Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, 7/3/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago Cubs

Date: Thursday, July 3, 2025

Location: Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL

TV: Marquee

Odds/Point Spread: Cleveland (+220) Chicago (-275)

The Cleveland Guardians (40-43) are on their way to Wrigley Field on Thursday where they will try to beat the Chicago Cubs (50-35). The moneyline on this matchup has the Guardians at +220 and the Cubs are sitting at -275. The over/under has been set at 8. The starting pitchers are Luis Ortiz and Cade Horton.

Cleveland is slugging .364 and have struck out 687 times, while being walked on 259 occasions. They have earned 290 runs batted in and 608 base knocks so far this year, and their batting average is .225. The Guardians have accumulated 115 doubles as a team and have hit 81 baseballs out of the stadium. They are sitting with 305 runs scored while holding a team on-base percentage of .297. As a unit, the Cleveland Guardians are notching 3.7 runs per game, which has them sitting at 26th in the league.

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Their K/BB ratio is 2.29 and the pitching staff has a team WHIP of 1.38. Guardians pitchers have relinquished 87 long balls and also 355 runs in total (15th in the league). Cleveland has surrendered 707 base hits (8.7 per 9 innings) and also 329 earned runs. The Guardians have compiled a team ERA of 4.05 this year (19th in the league), and their staff has struck out 691 batters. Their pitching staff has walked 302 opposing batters and their FIP sits at 4.10 as a unit on the year.

The Guardians have sent 277 relief pitchers to the hill so far this season. The relievers have inherited 102 base runners for the season with 39.2% of them crossed the plate. They have 23 saves on the campaign and have blown 8 out of their 31 save chances. The Guardians bullpen have earned a save rate of 74.2% and have entered the game in 91 save situations. The relief pitchers have earned 59 holds on the year (4th in the league). Guardians bullpen pitchers have gone to the mound with players on base 71 times and also have had 80 appearances in high leverage situations.

The Cincinnati Reds have 2,194 putouts this season, as well as 668 assists and 63 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding at .978 which has them sitting 28th in professional baseball, and have a total of 66 double plays. The Guardians have converted 67.7% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 6,582 innings on the field, ranking them 28th in professional baseball.

Ortiz has thrown 326 innings and has tallied 279 strikeouts in his career. Ortiz (16-22 career record) holds a FIP of 3.99 while facing 1,407 batters during his time in the majors. His earned run average is 4.05 (147 ER's allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.342. He has given up 296 base knocks (8.2 hits per nine innings) with 142 walks.

The Chicago Cubs are sitting with a team OBP of .326 as well as a team batting average of .257 so far this season. They have been rung up on 662 instances (25th in the league) and have notched a total of 755 hits. Chicago has tallied 125 home runs over the course of the season to go along with 449 runs batted in. The Cubs hold a slugging percentage of .446 and they have an average of 5.39 runs per outing (2nd in the league). They have recorded 150 doubles, while taking a walk 293 times and racking up 458 runs.

The Cubs have a team WHIP of 1.242 with a FIP of 4.16 as a squad this season. They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 7.60 (637 strikeouts against 233 free passes). They are sitting at 17th in the league as a pitching staff in total hits conceded with 709. They have conceded 100 dingers and they allow 4.17 runs per 9 innings (14th in MLB). The Chicago pitching staff have allowed 351 runs for the season while having an ERA of 3.85 (324 earned runs relinquished).

With 85 save situations, the Cubs have amassed 53 holds in addition to 9 blown saves. Chicago has called on relievers to enter the contest in 29 save opportunities and they have walked away with 20 saves. Their bullpen pitchers have stepped onto the mound 90 times in high leverage situations in addition to 60 occasions with runners on base. Chicago bullpen pitchers have an inherited score percentage of 32.1% out of their 81 inherited base runners. They rank 8th in the league holding a save percentage of 69.0%, and they have sent 282 bullpen pitchers to the hill over the course of the season.

The Chicago Cubs have gotten 73 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .988 (6th in professional baseball). The Cubs have racked up 727 assists, 36 errors and have amassed 2,276 putouts on the campaign. In 6,828 innings on the diamond, the Cubs hold a efficiency on defense of 70.8% (10th in pro baseball).

In his career, Horton has surrendered 51 hits while he has accumulated 33 punch outs in 45 innings. He has conceded 24 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.444 and a FIP of 4.7. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.36 and he has gone up against 200 opposing batters so far in his MLB career. Horton (3-2 mark in his career) is the owner of a 4.80 ERA and has surrendered 10.2 hits per 9 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Cleveland (+220)

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