Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, 7/5/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies

Date: Saturday, July 5, 2025

Location: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA

TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia

Odds/Point Spread: Cincinnati (+110) Philadelphia (-132)

Citizens Bank Park is the site where the Philadelphia Phillies (51-36) will attempt to beat the Cincinnati Reds (45-42) on Saturday. The moneyline on this game has the Reds at +110 and the Phillies open at -132. The over/under has been set at 9. The starting pitchers will be Nick Lodolo and Ranger Suarez.

As a team, the Cincinnati Reds are knocking in 4.6 runs per game, which is 9th in the league. They have tallied 404 runs while holding a team on-base percentage of .319. The Reds have recorded 143 doubles as a unit and have hit 94 balls out of the park. They have earned 384 runs batted in as well as 722 base knocks this season, while their team batting average is at .247. Cincinnati owns a slugging percentage of .400 and have been rung up 755 times, while drawing a walk on 290 occasions.

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Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 2.59 and their pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.24. Reds pitchers have yielded 105 long balls in addition to 369 runs (16th in baseball). Cincinnati has conceded 681 base hits (8.0 per 9 innings) and 336 earned runs. The Reds hold a team earned run average of 3.93 so far this year (16th in MLB), and the staff has struck out 696 batters. Their pitching staff has walked 269 opposing batters and their FIP sits at 4.25 as a team so far this season.

Reds relief pitchers have come into the game with runners on base 67 times and also have had 79 appearances in high leverage situations. The relief pitchers have a total of 54 holds for the year (11th in MLB). The Reds bullpen have recorded a save rate of 65.6% and have entered the game in 88 save situations. They have 21 saves for the season and have blown 11 of their 32 chances to get a save. The relievers have inherited 104 runners on the season and 32.7% of them ended up crossing the plate. The Reds have sent 294 relievers to the hill so far this season.

The Reds have transformed 71.8% of balls hit into play into outs out of 6,927 innings, which has them sitting at 3rd in MLB. The Chicago White Sox are sitting with 2,309 putouts this year, as well as 665 assists and 41 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding at .986 which puts them in 15th in baseball, and they have turned 49 double plays.

Lodolo (20-19 win-loss mark in his career) has earned a FIP of 4.19 while he has faced 1,498 opposing batters during his time in the majors. He has given up 330 base hits (8.6 hits per nine innings) and has 106 free passes. His ERA is 4.25 (164 ER's allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.256. Lodolo has thrown 347 innings and has 385 K's so far in his MLB career.

The Philadelphia Phillies have compiled an OBP of .330 as well as a team batting average of .256 for the season. They have been called out on strikes on 686 occasions (20th in the league) and have notched a total of 755 base hits. Philadelphia has hit 92 long balls on the campaign and 380 runs batted in. The Phillies have a slugging percentage of .404 and they score 4.59 runs per game (10th in baseball). They have notched 135 two-baggers, while taking a walk 301 times and scoring 399 runs.

The Phillies have a team WHIP of 1.263 and have a FIP of 3.60 as a team so far this season. They are sitting at 20th in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits surrendered with 725. The Philadelphia pitching staff have conceded 347 runs this year while holding a team ERA of 3.71 (320 earned runs surrendered). They currently have a strikeout to walk ratio of 9.30 (801 strikeouts vs 255 bases on balls). They have given up 89 dingers and they yield 4.02 runs per 9 innings (11th in the league).

Philadelphia bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score rate of 38.5% out of their 78 inherited base runners. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the hill 91 times in high leverage situations and on 55 occasions with base runners. Sitting with 81 save situations, the Phillies have earned 38 holds and also 16 blown saves. They sit at 16th in the league with a save rate of 61.9%, and they have dispatched 266 relief pitchers to the mound so far this season. Philadelphia has had bullpen pitchers take the mound in 42 save chances and they have come away with 26 saves.

The Philadelphia Phillies have turned 59 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .990 (3rd in professional baseball). The Phillies have recorded 758 assists, 32 errors and have earned 2,328 putouts for the season. In their 6,984 innings played, the Phillies have a defensive efficiency of 68.7% (23rd in baseball).

During his pro baseball career, Suarez has allowed 629 base hits and he has 621 punch outs in 676 innings pitched. Suarez (48-31 career win-loss record) holds a 3.27 ERA while allowing 8.4 hits per 9 innings. He has surrendered a total of 246 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.254 and a FIP of 3.2. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.84 and he has gone up against 2,828 opposing batters in his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Cincinnati (+110)

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