Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, 4/7/2021 MLB Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds

Date: Wednesday, April 7, 2021

Location: Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH

TV: Bally Sports Ohio

Odds/Point Spread: Pittsburgh (+185) Cincinnati (-294)

Luis Castillo and the Cincinnati Reds (3-1, 2nd in NL Central) play the Pittsburgh Pirates (1-3, 5th in NL Central) at Great American Ball Park on Wednesday. The Reds open this matchup at -294 while the Pirates are priced at +185. The total is set at 8.5. The pitchers who are expected to start will be Chad Kuhl and Luis Castillo.

As a team, the Pittsburgh Pirates are knocking in 3.0 runs per outing, which puts them at 27th in baseball. They have tallied 12 runs while holding a team on-base percentage of .311. The Pirates have hit 3 doubles as a unit and have knocked 5 baseballs out of the stadium. They have accrued 12 runs batted in in addition to 27 hits on the year, while their team batting average is .206. Pittsburgh is slugging .359 and have been called out on strikes 44 times, while drawing a walk on 19 occasions.

The Pirates are sitting with a team ERA of 4.36 for the year (16th in MLB), and they have struck out 45 batters. They have accumulated a K/BB ratio of 2.25 and their pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.21. Pirates pitchers have yielded 5 long balls and also 17 runs (18th in MLB). Their pitching staff has walked 20 opposing hitters and their FIP sits at 4.45 as a squad so far this season.

The Pirates dispatched 210 relievers to the mound over the course of last year. The relievers inherited 96 runners for the prior year with 37.5% of those players crossed home plate. They accumulated 6 saves over the course of last season and did not convert 13 of their 19 chances to get a save. The Pirates relievers had a save rate of 31.6% and stepped onto the hill in 43 save situations. The relievers had 22 holds for the previous season (24th in baseball). Pirates bullpen pitchers entered the contest with runners on base in 64 contests and also 64 contests with high leverage.

Kuhl (20-23 career record) has earned a FIP of 4.46 while facing 1,565 opposing hitters during his time in the major leagues. He has allowed 357 hits (8.9 hits per nine innings) and has 156 free passes. His earned run average is 4.35 (175 earned runs allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.416. Kuhl has thrown 362 frames and is sitting with 322 K's so far in his pro baseball career.

The Cincinnati Reds hold an OBP of .377 as well as a batting average of .279 this season. They have been rung up on 34 occasions (24th in the league) and have recorded 38 base knocks. Cincinnati has a total of 8 home runs on the season as well as 29 runs batted in. The Reds have a team slugging % of .522 and they average 8.00 runs per game (2nd in baseball). They have hit 7 doubles, while getting a free base 18 times as well as putting up 32 runs.

The Cincinnati pitching staff have surrendered 21 runs this season while having an ERA of 4.50 (18 earned runs surrendered). They have conceded 8 dingers and they surrender 5.25 runs per 9 innings (19th in the league). The Reds hold a team WHIP of 1.111 with a FIP of 5.08 as a squad on the year. Their K/BB ratio comes in at 3.38 (44 strikeouts against 13 free passes). They sit at 18th in the league as a staff in total hits allowed with 27.

Ending the season with 17 opportunities for a save, the Reds accrued 25 holds and 8 blown saves last year. Cincinnati had relievers enter the game in 43 save situations and they converted 9 saves. Their relief pitchers came into 53 games with high leverage in addition to 56 contests with base runners. Cincinnati bullpen pitchers had an inherited score rate of 31.0% out of 91 inherited runners. They were ranked 24th in the league holding a save percentage of 52.9%, and they sent 168 bullpen pitchers to the mound last year.

Castillo (32-34 win-loss record in his career) has a 3.73 earned run average while allowing 7.4 hits per 9 innings. His strikeout to walk ratio is 3.11 and he has faced 2,161 hitters in his career. He has surrendered a total of 217 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.180 and having a FIP of 3.8. During his career, Castillo has conceded 431 hits while tallying 578 K's in 523 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Pittsburgh (+185)

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