Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Prediction, 8/21/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees

Date: Thursday, August 21, 2025

Location: Yankee Stadium in Bronx, NY

TV: YES

Odds/Point Spread: Boston (+150) New York (-182)

The Boston Red Sox (68-59) are on their way to Yankee Stadium on Thursday where they will attempt to defeat the New York Yankees (68-57). The moneyline on this matchup has the Red Sox at +150 and the Yankees are sitting at -182. The total comes in at 8.5. The expected starting pitchers will be Lucas Giolito and Luis Gil.

The Red Sox have accumulated 257 doubles as a squad and have knocked 151 balls out of the stadium. Boston is slugging .426 and have struck out 1,116 times, while being walked on 407 occasions. As a team, the Boston Red Sox are scoring 5.0 runs per outing, which is 4th in baseball. They have earned 603 runs batted in and 1,090 base knocks this year, and their batting average is .253. They have 629 runs and hold an on-base percentage of .323.

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The Red Sox have compiled a team earned run average of 3.76 over the course of the season (6th in the league), and the staff has rung up 1,028 hitters. Red Sox pitchers have surrendered 129 home runs in addition to 538 total runs (16th in baseball). They have walked 413 batters and their FIP comes in at 4.04 as a team this season. Boston has allowed 1,050 hits (8.4 per 9 innings) as well as 471 earned runs. They have earned a K/BB ratio of 2.49 and their pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.30.

The Red Sox have dispatched 409 relievers to the hill this season. The relievers have inherited 169 base runners this season and 30.2% of those runners ended up crossing the plate. They have earned 33 saves on the year and have blown 23 out of their 56 save opportunities. The Red Sox bullpen have earned a save rate of 58.9% and have stepped onto the mound in 123 save situations. The relief pitchers have tallied 65 holds for the year (21st in the league). Red Sox bullpen pitchers have entered the contest with runners on base 126 times as well as having 150 appearances in high leverage situations.

The Red Sox have turned 69.0% of balls in play into outs in their 10,143 innings on the field, which has them sitting at 24th in pro baseball. The Baltimore Orioles have earned a total of 3,381 putouts this year, as well as 1,162 assists and 97 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding at .979 which has them sitting 29th in MLB, and have earned 103 double plays.

Giolito (69-64 career win-loss mark) is the owner of a FIP of 4.29 and he has gone up against 4,704 batters during his time in the major leagues. He has surrendered 985 base hits (7.9 hits per nine innings) and has 419 free passes. His ERA is 4.36 (542 earned runs allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.254. Giolito has thrown 1,119 frames and is sitting with 1,164 strikeouts during his career.

The Yankees hold a slugging % of .446 and they score 5.13 runs per outing (3rd in the league). They have recorded 202 doubles, while walking 481 times and scoring 636 runs. New York has knocked in 195 home runs this year to go along with 611 RBIs. They have struck out on 1,081 occasions (9th in the league) and have a total of 1,050 hits. The New York Yankees hold an OBP of .330 and a team batting average of .250 this year.

The Yankees have a WHIP of 1.254 in addition to having a FIP of 4.05 as a staff this year. Their K/BB ratio is 9.00 (1,104 strikeouts vs 429 free passes). They come in at 3rd in the league as a staff in total hits surrendered with 948. They have allowed 140 homers and they concede 4.40 runs per 9 innings (17th in baseball). The New York pitching staff have allowed 537 runs for the season while having a team ERA of 4.02 (491 earned runs relinquished).

With 126 save situations, the Yankees have earned 75 holds and also 17 blown saves. New York has called on bullpen pitchers to enter the game in 50 save chances and they have walked away with 33 saves. Their relief pitchers have come in 124 times in high leverage situations and also on 135 occasions with runners on. New York relievers hold an inherited score percentage of 26.5% out of 200 inherited runners. They are ranked 8th in baseball holding a save rate of 66.0%, and they have sent 415 relievers onto the field on the year.

In 9,888 innings played, the Yankees have a defensive efficiency of 70.9% (6th in MLB). The New York Yankees have gotten 81 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .984 (22nd in professional baseball). The Yankees have accrued 1,050 assists, 69 errors and have accounted for 3,296 putouts for the year.

So far in his pro baseball career, Gil has allowed 144 hits while he has totaled 228 punch outs in 199 innings. He has surrendered a total of 81 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.256 and a FIP of 3.6. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.15 and he has faced 846 opposing hitters thus far in his career. Gil (17-9 win-loss mark in his career) has earned a 3.66 ERA and has allowed 6.5 hits per nine innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take New York (-182)

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