Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, 9/24/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies

Date: Wednesday, September 24, 2025

Location: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA

TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia

Odds/Point Spread: Miami (+106) Philadelphia (-128)

The Philadelphia Phillies (92-64) are hosting the Miami Marlins (76-80) at Citizens Bank Park on Wednesday. The line on this matchup has the Marlins at +106 and the Phillies are coming in at -128. The over/under comes in at 8.5. The expected starting pitchers are Ryan Weathers and Jesus Luzardo.

Miami has a slugging percentage of .397 and have been called out on strikes 1,203 times, while being walked on 468 occasions. They have earned 661 runs batted in as well as 1,348 hits so far this season, while their average at the plate sits at .252. The Marlins have earned 267 two-baggers as a team and have hit 151 balls out of the stadium. They have 692 runs scored and have an on-base percentage of .316. As a unit, the Miami Marlins are compiling 4.4 runs per outing, which is 16th in baseball.

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They have accrued a K/BB ratio of 2.55 and the pitching staff holds a WHIP of 1.30. Marlins pitchers have surrendered 187 home runs and also 774 total runs (26th in the league). Miami has conceded 1,329 base hits (8.6 per 9 innings) in addition to 715 earned runs. The Marlins have an ERA of 4.63 this year (25th in baseball), and their staff has rung up 1,234 hitters. They have walked 483 opposing batters and their FIP sits at 4.32 as a team so far this season.

The Marlins have dispatched 491 relief pitchers to the hill this season. The relief pitchers have inherited 175 base runners over the course of the season and 30.9% of those players ended up crossing the plate. They have accumulated 39 saves on the year and have blown 21 out of their 60 save opportunities. The Marlins relief pitchers have recorded a save rate of 65.0% and have stepped onto the mound in 147 save situations. The relief pitchers have recorded 85 holds so far this year (17th in MLB). Marlins bullpen pitchers have come into the game with runners on 122 times in addition to having 165 appearances in high leverage situations.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have accumulated 4,168 putouts thus far, in addition to 1,332 assists and 81 errors. Their fielding rate sits at .985 which ranks 17th in pro baseball, and have a total of 101 double plays. The Marlins have converted 70.0% of balls in play into outs out of their 12,504 innings on the diamond, which has them sitting 15th in professional baseball.

Weathers (12-22 career record) has a FIP of 4.80 while he has faced 1,189 opposing hitters in the majors. He has conceded 284 base hits (9.3 hits per nine innings) and has 97 walks. His earned run average is 4.87 (149 earned runs allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.383. Weathers has thrown 275 frames and is sitting with 227 K's in his career.

The Philadelphia Phillies have an OBP of .330 in addition to a team batting average of .260 for the season. They have been rung up on 1,271 occasions (20th in baseball) and have tallied 1,381 base hits. Philadelphia has knocked in 200 home runs on the year as well as 731 RBIs. The Phillies hold a slugging percentage of .431 and they are earning 4.85 runs per contest (7th in baseball). They have recorded 263 doubles, while taking a walk 516 times and notching 756 runs.

The Phillies hold a team WHIP of 1.246 in addition to having a FIP of 3.75 as a pitching staff on the season. They come in at 19th in MLB as a staff in total hits given up with 1,302. The Philadelphia pitching staff have surrendered 634 runs for the year and come in with a team ERA of 3.88 (597 earned runs yielded). Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 9.10 (1,406 strikeouts against 422 free passes). They have relinquished 171 home runs and they allow 4.13 runs per 9 innings (8th in baseball).

Philadelphia relievers hold an inherited score rate of 32.7% out of their 147 inherited base runners. Their relief pitchers have come in 170 times in high leverage situations in addition to 100 occasions with base runners. With 153 save situations, the Phillies have recorded 79 holds and 26 blown saves. They sit at 16th in the league with a save rate of 63.4%, and they have sent 486 relief pitchers onto the field this year. Philadelphia has had relief pitchers take the mound in 71 save opportunities and they have converted 45 saves.

In their 12,450 innings played, the Phillies hold a defensive efficiency of 69.0% (22nd in MLB). The Philadelphia Phillies have turned 99 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .990 (3rd in professional baseball). The Phillies have accrued 1,333 assists, 58 errors and have earned a total of 4,150 putouts this year.

Luzardo (40-41 career win-loss mark) is the owner of a 4.24 earned run average and has given up 8.2 hits per 9 innings. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.23 and he has gone up against 2,881 batters during his pro baseball career. He has allowed 324 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.253 and being the owner of a FIP of 4.2. So far in his pro baseball career, Luzardo has allowed 625 base knocks while tallying 765 punch outs in 688 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Philadelphia (-128)

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