Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction, 9/28/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres

Date: Sunday, September 28, 2025

Location: Petco Park in San Diego, CA

TV: Padres.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Arizona (+162) San Diego (-196)

The Arizona Diamondbacks (80-79) are headed to Petco Park on Sunday where they will take on the San Diego Padres (87-72). The odds on this game have the Diamondbacks at +162 while the Padres are coming in at -196. The total has been set at 9. The pitchers expected to start will be Brandon Pfaadt and Nick Pivetta.

Arizona is slugging .433 and have been called out on strikes 1,283 times, while drawing a walk on 529 occasions. They have 761 runs batted in as well as 1,353 base knocks over the course of the season, and their average at the plate sits at .251. The Diamondbacks have tallied 272 two-baggers as a squad and have hit 210 balls out of the stadium. They have earned a total of 782 runs scored and hold an OBP of .324. As a squad, the Arizona Diamondbacks are recording 4.9 runs per contest, which puts them at 4th in baseball.

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The Diamondbacks hold a team ERA of 4.43 so far this year (23rd in baseball), and the staff has rung up 1,264 hitters. Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed 191 home runs and 761 runs (23rd in the league). They have walked 489 opposing hitters and their FIP sits at 4.26 as a squad so far this year. Arizona has conceded 1,373 base hits (8.7 per 9 innings) and 699 earned runs. They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.58 and their pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.31.

The Diamondbacks relievers have a save percentage of 59.2% and stepped onto the hill in 164 save situations. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 192 runners on the season with 33.3% of them crossed the plate. Diamondbacks relief pitchers have stepped onto the hill with runners on 146 times in addition to having 164 appearances in high leverage situations. The Diamondbacks have sent 492 relievers to the hill for the year. The relief pitchers have 88 holds on the year (14th in MLB). They have 42 saves so far this year and have blown 29 of 71 chances to get a save.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have amassed 4,260 putouts for the season, in addition to 1,419 assists and 82 errors. Their fielding percentage is at .986 which has them ranked 16th in pro baseball, and have a total of 125 double plays. The Diamondbacks have transformed 69.6% of balls hit into play into outs out of 12,780 innings on the field, which has them ranked 20th in baseball.

Pfaadt (27-27 win-loss record in his career) has a FIP of 4.97 and he has faced 1,928 hitters in the majors. He has surrendered 484 hits (9.7 hits per 9 innings) and has had 105 free passes. His earned run average is 5.05 (252 ER's allowed) and his WHIP is 1.311. Pfaadt has thrown 449 frames and has earned 421 strikeouts during his career.

The San Diego Padres are sitting with a team OBP of .320 as well as a batting average of .252 so far this season. They have been called out on strikes on 1,137 occasions (28th in the league) and have earned 1,339 hits. San Diego has a total of 147 long balls for the year to go along with 639 RBIs. The Padres have a SLG% of .388 and they are recording 4.26 runs per game (19th in the league). They have 248 doubles, while taking a walk 499 times as well as recording 678 runs.

The San Diego pitching staff have yielded 612 runs on the year and come in with a team ERA of 3.64 (569 earned runs conceded). They have yielded 174 homers and they relinquish 3.92 runs per 9 innings (2nd in the league). The Padres hold a team WHIP of 1.203 and are the owners of a FIP of 4.01 as a team for the season. Their K/BB ratio sits at 8.90 (1,392 strikeouts vs 519 bases on balls). They are sitting at 1st in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits conceded with 1,173.

San Diego bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score rate of 29.4% out of 255 inherited base runners. Their relievers have taken the field 208 times in high leverage situations and also on 181 occasions with base runners. With 172 save situations, the Padres have accumulated 103 holds and 16 blown saves. They are ranked 1st in MLB holding a save rate of 75.0%, and they have sent 564 relief pitchers to the mound on the season. San Diego has called on relief pitchers to step onto the hill in 64 save chances and they have recorded 48 saves.

The San Diego Padres have turned 114 double plays and have accounted for a fielding rate of .987 (10th in the majors). The Padres have accrued 1,208 assists, 73 errors and have amassed 4,218 putouts this year. Out of their 12,654 innings played, the Padres have a defensive efficiency of 71.8% (3rd in pro baseball).

So far in his career, Pivetta has given up 1,107 base hits while he has earned 1,329 strikeouts in 1,210 frames. Pivetta (69-76 career mark) has a 4.48 earned run average while allowing 8.2 hits per nine innings. He has surrendered 602 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.267 and having a FIP of 4.4. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.11 and he has gone up against 5,107 opposing batters during his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take San Diego (-196)

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