Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, 9/30/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians

Date: Tuesday, September 30, 2025

Location: Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH

TV: ESPN

Odds/Point Spread: Detroit (+162) Cleveland (-196)

The Detroit Tigers (87-75) are en route to Progressive Field on Tuesday where they will try to beat the Cleveland Guardians (88-74) in Game 1 of the ALWC. The odds on this game have Detroit at -150 and Cleveland is opening at +125. The over/under comes in at 6.5. The pitchers taking the mound will be Tarik Skubal and Gavin Williams.

Detroit has a slugging percentage of .413 and have struck out 1,454 times, while drawing a walk on 511 occasions. They have earned 724 runs batted in and 1,346 base knocks this year, and their average at the plate is sitting at .247. The Tigers have tallied 244 two-baggers as a unit and have hit 198 baseballs out of the park. They have 758 runs scored while holding a team on-base percentage of .316. As a team, the Detroit Tigers are scoring 4.7 runs per game, which has them sitting at 11th in the league.

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They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.84 and their pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.25. Tigers pitchers have allowed 187 home runs and 691 runs in total (16th in baseball). Detroit has surrendered 1,309 base hits (8.2 per 9 innings) as well as 630 earned runs. The Tigers are sitting with a team earned run average of 3.95 on the year (16th in the league), and they have struck out 1,375 batters. Their pitching staff has walked 485 opposing players and their FIP comes in at 4.05 as a team for the season.

The Tigers bullpen have earned a save rate of 64.5% and have entered the game in 142 save situations. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 258 base runners on the season with 28.7% of them crossed home plate. Tigers bullpen pitchers have entered the game with runners on 182 times and also have had 140 appearances in high leverage situations. The Tigers have sent 508 relief pitchers to the mound this season. The relievers have a total of 75 holds for the season (26th in baseball). They have 40 saves this year and have blown 22 out of their 62 save opportunities.

The Tigers have turned 70.2% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 12,927 innings on the diamond, which ranks them 13th in pro baseball. The Colorado Rockies have notched a total of 4,309 putouts this season, as well as 1,379 assists and 79 errors. Their fielding percentage is currently at .986 which ranks 14th in professional baseball, and have a total of 128 double plays.

Skubal has pitched in 766 innings and has totaled 889 punch outs in his MLB career. His earned run average is 3.08 (262 earned runs allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.026. He has conceded 614 hits (7.2 hits per 9 innings) and has had 172 free passes. Skubal (54-37 win-loss mark in his career) has a FIP of 3.03 while he has gone up against 3,056 opposing batters in the major leagues.

Cleveland has tallied 168 home runs so far this season and 621 runs batted in. They have recorded 243 two-baggers, while walking 494 times as well as scoring 643 runs. The Cleveland Guardians have an on-base percentage of .296 as well as a team batting average of .226 on the campaign. The Guardians hold a slugging percentage of .373 and they are scoring 3.97 runs per contest (28th in MLB). They have struck out on 1,344 occasions (18th in baseball) and have notched a total of 1,199 hits.

The Guardians hold a team WHIP of 1.261 in addition to having a FIP of 3.95 as a staff for the season. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 8.60 (1,381 strikeouts vs 527 walks). They rank 11th in MLB as a staff in total hits relinquished with 1,291. They have given up 169 homers and they concede 4.05 runs per 9 innings (6th in baseball). The Cleveland pitching staff have surrendered 649 runs on the year while holding a team ERA of 3.70 (593 earned runs relinquished).

Cleveland bullpen pitchers have an inherited score percentage of 32.5% out of 209 inherited runners. Their relief pitchers have taken the field 192 times in high leverage situations in addition to 151 occasions with base runners. Sitting with 184 save situations, the Guardians have compiled 112 holds in addition to 22 blown saves. They are ranked 6th in the league holding a save rate of 68.1%, and they have dispatched 531 bullpen pitchers onto the field so far this season. Cleveland has called on bullpen pitchers to enter the contest in 69 save chances and they have come away with 47 saves.

In 12,978 innings played, the Guardians have earned a defensive efficiency of 69.8% (17th in the majors). The Cleveland Guardians have turned 121 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .983 (27th in pro baseball). The Guardians have accrued 1,330 assists, 99 errors and have earned 4,326 putouts so far this season.

Williams (18-20 career record) is the owner of a 3.54 earned run average while giving up 7.4 hits per nine innings. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.19 and he has faced 1,381 opposing batters in his pro baseball career. He has surrendered 128 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.292 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.5. In his MLB career, Williams has conceded 268 base hits while totaling 333 K's in 325 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Detroit (+162)

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