of 226 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.188 and having a FIP of 3.8. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.13 and he has gone up against 2,251 hitters so far in his career. Castillo (33-35 career mark) has earned a 3.74 ERA while allowing 7.5 hits per nine innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Chicago (+115)

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