Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, 10/9/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs

Date: Thursday, October 9, 2025

Location: Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL

TV: TBS

Odds/Point Spread: Milwaukee (-128) Chicago (+106)

The Chicago Cubs (92-70) will go up against the Milwaukee Brewers (97-65) at Wrigley Field on Thursday in Game 4 of the NLDS. The Brewers lead the series 2-1 after losing 4-3 in Game 3. The line on this matchup has the Brewers at -128 and the Cubs are priced at +106. The total comes in at 7.5. The pitchers taking the mound will be Freddy Peralta and Matthew Boyd.

Milwaukee has a slugging % of .403 and have been called out on strikes 1,266 times, while taking a walk on 564 occasions. They have amassed 750 RBI's as well as 1,423 hits for the season, while their team batting average comes in at .258. The Brewers have accumulated 265 doubles as a squad and have hit 166 baseballs out of the stadium. They are sitting with 806 runs and have an on-base percentage of .332. As a team, the Milwaukee Brewers are scoring 5.0 runs per game, which ranks them 3rd in baseball.

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The Brewers have an ERA of 3.58 over the course of the season (2nd in baseball), and the staff has rung up 1,432 hitters. Brewers pitchers have given up 168 long balls and 634 runs in total (3rd in the league). Their pitching staff has walked 534 opposing batters and their FIP comes in at 3.91 as a team for the year. Milwaukee has given up 1,237 hits (7.7 per 9 innings) and 574 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 2.68 and the pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.23.

Brewers bullpen pitchers have gone to the mound with runners on 145 times as well as having 187 appearances in high leverage situations. The relief pitchers have notched 107 holds so far this season (4th in baseball). The Brewers relievers have a save percentage of 68.2% and stepped onto the hill in 177 save situations. They have recorded 45 saves so far this season and have blown 21 of their 66 save opportunities. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 218 base runners so far this year and 31.7% of those players ended up crossing the plate. The Brewers have sent 550 relief pitchers to the hill over the course of the season.

The Miami Marlins have earned 4,326 putouts on the year, as well as 1,297 assists and 76 errors. Their fielding rate is holding at .987 which ranks 10th in pro baseball, and have a total of 122 double plays. The Brewers have converted 70.9% of baseballs in play into outs out of their 12,978 innings on the field, which ranks them 5th in baseball.

Peralta has taken the mound for 930 innings and is sitting with 1,153 strikeouts so far in his career. His earned run average is 3.59 (371 earned runs allowed) and his WHIP is 1.133. He has conceded 694 base knocks (6.7 hits per nine innings) and has 360 walks. Peralta (70-42 career mark) is the owner of a FIP of 3.54 while he has gone up against 3,853 batters in the major leagues.

The Cubs have a SLG% of .430 and they earn 4.90 runs per contest (5th in MLB). They have 267 two-baggers, while walking 554 times and putting up 793 runs. Chicago has accumulated 223 home runs on the season as well as 771 RBIs. They have been called out on strikes on 1,277 instances (25th in baseball) and are sitting with 1,371 base hits. The Chicago Cubs have accumulated an on-base percentage of .320 and a batting average of .249 for the season.

The Chicago pitching staff have allowed 649 runs for the season while holding an ERA of 3.79 (605 earned runs relinquished). They have allowed 202 long balls and they relinquish 4.07 runs per 9 innings (8th in baseball). The Cubs are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.177 in addition to having a FIP of 4.16 as a unit for the year. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 7.90 (1,265 strikeouts against 405 walks). They sit at 10th in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits relinquished with 1,284.

Sitting with 177 save situations, the Cubs have recorded 110 holds and 20 blown saves. Chicago has called on relievers to step onto the hill in 64 save chances and they have come away with 44 saves. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the mound 158 times in high leverage situations and on 101 occasions with runners on. Chicago bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score rate of 33.8% out of their 142 inherited runners. They are ranked 4th in baseball holding a save rate of 68.8%, and they have sent 523 relievers to the mound this season.

In 12,915 innings played, the Cubs are sitting with a defensive efficiency of 71.9% (2nd in MLB). The Chicago Cubs have turned 117 double plays and have notched a fielding percentage of .989 (4th in professional baseball). The Cubs have recorded 1,342 assists, 61 errors and have notched a total of 4,305 putouts for the year.

During his career, Boyd has surrendered 1,053 base hits and he has 1,045 strikeouts in 1,087 frames. Boyd (60-77 career mark) has a 4.58 ERA while giving up 8.7 hits per 9 innings. He has allowed 553 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.277 and a FIP of 4.5. His strikeout to walk ratio is 3.11 and he has faced 4,614 batters in his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Chicago (+106)

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