Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction, 8/21/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles

Date: Thursday, August 21, 2025

Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, MD

TV: MASN

Odds/Point Spread: Houston (-128) Baltimore (+106)

Oriole Park at Camden Yards is where the Baltimore Orioles (59-67) will meet the Houston Astros (69-57) on Thursday. The line on this contest has the Astros at -128 and the Orioles are opening at +106. The total comes in at 8.5. The expected starting pitchers will be Jason Alexander and Brandon Young.

As a team, the Houston Astros are scoring 4.2 runs per game, which ranks them 21st in MLB. They have tallied 530 runs while holding a team on-base percentage of .319. The Astros have earned 190 doubles as a squad and have knocked 136 baseballs out of the park. They have accrued 507 runs batted in and 1,077 base knocks over the course of the season, and their team batting average sits at .254. Houston has a slugging % of .401 and have been called out on strikes 988 times, while drawing a walk on 364 occasions.

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The Astros hold a team earned run average of 3.89 on the campaign (13th in MLB), and their staff has rung up 1,180 hitters. Astros pitchers have yielded 151 home runs in addition to 513 runs in total (8th in baseball). Their pitching staff has walked 381 opposing players and their FIP sits at 3.93 as a team this year. Houston has conceded 975 hits (7.9 per 9 innings) as well as 482 earned runs. They have accumulated a K/BB ratio of 3.10 and the pitching staff holds a WHIP of 1.22.

The Astros have dispatched 394 relievers to the hill on the year. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 126 base runners this season with 27.0% of them ended up scoring. They have 36 saves for the year and have blown 13 of 49 chances to save the game. The Astros bullpen have a save percentage of 73.5% and have entered the game in 124 save situations. The relief pitchers are sitting with 73 holds for the year (12th in MLB). Astros pitchers have stepped onto the hill with runners on base 94 times as well as having 124 appearances in high leverage situations.

The Astros have converted 70.5% of balls in play into outs out of their 10,026 innings on the diamond, which has them sitting at 11th in pro baseball. The Detroit Tigers have a tally of 3,342 putouts thus far, as well as 977 assists and 50 errors. Their fielding percentage is at .989 which has them sitting 6th in the majors, and have accumulated 81 double plays.

Alexander has taken the mound for 114 innings and has earned 81 K's during his career. Alexander (5-4 career mark) holds a FIP of 5.11 while he has gone up against 511 opposing hitters during his time in the majors. His earned run average is 5.19 (66 earned runs allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.521. He has surrendered 128 hits (10.1 hits per 9 innings) and has 46 free passes.

Baltimore has compiled 151 long balls for the season to go along with 513 runs batted in. They have notched 202 two-baggers, while getting a free base 343 times as well as putting up 543 runs. The Baltimore Orioles have compiled an on-base percentage of .306 as well as a batting average of .241 on the year. The Orioles have a team SLG% of .405 and they are scoring 4.34 runs per game (18th in baseball). They have struck out on 1,077 occasions (10th in MLB) and have recorded 1,009 base hits.

The Baltimore pitching staff have conceded 608 runs for the season while having a team ERA of 4.68 (572 earned runs relinquished). They have surrendered 166 home runs and they surrender 4.97 runs per 9 innings (26th in baseball). The Orioles are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.379 and have a FIP of 4.41 as a squad on the campaign. They currently have a K/BB ratio of 8.40 (1,031 strikeouts vs 404 walks). They sit at 28th in the league as a pitching staff in total hits surrendered with 1,114.

Sitting with 132 save situations, the Orioles have earned 84 holds and 16 blown saves. Baltimore has had relief pitchers take the mound in 45 save opportunities and they have earned 29 saves. Their relievers have stepped onto the mound 127 times in high leverage situations and on 123 occasions with base runners. Baltimore relievers have an inherited score percentage of 23.8% out of 164 inherited base runners. They sit at 11th in the league with a save percentage of 64.4%, and they have dispatched 420 bullpen pitchers to the hill over the course of the season.

In 9,909 innings played, the Orioles are sitting with a efficiency on defense of 68.3% (28th in MLB). The Baltimore Orioles have turned 89 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .986 (18th in professional baseball). The Orioles have recorded 1,092 assists, 62 errors and have a tally of 3,303 putouts so far this season.

Young (1-6 career win-loss record) has a 5.70 earned run average and has given up 10.0 hits per nine innings. His strikeout to walk ratio is 2.30 and he has gone up against 229 batters during his pro baseball career. He has conceded 33 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.497 and having a FIP of 5.6. Thus far in his career, Young has allowed 58 base hits and he has 46 punch outs in 52 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Houston (-128)

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