Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, 5/22/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox

Date: Thursday, May 22, 2025

Location: Fenway Park in Boston, MA

TV: NESN

Odds/Point Spread: Baltimore (+162) Boston (-196)

The Boston Red Sox (25-25) will play the Baltimore Orioles (15-32) at Fenway Park on Thursday. The moneyline on this matchup has Baltimore at +162 and Boston is coming in at -196. The total has been set at 8.5. The pitchers taking the mound will be Cade Povich and Lucas Giolito.

As a team, the Baltimore Orioles are putting up 3.7 runs/g, which ranks them 25th in the league. They have tallied 175 runs scored and hold an OBP of .297. The Orioles have hit 63 doubles as a unit and have knocked 55 balls out of the park. They have tallied 166 runs batted in in addition to 357 base knocks over the course of the season, while their batting average sits at .230. Baltimore has a slugging rate of .386 and have been rung up 420 times, while drawing a walk on 132 occasions.

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Their strikeout to walk ratio is 2.15 and the pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.49. Orioles pitchers have conceded 75 home runs and also 264 runs (27th in the league). Baltimore has relinquished 441 base hits (9.8 per 9 innings) and 250 earned runs. The Orioles have compiled a team earned run average of 5.53 on the season (28th in baseball), and they have rung up 357 hitters. They have walked 166 opposing batters and their FIP comes in at 5.07 as a team so far this year.

The Orioles have sent 162 relief pitchers to the hill so far this season. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 73 runners over the course of the season with 24.7% of them ended up crossing the plate. They have 7 saves this year and have blown 3 of their 10 save opportunities. The Orioles bullpen have compiled a save rate of 70.0% and stepped onto the hill in 39 save situations. The relievers have notched 26 holds on the season (19th in the league). Orioles pitchers have stepped onto the hill with runners on base 56 times and also have had 36 appearances in high leverage situations.

The Orioles have transformed 67.8% of balls hit into play into outs out of 3,663 innings, which has them sitting 26th in baseball. The Atlanta Braves have 1,221 putouts for the season, in addition to 425 assists and 27 errors. Their fielding rate is at .984 which has them ranked 21st in professional baseball, and they have turned 34 double plays.

Povich has pitched in 120 innings and has totaled 107 punch outs in his career. His earned run average is 5.24 (70 ER's allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.446. He has allowed 126 base hits (9.4 hits per nine innings) with 48 walks. Povich (4-12 record in his career) holds a FIP of 5.16 while facing 531 opposing hitters during his time in the majors.

The Red Sox hold a slugging percentage of .423 and they are earning 4.78 runs per contest (8th in baseball). They have 92 two-baggers, while getting a free base 168 times as well as scoring 239 runs. Boston has 62 home runs so far this year and 229 runs batted in. They have been rung up on 449 instances (3rd in MLB) and have tallied 438 base hits. The Boston Red Sox have accumulated an OBP of .325 in addition to a team batting average of .253 for the year.

The Red Sox have a team WHIP of 1.332 and have a FIP of 3.84 as a unit for the season. Their K/BB ratio comes in at 8.30 (414 strikeouts vs 157 free passes). They rank 26th in baseball as a staff in total hits allowed with 440. They have yielded 48 HR's and they concede 4.56 runs per 9 innings (21st in the league). The Boston pitching staff have relinquished 227 runs over the course of the season while holding an ERA of 4.02 (200 earned runs yielded).

With 42 save situations, the Red Sox have accrued 18 holds in addition to 11 blown saves. Boston has called on bullpen pitchers to enter the contest in 23 save chances and they have come away with 12 saves. Their relievers have stepped onto the mound 60 times in high leverage situations and on 47 occasions with runners on. Boston relievers hold an inherited score percentage of 31.3% out of their 64 inherited base runners. They sit at 25th in the league holding a save percentage of 52.2%, and they have dispatched 158 relievers onto the field so far this season.

The Boston Red Sox have gotten 47 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .978 (29th in the majors). The Red Sox have 460 assists, 40 errors and have a tally of 1,346 putouts during this campaign. In 4,038 innings played, the Red Sox have a defensive efficiency of 67.3% (27th in the majors).

During his career, Giolito has given up 911 base hits while earning 1,094 K's in 1,033 innings. Giolito (62-63 win-loss record in his career) has earned a 4.49 ERA and has given up 7.9 hits per 9 innings. He has given up a total of 515 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.260 and being the owner of a FIP of 4.4. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.80 and he has gone up against 4,350 hitters during his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Boston (-196)

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