Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, 7/4/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves

Date: Friday, July 4, 2025

Location: Truist Park in Cumberland, GA

TV: FanDuel Sports Network South

Odds/Point Spread: Baltimore (+125) Atlanta (-145)

The Baltimore Orioles (37-48) are en route to Truist Park on Friday where they will compete against the Atlanta Braves (38-46). The odds on this game have the Orioles at +125 while the Braves are at -145. The total is set at 8. The expected starting pitchers will be Charlie Morton and Spencer Schwellenbach.

The Orioles have earned 130 two-baggers as a team and have hit 101 balls out of the park. Baltimore is slugging .400 and have been rung up 749 times, while drawing a walk on 240 occasions. As a team, the Baltimore Orioles are putting up 4.2 runs per game, which has them at 18th in baseball. They have accounted for 336 RBI's and 687 hits on the campaign, while their team batting average comes in at .241. They have a total of 357 runs and have an OBP of .307.

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They have a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.51 and their pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.43. Orioles pitchers have surrendered 117 long balls and also 438 runs in total (28th in the league). Baltimore has surrendered 790 base knocks (9.5 per 9 innings) and 414 earned runs. The Orioles have an earned run average of 4.99 this year (27th in MLB), and their staff has rung up 697 batters. They have walked 278 hitters and their FIP comes in at 4.48 as a team over the course of the season.

The Orioles have dispatched 301 relievers to the hill on the season. The relievers have inherited 131 base runners this year and 19.1% of those players ended up crossing the plate. They have tallied 19 saves this year and have blown 12 of their 31 chances to save the game. The Orioles relievers have a save rate of 61.3% and have entered the game in 98 save situations. The bullpen have 64 holds so far this season (2nd in the league). Orioles bullpen pitchers have stepped onto the hill with opponents on base 98 times in addition to having 85 appearances in high leverage situations.

The Atlanta Braves have earned a total of 2,239 putouts this season, as well as 745 assists and 47 errors. Their fielding percentage is currently at .984 which puts them in 24th in professional baseball, and have earned 61 double plays. The Orioles have turned 67.2% of balls hit into play into outs out of 6,717 innings on the diamond, which ranks them 29th in professional baseball.

Morton (4-8 win-loss mark in his career) has earned a FIP of 4.94 while he has faced 422 hitters in the major leagues. He has conceded 97 base knocks (9.2 hits per nine innings) and has 39 free passes. His earned run average is 5.02 (53 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.430. Morton has taken the hill for 95 frames and has tallied 84 strikeouts thus far in his career.

The Braves have a SLG% of .379 and they are recording 4.04 runs per contest (24th in the league). They have 116 two-baggers, while getting a free base 295 times as well as earning 339 runs. Atlanta has hit 84 HRs over the course of the season and 326 runs batted in. They have struck out on 721 instances (13th in baseball) and have a total of 691 base hits. The Atlanta Braves have a team on-base percentage of .318 in addition to a team batting average of .243 for the year.

The Atlanta pitching staff have given up 331 runs over the course of the season while having a team ERA of 3.75 (309 earned runs surrendered). They have surrendered 90 home runs and they concede 4.02 runs per 9 innings (10th in the league). The Braves hold a team WHIP of 1.237 in addition to having a FIP of 3.84 as a unit for the year. They have earned a K/BB ratio of 9.30 (763 strikeouts vs 271 walks). They are currently ranked 5th in the league as a pitching staff in total hits given up with 646.

Atlanta relievers have an inherited score percentage of 35.3% out of their 119 inherited runners. Their relievers have come in 81 times in high leverage situations in addition to 86 occasions with base runners. With 56 save situations, the Braves have tallied 32 holds and also 12 blown saves. They rank 28th in MLB with a save percentage of 50.0%, and they have dispatched 259 relief pitchers onto the field so far this season. Atlanta has had relief pitchers step onto the mound in 24 save opportunities and they have earned 12 saves.

The Atlanta Braves have turned 58 double plays and have a fielding rate of .989 (5th in pro baseball). The Braves have racked up 733 assists, 32 errors and have accumulated 2,224 putouts so far this year. In their 6,672 innings played, the Braves have earned a defensive efficiency of 70.4% (13th in baseball).

During his pro baseball career, Schwellenbach has allowed 195 hits while he has accumulated 235 K's in 233 frames. Schwellenbach (15-11 career win-loss record) holds a 3.24 earned run average while allowing 7.5 hits per nine innings. He has allowed a total of 84 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.011 and having a FIP of 3.2. He has a K/BB ratio of 5.73 and he has faced 934 hitters thus far in his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Baltimore (+125)

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