Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Prediction, 8/28/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Miami Marlins vs New York Mets

Date: Thursday, August 28, 2025

Location: Citi Field in Queens, NY

TV: Sportsnet New York

Odds/Point Spread: Miami (+126) New York (-152)

Citi Field is the site where the New York Mets (71-61) will go up against the Miami Marlins (62-70) on Thursday. The moneyline on this game has Miami at +126 while New York opens at -152. The over/under is 8.5. The starting pitchers are Adam Mazur and Clay Holmes.

The Marlins have hit 217 doubles as a unit and have hit 128 balls out of the park. Miami owns a slugging percentage of .395 and have been rung up 1,035 times, while taking a walk on 396 occasions. As a squad, the Miami Marlins are scoring 4.3 runs per contest, which has them at 19th in baseball. They have tallied 541 runs batted in in addition to 1,126 hits so far this season, and their batting average sits at .250. They have racked up 566 runs and have an OBP of .314.

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They have earned a K/BB ratio of 2.55 and the pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.29. Marlins pitchers have allowed 144 long balls and 638 total runs (24th in the league). Miami has conceded 1,108 hits (8.5 per 9 innings) as well as 589 earned runs. The Marlins hold a team ERA of 4.52 this season (24th in MLB), and the staff has rung up 1,039 batters. Their pitching staff has walked 407 hitters and their FIP sits at 4.15 as a unit on the campaign.

Marlins pitchers have gone to the mound with runners on base 102 times in addition to having 145 appearances in high leverage situations. The relief pitchers have accumulated 71 holds for the year (18th in MLB). The Marlins relief pitchers have compiled a save rate of 62.7% and have come into the game in 123 save situations. They have earned 32 saves for the year and have not converted 19 out of their 51 chances to save the game. The relievers have inherited 150 base runners over the course of the season with 32.7% of them ended up scoring. The Marlins have dispatched 407 relievers to the mound on the campaign.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have earned 3,517 putouts thus far, in addition to 1,133 assists and 65 errors. Their fielding percentage is currently at .986 which has them sitting 17th in baseball, and have a total of 91 double plays. The Marlins have turned 70.0% of balls in play into outs in their 10,551 innings on the field, which has them sitting 14th in the majors.

Mazur has taken the ball for 38 innings and has totaled 27 K's in his pro baseball career. His earned run average is 7.50 (32 ER's allowed) and his WHIP is 1.823. He has given up 45 base hits (10.5 hits per 9 innings) with 25 walks. Mazur (1-4 record in his career) has earned a FIP of 7.39 while he has faced 185 opposing batters in the majors.

The Mets have a team SLG% of .424 and they earn 4.64 runs per contest (10th in the league). They have 216 two-baggers, while taking a walk 464 times and scoring 612 runs. New York has compiled 176 home runs this year as well as 597 RBIs. They have struck out on 1,058 occasions (21st in MLB) and have recorded 1,098 base knocks. The New York Mets hold a team OBP of .326 and a batting average of .248 on the year.

The Mets hold a team WHIP of 1.312 with a FIP of 3.88 as a pitching staff on the season. Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 8.70 (1,134 strikeouts vs 469 walks). They rank 11th in the league as a pitching staff in total hits given up with 1,065. They have conceded 119 dingers and they yield 4.27 runs per 9 innings (12th in baseball). The New York pitching staff have yielded 554 runs on the campaign while having an ERA of 3.83 (497 earned runs conceded).

New York relievers hold an inherited score percentage of 34.4% of 209 inherited runners. Their relievers have taken the field 161 times in high leverage situations and on 141 occasions with runners on. With 143 save situations, the Mets have accumulated 84 holds and 23 blown saves. They sit at 21st in baseball holding a save rate of 61.0%, and they have sent 433 relievers to the mound on the season. New York has called on relievers to step onto the mound in 59 save opportunities and they have tallied 36 saves.

In their 10,521 innings on the field, the Mets have accumulated a efficiency on defense of 69.4% (20th in professional baseball). The New York Mets have gotten 97 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .987 (9th in pro baseball). The Mets have recorded 1,190 assists, 60 errors and have a tally of 3,507 putouts for the season.

Holmes (35-28 career win-loss record) is the owner of a 3.68 ERA while conceding 7.8 hits per 9 innings. His strikeout to walk ratio is 2.25 and he has gone up against 2,045 opposing hitters so far in his MLB career. He has conceded a total of 194 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.307 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.6. So far in his MLB career, Holmes has given up 412 base knocks while he has earned 469 punch outs in 474 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Miami (+126)

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