Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, 8/17/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox

Date: Sunday, August 17, 2025

Location: Fenway Park in Boston, MA

TV: NESN

Odds/Point Spread: Miami (+110) Boston (-132)

The Boston Red Sox (66-56) will try to beat the Miami Marlins (58-63) at Fenway Park on Sunday. The odds on this game have the Marlins at +110 and the Red Sox are priced at -132. The total has been set at 9. The pitchers taking the mound will be Janson Junk and Garrett Crochet.

Miami has a slugging rate of .396 and have been called out on strikes 952 times, while drawing a walk on 372 occasions. They have accrued 503 runs batted in as well as 1,040 base knocks so far this season, while their average at the plate sits at .252. The Marlins have compiled 202 doubles as a squad and have smacked 117 balls out of the park. They have earned 525 runs while having a team on-base percentage of .316. As a team, the Miami Marlins are recording 4.3 runs/g, which has them sitting at 17th in MLB.

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Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 2.56 and their pitching staff holds a WHIP of 1.30. Marlins pitchers have given up 134 long balls and also 582 total runs (24th in the league). Miami has given up 1,025 base knocks (8.6 per 9 innings) in addition to 543 earned runs. The Marlins are sitting with a team ERA of 4.56 this season (25th in the league), and the staff has struck out 955 batters. Their pitching staff has walked 373 opposing batters and their FIP is 4.15 as a squad so far this season.

Marlins relief pitchers have entered the game with players on base 90 times and also have had 125 appearances in high leverage situations. The relievers have 66 holds so far this year (18th in baseball). The Marlins relievers have a save percentage of 60.4% and have stepped onto the mound in 115 save situations. They have accumulated 29 saves this season and have blown 19 of their 48 save chances. The relievers have inherited 130 runners so far this season and 30.8% of those players crossed home plate. The Marlins have sent 373 relievers to the mound so far this year.

The Marlins have converted 69.7% of balls hit into play into outs out of 9,651 innings, ranking them 16th in MLB. The Los Angeles Dodgers have earned a total of 3,217 putouts over the course of the season, as well as 1,033 assists and 60 errors. Their fielding percentage is at .986 which ranks 17th in professional baseball, and they have turned 84 double plays.

Junk has thrown 115 innings and has accounted for 86 strikeouts in his MLB career. Junk (7-5 career record) has a FIP of 4.93 while he has faced 493 opposing hitters during his time in the majors. His earned run average is 5.00 (64 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.355. He has conceded 137 base hits (10.7 hits per nine innings) and has had 19 walks.

The Red Sox hold a team SLG% of .430 and they average 5.03 runs per game (5th in MLB). They have recorded 250 doubles, while walking 397 times as well as putting up 614 runs. Boston has compiled 149 long balls for the season as well as 588 RBIs. They have been rung up on 1,087 instances (3rd in the league) and have earned a total of 1,065 base hits. The Boston Red Sox have tallied an on-base percentage of .325 and a team batting average of .254 this year.

The Boston pitching staff have allowed 521 runs over the course of the season while holding a team ERA of 3.75 (454 earned runs yielded). They have yielded 123 long balls and they give up 4.30 runs per 9 innings (15th in the league). The Red Sox have a team WHIP of 1.302 with a FIP of 4.02 as a squad on the year. They currently have a K/BB ratio of 8.20 (1,000 strikeouts against 407 walks). They come in at 21st in baseball as a pitching staff in total hits relinquished with 1,013.

Sitting with 120 save situations, the Red Sox have 64 holds and also 22 blown saves. Boston has had relievers enter the contest in 54 save opportunities and they have earned 32 saves. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the mound 146 times in high leverage situations and on 121 occasions with base runners. Boston relievers have an inherited score percentage of 30.7% of 163 inherited runners. They rank 22nd in MLB holding a save rate of 59.3%, and they have sent 397 relief pitchers to the mound so far this season.

The Boston Red Sox have gotten 101 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .979 (30th in pro baseball). The Red Sox have recorded 1,117 assists, 96 errors and have a total of 3,273 putouts over the course of the season. In 9,819 innings on the field, the Red Sox have earned a efficiency on defense of 68.9% (25th in baseball).

During his MLB career, Crochet has allowed 307 base hits while he has tallied 482 K's in 371 innings pitched. He has given up a total of 122 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.132 and being the owner of a FIP of 2.9. His strikeout to walk ratio is 4.27 and he has gone up against 1,522 batters during his MLB career. Crochet (22-24 mark in his career) has earned a 2.96 earned run average while allowing 7.4 hits per nine innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Miami (+110)

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