Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots Prediction, 9/7/2025 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 1

Game: Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots

Date: Sunday, September 7, 2025

Location: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA

TV: CBS

Odds-Point Spread: Patriots (-2.5)

Total-Over-Under: 43.5

The New England Patriots (4-13 last year) will play the Las Vegas Raiders (4-13 last season) at Gillette Stadium on Sunday. New England opens this matchup as 2.5-point favorites. The over-under is set at 43.5.

The Las Vegas Raiders wrapped up their year with a 4-13 record. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Raiders went up against the Los Angeles Chargers and ended up losing by a score of 34-20. Alexander Mattison led the offense in rushing for the Raiders with 6 carries for 20 yds (3.3 yds per carry). Jakobi Meyers averaged 13.7 yards per catch by earning 123 yds on 9 receptions. Aidan O'Connell finished 24-34 with 214 yards through the air and 2 touchdowns. He had a QB rating of 94.5 and walked away from the contest with 1 pick. Against the run, the Raiders gave up 137 yds on 35 attempts, which is an average of 3.9 yards per rush surrendered. Las Vegas surrendered 28 pass completions on 36 attempts for a total of 336 yds, and a completion percentage of 77.8%. Once the final whistle blew, they tallied 48 plays which totaled 264 yards. The Las Vegas Raiders ran the ball 12 different times and compiled 39 yds, which earned them an average of 3.3 yards per attempt.

The Raiders totaled 5,154 total yards for last year. Las Vegas earned 209 1st downs as a team, and they committed 96 penalties for 807 yds. Las Vegas collected 19 touchdowns through the air and 10 touchdowns via the run. They surrendered the football 29 different times (16 interceptions and 13 fumbles lost). As a team, they had an average of 79.8 rushing yds, putting them 32nd in football. If you examine distribution of touchdowns, the squad representing Las Vegas held an average of 18.2 points per contest.

When it comes to passing yds, the Raiders allowed 3,676 total yards which ranked them 15th in professional football. They surrendered 216.2 total yards per contest via the pass, and conceded a completion% 66.0%. They allowed 29 passing touchdowns, plus 14 via the rush. In total, they conceded 333.1 per contest, ranking them 15th in football. They allowed teams to run for an average of 4.4 yards per rushing attempt and 116.9 rushing yards per contest last season. The Raiders were 26th in pro football if you examine their defensive abilities, conceding 25.5 points per contest. In total, they granted 1,987 yards via the ground game in 17 games in the previous season.

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The Patriots concluded the year having accumulated a 4-13 mark. When they last took the field, the Patriots took home the win by a final score of 23-16 when they played the Buffalo Bills. Joe Milton (1 TD) finished the game with 241 yards on 22-29 passing while his quarterback rating was 111.4. He didn't toss any interceptions and his average yds per pass attempt was 8.3 yards. Kayshon Boutte was a featured target for the Patriots, catching 7 throws for 117 yds (16.7 yds per catch). Antonio Gibson carried the ball 12 times for 41 yards, ending the contest with 3.4 yards per attempt for New England. The Patriots finished with 309 yards and they ran 60 plays (5.2 yards per play). New England rushed the ball for 2.6 yards per carry, finishing with a total of 77 yds on 30 carries. New England allowed 33 rush attempts for 130 yds (3.9 yds per rush). The Patriots secondary allowed a completion percentage of 56.3%, surrendering 129 yards on 18 out of 32 through the air.

Regarding the points being put on the board, the Patriots ranked 30th in the NFL, with 17.0 points per game. Last year, the Patriots threw for a total of 2,995 passing yds and were sitting at 176.2 passing yds per outing, which ranked them 32nd in professional football. They averaged 115.8 rushing yards per contest, and carried the ball for 1,969 yards. The New England Patriots averaged 292.0 yds per game, putting them 31st in football. The New England offense granted 916 total yards on 111 violations, which ranked them 15th in professional football if you look at making mistakes.

The Patriots conceded 24.5 points per contest, which had them sitting 22nd in pro football. They granted 27 touchdowns via the pass along with 211.5 pass yards per game, which had them sitting 10th in the NFL. New England conceded a total of 2,233 rushing yds (131.4 yds per contest), along with 16 touchdowns to runners for the previous season. The Patriots defense participated in 1,068 plays, which ranked them 25th in professional football. The D had a total of 12 turnovers (5 forced fumbles and 7 INTs) for the previous season.

Who will win tonight's Raiders-Patriots NFL game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Patriots -2.5

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