Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Prediction, 9/30/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees

Date: Tuesday, September 30, 2025

Location: Yankee Stadium in Bronx, NY

TV: ESPN

Odds/Point Spread: Boston (+162) New York (-196)

In Game 1 of the ALWC, the Boston Red Sox (89-73) are en route to Yankee Stadium where they will compete against the New York Yankees (94-68). The odds on this game have the Red Sox at +110 and the Yankees are priced at -130. The total is set at 7. The pitchers who are expected to start will be Garrett Crochet and Max Fried.

As a unit, the Boston Red Sox are knocking in 4.9 runs per game, which has them at 7th in MLB. They have earned a total of 786 runs scored and have an OBP of .324. The Red Sox have hit 324 doubles as a team and have smacked 186 balls out of the park. They have 748 runs batted in as well as 1,414 base knocks on the campaign, and their team batting average is .254. Boston has a slugging percentage of .421 and have been called out on strikes 1,419 times, while taking a walk on 518 occasions.

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They have earned a K/BB ratio of 2.57 and their pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.29. Red Sox pitchers have conceded 164 home runs in addition to 676 runs (10th in MLB). Boston has conceded 1,333 hits (8.3 per 9 innings) in addition to 596 earned runs. The Red Sox have compiled a team ERA of 3.70 for the year (4th in the league), and their staff has rung up 1,361 batters. Their pitching staff has walked 530 opposing players and their FIP sits at 3.98 as a team on the season.

Red Sox pitchers have entered the game with runners on 160 times as well as having 192 appearances in high leverage situations. The relief pitchers have earned 86 holds on the season (19th in the league). The Red Sox bullpen have a save rate of 61.6% and have stepped onto the mound in 161 save situations. They have compiled 45 saves this season and have blown 28 out of their 73 save opportunities. The relief pitchers have inherited 223 runners on the year with 33.2% of them crossed the plate. The Red Sox have sent 536 relievers to the hill so far this year.

The Baltimore Orioles have earned 4,345 putouts at this point in the season, in addition to 1,461 assists and 116 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding steady at .980 which puts them in 30th in professional baseball, and have accumulated 131 double plays. The Red Sox have turned 69.1% of baseballs in play into outs out of 13,035 innings on the field, which ranks them 22nd in the majors.

Crochet has taken the mound for 424 innings and has racked up 549 K's so far in his MLB career. Crochet (27-24 career win-loss record) has earned a FIP of 2.91 while facing 1,725 opposing hitters in the majors. His ERA is 2.95 (139 ER's allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.094. He has surrendered 345 hits (7.3 hits per 9 innings) and has had 119 free passes.

New York has hit 274 home runs this season and 820 RBIs. They have 255 doubles, while taking a walk 639 times as well as earning 849 runs. The New York Yankees have compiled a team on-base percentage of .332 as well as a batting average of .251 so far this year. The Yankees hold a slugging percentage of .455 and they tally 5.24 runs per contest (1st in baseball). They have struck out on 1,463 occasions (3rd in MLB) and have earned 1,371 hits.

The Yankees are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.248 and are the owners of a FIP of 4.00 as a pitching staff for the year. Their K/BB ratio comes in at 9.00 (1,440 strikeouts against 557 bases on balls). They are sitting at 4th in MLB as a staff in total hits surrendered with 1,239. They have allowed 175 home runs and they concede 4.28 runs per 9 innings (14th in the league). The New York pitching staff have allowed 685 runs this year while having an ERA of 3.91 (625 earned runs relinquished).

New York bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score percentage of 27.5% of 255 inherited base runners. Their relief pitchers have taken the field 165 times in high leverage situations and on 167 occasions with runners on. Sitting with 166 save situations, the Yankees have earned 100 holds in addition to 21 blown saves. They rank 7th in the league holding a save percentage of 67.2%, and they have sent 533 bullpen pitchers to the hill this year. New York has called on bullpen pitchers to step onto the hill in 64 save opportunities and they have walked away with 43 saves.

In 12,957 innings on the field, the Yankees are sitting with a defensive efficiency of 70.8% (6th in professional baseball). The New York Yankees have turned 105 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .984 (24th in pro baseball). The Yankees have accrued 1,389 assists, 94 errors and have accumulated 4,319 putouts for the year.

Fried (92-41 career mark) is the owner of a 3.04 earned run average while giving up 7.9 hits per 9 innings. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.54 and he has faced 4,415 opposing batters so far in his pro baseball career. He has allowed a total of 364 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.153 and a FIP of 3.0. In his MLB career, Fried has given up 947 hits while accumulating 1,052 punch outs in 1,079 frames.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Boston (+162)

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